地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 1207-1219.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1207

• •    下一篇

中速增长:中国经济的可持续发展

陆大道()   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-16 修回日期:2015-10-09 出版日期:2015-10-20 发布日期:2015-10-25
  • 作者简介:陆大道(1940-),安徽省桐城人,中国科学院院士、研究员。经济地理专业,长期从事国土开发、可持续发展及城镇化研究。E-mail:ludd@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院学部咨询项目“中国经济增长速度的基本要素和支撑系统研究”和国家自然科学基金项目(41530634)资助

Moderate-speed Growth:Sustainable Development of China's Economy

Da-dao LU()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2015-09-16 Revised:2015-10-09 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-25

摘要:

中国实现了国民经济的长期高速增长,但已面临着突出的结构性难题。针对这一问题,不循以投资、消费和出口论证未来经济增长速度的传统路径,而对支持经济增长的资源(能源)、环境(承载力)及建立在资源环境基础上的城镇化和发展模式等支撑系统能力进行了分析。在这些分析基础上,进行了综合集成研究并得出结论:中国经济将较快地进入中速增长。中速经济增长,将为建设经济强国和实现中国和谐社会提供重要的机遇和空间。

关键词: 经济增长, 支撑系统, 资源与环境, 城镇化, 发展模式, 中速增长

Abstract:

China’s national economy has experienced a long period of rapid growth, but prominent structural problems have already appeared. Instead of following the traditional research approach of investigating the speed of future economic growth through investment, consumption and export, this article analyzes the capacities of systems which support economic growth, including resource (energy), environment (bearing capacity) and the urbanization and development patterns on the basis of resources and environment. It includes seven aspects:It points out that the long period of high-speed-but-low-efficiency economic growth has led to the structural problems at the current stage. It analyzes the serious situation of China’s environmental pollution. It argues that excessive consumption of natural resources may bring about severe national security issues. It indicates that urbanization is the most important supporting factor of the high-speed economic development of our country.It holds that the development patterns of “world factory” of low-end products and relying on investment which have been practiced for a long period of time are important concepts and supports of the high-speed economic development of China. It also argues that China has taken full advantage of backwardness which has limits in fact. Finally, based on practice and international experience, it analyzes the relationships between the speed of economic growth and employment, the influence of the country, and economic transformation briefly. Based on these analyses, a meta-synthetic research is conducted and the following conclusions are arrived at: China’s economic development will enter a stage of moderate-speed growth rather quickly. The economic growth of a moderate speed will create significant opportunities and spaces for building economic superpower and achieving a harmonious society in China.

Key words: economic growth, supporting system, resources and environment, urbanization, development patterns, moderate-speed growth

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9