地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 268-274.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.03.268

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

西部地区城镇化水平与经济人口发展变化研究——基于2000~2010年西部地区十二个省区面板数据

尤鑫   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;中共江西省委党校社会经济发展战略研究所, 江西南昌330003
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-12 修回日期:2014-04-27 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 作者简介:尤鑫(1980-),女,内蒙古呼和浩特人,副研究员,主要从事生态经济学方面研究。E-mail:youxin138@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    科技部软科学项目(20121BBA10045)、江西省社会科学研究"十二五"(2012 年)规划项目(12YJ62)、中德合作管理培训项目资助(2012ZDPX02)、2013 年中共中央党校重点调研课题(Z201309)资助。

Change and Relationship Between the Urbanization, Economy and Population inWestern Regions

YOU Xin   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; The Party School of the Jiangxi Provincial Committee, Communist Party of China, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330003, China
  • Received:2014-01-12 Revised:2014-04-27 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

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摘要：

对2000~2010年的西部地区12个省(区)人口和经济(GDP)面板数据进行了分析,模拟人口和经济与城镇化水平的关系,分析了中国西部地区"十五"和"十一五"期间城镇化、经济和人口发展变化特征,及人口、经济发展水平与省(区)城镇化水平之间的关系。研究结果发现:2000~2010年,西部地区实际的城镇化水平平均值是39.0%,远低于全国平均值(47.2%)。西部地区平均GDP年均增长率12.34%,高于全国平均水平(10.48%)。四川、内蒙古、广西、陕西、重庆对全国的GDP贡献率最高,且波动最大。"十一五"期间,西部地区内蒙古城镇化水平最高,高于全国平均水平,西藏的城镇化水平最低;重庆在2008年后城镇化水平超过全国平均水平;其他各省城镇化水平均低于全国平均水平。西部地区城镇化水平与经济呈正相关关系,地区经济越活跃,城镇化发展水平越高;西部地区人口和城镇化水平存在正负两种相关有关系,在排除GDP的影响外,重庆、四川、内蒙古的人口和城镇化呈现负相关关系,其他省区呈现正相关关系。"十五"和"十一五"期间西部12个省(区)经济和城镇化水平均有大幅度提高,区域发展政策对西部地区城镇化水平的发展具有政策引导和宏观调控作用。

关键词: 城镇化, 西部地区, 人口

Abstract:

Cities and towns have also been a rapid development as the organizational form of the advanced productive force, and gradually become the dominant force in the society and life. Urbanization has a profound impact on the change of community economy and the distribution and flow of population. This article analyzed the development conditions of the west provinces by the panel data from 2000 to 2010, and analyzed the relationship between urbanization, population and economy (GDP). It revealed the change and relationships of urbanization, economy and population of twelve provinces in West China during the periods of"Ten Five-Year Plan"and "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". The results showed that during 2000 to 2010, the 10-year average actual level of western region urbanization was 39.0%, far below the 10-year average actual level of national urbanization of 47.2%. The average annual GDP growth rate of the western region was 12.34%, higher than the national average growth rate of 10.48%. The country's contribution degrees of the increment of GDP of Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Shaanxi, and Chongqing were higher than other province in west china. During "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the highest level of urbanization was Inner Mongolia in western region, higher than the national average; the lowest level of urbanization was Tibet; after 2008, the urbanization level of Chongqing was higher than the national average, but those of other province in west China were below the national average. There was a positive correlation between the level of urbanization and regional economies. The economy was more active, the level of urbanization was higher. The population had a positive and negative influence correlation with the level of urbanization. Excluding of the GDP impact, there was the negatively correlation between population and urbanization of Chongqing, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia. The level of economy and urbanization has been greatly improved in the twelve western provinces during periods of "Fifteen Five-Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". China's macroeconomic policies have the guidance and macro-control functions on the level of urbanization.

Key words: population, urbanization, western region

中图分类号: 

  • F019