地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 224-230.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.02.224

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

夏季鄂海阻高活动天数的年际变化及其前期征兆分析

杨旭1,2,3, 刘刚3,4, 廉毅2,3, 尚博5   

  1. 1. 中国人民解放军理工大学, 江苏南京211101;
    2. 吉林省气象科学研究所, 吉林长春130062;
    3. 中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室, 吉林长春130062;
    4. 吉林省气象台, 吉林长春130062;
    5. 长春市气象局, 吉林长春130051
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-18 修回日期:2014-05-08 出版日期:2015-02-20 发布日期:2015-02-20
  • 作者简介:杨旭(1987-),女(蒙古族),吉林白城人,助理工程师,主要研究方向为全球变化区域相应、气候与环境.E-mail:yxu_2011@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41175083,41275096,4140594)和公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201106016,GYHY201006020,GYHY201106015)资助.

The Decadal Variation and the Early Sign of the Summer Okhotsk Blocking Highs' Activity Days

YANG Xu1,2,3, LIU Gang3,4, LIAN Yi2,3, SHANG Bo5   

  1. 1. PLA University of Science and Technology, Nnajing, Jiangsu 211101, China;
    2. Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province, Changchun, Jilin130062, China;
    3. Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation and East Asian Monsoon, Changchun, Jilin 130062, China;
    4. Jilin Meteorological Observatory, Changchun, Jilin 130062, China;
    5. Changchun Meteorological Beneau, Changchun, Jilin 130051, China
  • Received:2014-01-18 Revised:2014-05-08 Online:2015-02-20 Published:2015-02-20

摘要:

利用1951~2009年NCEP/NCAR高度场月平均资料、全球海表温度月平均资料、国家气候中心提供的东北地区24 站逐月温度资料、鄂霍次克海阻塞高压(东阻)活动天数等数据,采用相关和奇异值分解分析(SVD)方法,分析夏季(6~8 月)东阻活动天数的年际变化及其前期征兆,结果表明:夏季东阻活动天数年际变化阶段性明显,21 世纪以来不仅处于强盛后期明显下降趋势阶段,而且年际变率显著增大;夏季东阻活动天数与中国东北地区中部及东部的温度呈显著负相关;春季至夏季赤道东太平洋(NINO3 区)SSTA(特别是1977~2009 年)呈ElNiño 位相是夏季东阻活动的最重要强迫源,当赤道东太平洋为El Niño 状态,以及阿拉伯海与北太平洋西风漂流区为暖海温时,夏季东阻活动天数偏多;与夏季同期大西洋海温的SVD1 模态表明,当大西洋海温SSTA整体上处于冷(暖)位相分布时,东阻活动天数偏少(多);夏季东阻活动天数与春季NPO和极涡面积指数相关存在着的年代际变化特征,1951~1976 年,夏季东阻活动天数仅与春季北半球极涡面积指数、亚洲极涡面积指数呈显著正相关,1977~2009 年,不仅与春季极涡面积指数呈正相关信号消失,而且,1951~2009 年与春季NPO指数呈显著的正相关信号,在此期间也迅速减弱消失.

关键词: 鄂海阻高, 海温, 前期征兆, 夏季东北温度

Abstract:

The averaged monthly reanalysis data, including height data(HGT) and global sea surface temperature (SST) from 1951 to 2009 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NECP-NCAR), the averaged monthly temperature data of 24 stations in Northeast China provided by the National Climate Center, and the data of activity days of Okhotsk blocking highs are used to investigate the decadal variation and the early sign of the Okhotsk blocking highs' activity days, by using the method of correlation analysis and the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) methods. The results show that the summer's Okhotsk blocking highs' activity days have a interannual variability of distinct stage. Since twenty-first century Okhotsk blocking highs' activity days were significantly decreased during the late strong stage with an increasing interannual variability. There is a significant negative correlation between the Okhotsk blocking highs' activity days and the temperature in middle and east of Northeast China in summer. From spring to summer,the SSTA (especially in 1977-2009) in El Niño phase is the most important source of Summer Okhotsk blocking highs' activity forced in the eastern equatorial Pacific (NINO3). When the eastern equatorial Pacific is in the El Niño state, and the SSTA is warmer in the area of Arabia sea and the west wind drift in North Pacific, there will be more Summer Okhotsk blocking highs' activities. The first mode of SVD indicates that,when the Atlantic SSTA on the whole is in the cold (warm) phase,the Okhotsk blocking highs' activity days are shorter (longer). The correlation between the Okhotsk High activity days and spring NPO and polar vortex area index has an interdecadal variation feature. During 1951-1976, the Summer Okhotsk High activity days only reveals a significant positive correlation with the spring the northern hemisphere polar vortex and the Asia polar vortex area index. The signal of positive correlation with spring polar vortex area index disappears from 1977 to 2009, moreover, the signal of the positive correlation with the spring NPO index declines rapidly in 1951-2009.

Key words: sea surface temperature, early signs, summer temperature in Northeast China, Okhotsk Blocking high

中图分类号: 

  • P466