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全国资源环境承载能力监测预警（2014版）学术思路与总体技术流程

1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
• 收稿日期:2014-11-20 修回日期:2014-12-10 出版日期:2015-01-15 发布日期:2015-01-15
• 作者简介:

作者简介：樊杰(1961-),男,陕西西安人,博士生导师,研究员,主要从事区域可持续发展问题研究。E-mail: fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn

• 基金资助:
中国科学院科技服务网络计划（STS计划）择优项目（KEJ-EW-ZY-004） 、国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830741)、国家发展和改革委员会发展规划项目资助

Academic Thought and Technical Progress of Monitoring and Early-warning of the National Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity (V 2014)

Jie FAN(), Ya-fei WANG, Qing TANG, Kan ZHOU()

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Geography Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
• Received:2014-11-20 Revised:2014-12-10 Online:2015-01-15 Published:2015-01-15

Abstract:

It is an innovative work of comprehensive deepening reforms of China to establish the mechanism of monitoring and early-warning of carrying capacity. Based on the scientific connotation of the carrying capacity of national resources and environment and oriented to regional sustainable development, this article explores the “pressure-state-response” process of the interaction between the carrying body: the natural foundation (which consists of resources, environment, ecology and disasters) with the carrying object: the human production and life activities, and presents the academic thought that the early-warning of the national resources and environment carrying capacity is an overload early-warning according to the cap of the constraints of resources and environment or the population and economic rational scales or other key thresholds, and also presents a process early-warning in terms of the changes of the natural basic conditions or the tendencies of the impact of resource utilization and environmental changes. According to the exploration on the principles of early-warning carrying capacity, this article constructs the differential indicator system and the overall technical process of early-warning of marine and terrestrial resources and environment carrying capacity. Land resources stress index, water resources use intensity index, environmental stress strength index and vegetation coverage change range index are chosen as basic indicators to conduct an overall regional evaluation, and different specific indicators, such as the pollution level of dust-haze, the increase and decrease of arable land, equilibrium index of grass and livestock and the variation of eco-environmental quality, are chosen to conduct the specific evaluation respectively for the urbanized areas, major grain producing areas, pastoral and semi-pastoral areas and ecological function areas, and then the key thresholds of these indicators are determined to conduct classifying evaluation. Finally, this article integrates all the evaluations and puts forward an evaluation method which shows the differentials in terms of major function oriented zone and evaluation results of consistent expression, and then carries out the process evaluation using two indexes of resource utilization efficiency and environment pollution pressure to reflect auxiliary the early-warning state of China's resources and environment carrying capacity and sustainable development abilities, thus providing a scientific basis for the proposed recommendations for restrictive measures and the improvement of monitoring and early-warning mechanisms.

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