1960~2005年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.012.1599

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对蒸发悖论这一科学问题,对1960~2005年的蒸发皿蒸发资料进行系统研究,全面分析中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化特征、探究中国各气候区蒸发皿蒸发变化的敏感因子及主要影响因素。研究表明： ① 利用模糊聚类FCM算法,将中国分成3个蒸发皿蒸发量变化差异区：东中南分区（中国南部、中部、西南部以及东部）;西北分区（中国西北部）和中国东北至西南的狭长分布带;② 蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势分布具有明显区域性：中国南部、东部、中部及西北部,蒸发皿蒸发量以显著下降趋势为主,其中显著上升站点零星分布于东南沿海、西南、洞庭湖及西北地区的西北部;中国东北部至西南狭长分布带中密集分布显著上升及无明显变化趋势的站点;③ 对蒸发皿蒸发量与4种气象要素进行敏感性分析,研究发现东南分区、西北分区和狭长分布带的敏感因子均为相对湿度。由此可知,相对湿度是影响中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化的关键因子。

关键词: 蒸发皿蒸发量, 蒸发悖论, 时空分布, 模糊聚类分析, Modified Mann-Kendall趋势检验

Abstract:

Taking pan evaporation paradox as a key scientific assumption, this study collected and analyzed daily meteorological data from 588 rain stations over China using FCM regionalization method and Modified Mann-Kendall trend test. The results indicate that: 1) China is divided into 3 homogeneous climate regions with the help of FCM algorithm of fuzzy clustering: East-middle-south region (the south, middle, southwest and east China); West-north region(the northwest China); A long and narrow strip between the cluster a and b extending from northeast to southwest China; 2) significant decreasing pan evaporation can be found in southern, central, southwestern, eastern and northwestern China. Stations with significant increasing pan evaporation seem to be distributed sporadically across China. Besides, the strip zone extending in the NE-SW direction is dominated by significant/non-significant increasing trends of pan evaporation; 3) Sensitivity analysis indicates that relative humidity is the principal influencing factor for pan evaporation. Generally, in northwestern, northern and northeastern China, relative humidity has an adverse relation with pan evaporation, implying pan evaporation paradox in China and also intensifying hydrological cycle in these regions. In southeastern China, particularly the middle and lower Yangtze River basin and the Pearl River basin, relations between pan evaporation and relative humidity are relatively complex, showing that more factors than relative humidity can have impacts on pan evaporation changes, such as cloud coverage, temperature and aerosol concentration. Local features of aerodynamic and radiative drivers of the hydrological cycle and their regional responses to climate changes, and also different features of underlying ground may play considerable roles in pan evaporation changes.

Key words: pan evaporation, pan evaporation paradox, spatiotemporal patterns, Fuzzy clustering, Modified Mann-Kendall test

中图分类号:

P426.2+1

祁添垚, 张强, 王月, 肖名忠, 刘剑宇, 孙鹏. 1960~2005年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(12): 1599-1606.

Tian-yao QI, Qiang ZHANG, Yue WANG, Ming-zhong XIAO, Jian-yu LIU, Peng SUN. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Pan Evaporation in 1960-2005 in China: Changing Properties and Possible Causes[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2015, 35(12): 1599-1606.

图/表 7

图 1

表1

评价模糊聚类分析分区的7种指标"

指标	定义
Partition Coefficient（PC）	$PC c = 1 N ∑ i = 1 c ∑ j = 1 N u ij$
Classification Entropy（CE）	$CE c = 1 N ∑ i = 1 c ∑ j = 1 N u ij log (u ij)$
Partition Index（SC）	$SC c = ∑ i=1 1 c ∑ k=1 N 1 N (u ij) m \| x j - v i \| \| 2 N i ∑ k = 1 c \| v k - v i \| \| 2$
Separation Index（S）	$S c = ∑ i = 1 c ∑ k = 1 N (u ij) 2 \| x j - v i \| \| 2 Nmi n i, j \| v k - v i \| \| 2$
Xie and Beni's Index（XB）	$XB c = ∑ i=1 N 1 c ∑ k=1 N 1 N (u ij) m \| x j - v i \| \| 2 Nmi n i, j \| v k - v i \| \| 2$
Dunn's Index（DI）	$DI c = mi n i ∈ c {mi n j ∈ c, i ≠ j {mi n x ∈ C i, y ∈ C i d (x, y) ma x k ∈ c {ma x x, y ∈ C d (x, y)}}}$
Alternative Dunn Index（ADI）	$ADI c = mi n i ∈ c {mi n j ∈ c, i ≠ j {mi n x ∈ C i, y ∈ C i \| d y i, v i - d x i, v i \| ma x k ∈ c {ma x x, y ∈ C d (x, y)}}}$

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

图5

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	东南分区		西北分区		狭长分布带
	相关系数	P值	相关系数	P值	相关系数	P值
年变化
气温	0.18	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.04	0.58
相对湿度	-0.30	0.00	-0.32	0.00	-0.26	0.00
风速	0.21	0.00	0.29	0.00	0.22	0.00
日照时数	0.18	0.00	0.25	0.01	0.13	0.08
夏季
气温	0.45	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.23	0.00
相对湿度	-0.46	0.00	-0.40	0.00	-0.46	0.00
风速	0.23	0.00	0.35	0.00	0.17	0.02
日照时数	0.36	0.00	0.29	0.00	0.28	0.00
冬季
气温	0.18	0.00	0.09	0.38	0.07	0.36
相对湿度	-0.45	0.00	-0.38	0.00	-0.30	0.00
风速	0.27	0.00	0.04	0.65	0.11	0.16
日照时数	0.24	0.00	0.17	0.08	-0.01	0.88