地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.1

• •    下一篇

全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程

樊杰(), 王亚飞, 汤青, 周侃()   

  1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-20 修回日期:2014-12-10 出版日期:2015-01-15 发布日期:2015-01-15
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:樊杰(1961-),男,陕西西安人,博士生导师,研究员,主要从事区域可持续发展问题研究。E-mail: fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)择优项目(KEJ-EW-ZY-004) 、国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830741)、国家发展和改革委员会发展规划项目资助

Academic Thought and Technical Progress of Monitoring and Early-warning of the National Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity (V 2014)

Jie FAN(), Ya-fei WANG, Qing TANG, Kan ZHOU()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Geography Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2014-11-20 Revised:2014-12-10 Online:2015-01-15 Published:2015-01-15

摘要:

建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制,是全面深化改革的一项创新性工作。从资源环境承载能力的科学内涵出发,以区域可持续发展为指向,探究资源、环境等构成的承载体——自然基础同承载对象——人类生产生活活动之间形成的“压力-状态-响应”过程,提出资源环境承载能力预警是从资源环境约束上限或人口经济合理规模等关键阈值开展的超载预警,以及从自然基础条件变化或资源利用和环境影响变化态势开展的过程预警的学术思路。在探讨承载能力预警指标体系选取原则的基础上,构建陆域和海域差异化的预警指标体系和总体技术流程。采用土地资源压力、水资源利用强度、环境胁迫程度、植被盖度变化作为基础指标进行地域全覆盖评价;针对城市化地区、农业地区、牧业地区、生态地区,分别选择灰霾污染程度、耕地面积增减状况、草蓄平衡指数、生态环境质量变化状态作为专项指标,确定各类专项指标的关键阈值并进行分类评价;最后进行复合,形成在鲜明主体功能定位指向下的差别化评价方法、取得具有一致性表达的评价结果,并开展资源利用效率和环境污染压力两方面的过程评价,以辅助反映中国资源环境承载能力和可持续发展能力预警状态,为提出限制性措施建议和完善监测预警机制提供科学依据。

关键词: 资源环境承载能力, 监测, 预警, 技术方法, 主体功能区

Abstract:

It is an innovative work of comprehensive deepening reforms of China to establish the mechanism of monitoring and early-warning of carrying capacity. Based on the scientific connotation of the carrying capacity of national resources and environment and oriented to regional sustainable development, this article explores the “pressure-state-response” process of the interaction between the carrying body: the natural foundation (which consists of resources, environment, ecology and disasters) with the carrying object: the human production and life activities, and presents the academic thought that the early-warning of the national resources and environment carrying capacity is an overload early-warning according to the cap of the constraints of resources and environment or the population and economic rational scales or other key thresholds, and also presents a process early-warning in terms of the changes of the natural basic conditions or the tendencies of the impact of resource utilization and environmental changes. According to the exploration on the principles of early-warning carrying capacity, this article constructs the differential indicator system and the overall technical process of early-warning of marine and terrestrial resources and environment carrying capacity. Land resources stress index, water resources use intensity index, environmental stress strength index and vegetation coverage change range index are chosen as basic indicators to conduct an overall regional evaluation, and different specific indicators, such as the pollution level of dust-haze, the increase and decrease of arable land, equilibrium index of grass and livestock and the variation of eco-environmental quality, are chosen to conduct the specific evaluation respectively for the urbanized areas, major grain producing areas, pastoral and semi-pastoral areas and ecological function areas, and then the key thresholds of these indicators are determined to conduct classifying evaluation. Finally, this article integrates all the evaluations and puts forward an evaluation method which shows the differentials in terms of major function oriented zone and evaluation results of consistent expression, and then carries out the process evaluation using two indexes of resource utilization efficiency and environment pollution pressure to reflect auxiliary the early-warning state of China's resources and environment carrying capacity and sustainable development abilities, thus providing a scientific basis for the proposed recommendations for restrictive measures and the improvement of monitoring and early-warning mechanisms.

Key words: resources and environment carrying capacity, monitoring, early-warning, technologies and methods, major function oriented zone ( MFOZ )

中图分类号: 

  • X24