地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 427-432.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.04.427

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区域能源碳排放系统开发及应用

黄蕊1,2, 王铮2,3,4(), 邓吉祥5, 吴静3   

  1. 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京 210023
    2.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210023
    3. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京 100080
    4. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200062
    5.中共湖南省委党校,湖南 长沙 410006
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-25 修回日期:2014-05-12 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:黄 蕊(1987-),女,河南焦作人,博士,主要研究方向为计算地理学。E-mail: huangrui4420@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家重大研究计划(973)项目(2012CB955803)资助

Regional Carbon Emissions System Development and Application

Rui HUANG1,2, Zheng WANG2,3,4(), Ji-xiang DENG5, Jing WU3   

  1. 1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
    2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geogrphical Information Resource Development Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
    3. Institute of Policy and Management Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China
    4.Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    5. Hunan Party School of Provincial Committee of Chinese Communist Party, Changsha, Hunan 410006, China
  • Received:2014-01-25 Revised:2014-05-12 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

摘要:

气候保护需要落实到区域层面上,区域实施碳减排政策前需要对自身的碳排放需求进行核算,开发区域能源碳排放系统以支持政府决策显得尤为必要。在介绍区域能源碳排放需求的经济动力学模型基础上,基于GIS的区域能源碳排放需求系统的开发过程,给出了应用实例。基于区域能源碳排放需求分析系统,可以方便地计算和查询中国各省市自治区未来的能源碳排放需求。基于GIS模块,通过模型用户可以对比不同区域的能源碳排放,并可方便地存储和输出。例如,以江苏省和山东省为例进行对比,可以发现山东省的能源碳排放总量和人均碳排放都比江苏省大。模型设置不同的情景分析,给各地政府实施碳减排措施提供决策支持,如以天津市为例,模拟了不同政策情景下对天津未来能源碳排放量的影响。此外,系统实现了面向国际谈判需求的多区域合成的碳排放需求估计,为国家参与气候谈判争取更多的主动权,对高度发展中国家的碳排放趋势进行的预测结果显示在平稳增长趋势下,高度发展中国家的能源消费高峰值和能源碳排放高峰值均出现在2029年。

关键词: 碳排放, 人均碳排放, 系统开发

Abstract:

Appropriate management measures are required for the areas involved in climate protection. According to these requirements, the Regional Carbon Emissions Requirements Analysis System (RCERAS) was developed to provide data support and policy analysis for the implementation of regional carbon emission reduction policies. This article briefly shows the economic dynamics model of the regional demand for carbon emissions, as well as the development and design of the GIS-based RCERAS. With RCERAS, future carbon emissions demand of China's provinces and autonomous regions can be calculated easily. The results of energy carbon emissions can be queried, stored and displayed. With the help of GIS, the users can get the pictures of different regions and compare them directly, as well as export the image. In this article the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province are compared. Shandong’s carbon emissions are much higher than Jiangsu’s carbon emissions both from the point of the amounts and per capita. Different scenario analysis are made to provide decision support to local governments to implement carbon emission reduction measures, including energy structure regulation, industry structure adjustment and the mix of both. In this article, Tianjin is taken as an example, the result shows the effects of different reduction measures. International-oriented multi-regional synthesis of carbon emissions demand can also be calculated by implementing the system, which can provide more information and strive for more initiative for our government to participate in the climate negotiations. In the study, we take high developing countries as a whole and estimate their future energy consumptions and CO2 emissions. The results show that peak year of their energy consumption and carbon emissions would be in 2029.

Key words: carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita, system design

中图分类号: 

  • F205