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### 基于熵值-突变级数法的国家战略经济区环境承载力综合评价及障碍因子——以长吉图开发开放先导区为例

1. 1.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,河南 开封 475001
2.河南大学环境与规划学院,河南 开封 475001
3.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林 长春 130102
• 收稿日期:2014-11-30 修回日期:2015-05-25 出版日期:2015-01-20 发布日期:2015-01-20
• 作者简介:

作者简介：赵宏波（1985-）,男,河南长垣人,博士,讲师,主要从事经济地理与区域发展研究。E-mail:zhaohbhhwm@163.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41371135、411051128、41430637）、吉林省科技引导计划软科学项目（20120635）、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目课题（KZCX2-YW-342-2）资助

### Integrated Assessment and Obstacle Factors of Environmental Carrying Capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones Based on Entropy and Catastrophe Progression Methods：A Case Study in Changchun-Jilin-Tumenjiang Development and Opening-up Pilot Area

Hong-bo ZHAO1,2(), Yan-ji MA3, Chang-hong MIAO1,2

1. 1.Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development& Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475001 China
2.College of Environment and Planning, Henan University,Kaifeng, Henan 475001,China
3. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China
• Received:2014-11-30 Revised:2015-05-25 Online:2015-01-20 Published:2015-01-20

Abstract:

The environmental carrying capacity is a parameter to measure the capacity degree between human being social activities and the environment. To study the theories and quantification, methods of environmental carrying capacity is of significance in reality for directing human beings economic behaviors and harmonizing the relationships between social development and environment. With the rapid development of social economy and population growth sharply in National Strategic Economic Zones, the resource consumption and pollutant emission are increasing accordingly, which made resources and environment system under tremendous pressure, this situation would impact the level of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones. According to the catastrophic characteristics of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones, we selected Changchun-Jilin-Tumenjiang development and opening-up Pilot Area as the research object. Based on the entropy and catastrophe progression methods, we built an index system to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity, in which Nature-Economy-Society (N-E-S) indexes are included. Using obstacle degree models, we analyzed the temporal pattern of environmental carrying capacity and the obstacle factors from 2000 to 2011.Results are shown as follows：1) Temporally, the level of environmental carrying capacity rose from weak to moderate level from 2000 to 2011. 2) The proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, industrial waste water emissions, cultivated land fertilizer usage, the per Capita GDP, the energy consumptions per GDP and economic density are the main obstacle factors affecting the environmental carrying capacity. The approach established in the article has a lot advantages when dealing with municipal projects under complex evaluation problems and it does not use any weight, only need to arrange indicators in an order of important degree according to the inherent logic relationship among indicators, the shortcoming of making the subjectivity of the artificial weight evaluation in very large limit has also been avoided, as the same time optimizing the standard evaluation procedure,and could identify the temporal variation characteristics of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones ,and better reflect the key factor, providing a basic approach for improving environmental carrying capacity level of National Strategic Economic Zones.

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