地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 346-351.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.03.346

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

暴雨洪灾风险评估研究进展

刘家福1,2, 张柏1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林长春130012;
    2. 吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院, 吉林四平136000
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-14 修回日期:2014-05-06 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 作者简介:刘家福(1975-),男,吉林敦化人,副教授,博士(后),从事遥感与GIS在资源环境、自然灾害等领域的应用研究。E-mail:liujiafu750506@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院重点部署项目课题(KZZD-EW-08-02)、吉林省自然科学基金项目(201215224)、四平市社会科学基金项目(201118)资助。

Progress of Rainstorm Flood Risk Assessment

LIU Jia-fu1,2, ZHANG Bai1   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130012, China;
    2. College of Tourism and Geographical Sciences, Jilin Normal University, Siping, Jilin 136000, China
  • Received:2014-01-14 Revised:2014-05-06 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

摘要:

洪灾风险评估是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤,作为非工程性防洪措施的一种,要及时、准确地把握洪水灾害的多方面特征。首先对洪灾风险形成机理、洪灾风险评估与区划、洪灾风险评估方法3 个方面进行国内外研究现状及分析,指出当前洪灾风险评估中在评估指标体系、评估方法及模型、风险演变驱动机制等方面尚存在的问题,最后,对洪灾风险评估中的发展趋势进行了展望。

关键词: GIS, 中国, 粮食单产, 空间变化, 暴雨, 洪灾风险评估, 洪灾

Abstract:

With the deepening of the disaster research worldwide as well as China's rapid economic development in the past three decades, people both within China and around the world have paid more and more attention to the awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. The risk assessment is one of the most important and basic study areas and has thus become increasingly important and urgent for China. The risk assessment is not only for the risk analysis, which has become an important part of disaster prediction, damage assessment, and disaster reduction decision. The risk assessment has also a great significance for the disaster risk during the development, utilization of resources, disaster defense, and governance and reducing disaster plan. In addition, this type of assessment could provide the scientific basis for the rapid assessment and decision making when suffering disasters. Flood is one of the most devastating events among the disasters. It is well-acknowledged that flood risk assessment is the first step in the management of flood risk. As a kind of non-engineering flood control measures, this type of assessment aims to obtain the flood disaster status both timely and accurately. In order to reduce the harm caused by the rainstorm flood disaster as much as possible, and to understand the occurrence and development of the rainstorm flood disaster from the scientific sense, the assessments of regional flood risk has become one of the hottest issues in the current academic research. Firstly, this article elaborated the basic concept of the rainstorm flood disaster. Second, we investigated the current literature status both domestically and internationally on three aspects including the formation mechanism of flood risk assessment, risk assessment and regionalization of flood, and flood risk assessment method. We further pointed out the existing research problems on the establishment of the evaluation index system, the determination of the weight of the assessment index system, the evaluation method and model, and the driving mechanism of risk change. Finally, this paper carried on the predictions on the development trend of flood risk assessment from several aspects including the data processing, the temporal and spatial dimensions, and the method of risk evaluation. We believe that this study could become one of the most important handy references to help researchers and it may guide future studies in the investigation of flood risk assessment.

Key words: GIS, China, Grain Yield, Spatial Variation, rainstorm, flood risk assessment, flood disaster

中图分类号: 

  • X43