地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 456-463.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.04.456

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石油城市经济系统脆弱性动态演变及调控途径研究——以大庆市为例

杨艳茹1,2, 王士君1(), 陈晓红3   

  1. 1.东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林 长春 130024
    2.东北林业大学园林学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040
    3.哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150025
  • 收稿日期:2014-07-25 修回日期:2014-12-05 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨艳茹(1979-),女,黑龙江鹤岗人,讲师,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城乡区域规划与区域可持续发展。E-mail: yangyr206@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41101548、41301169)教育部人文社会科学项目(12YJC790163)、东北林业大学中央高校基本科研项目(DL13BC14)资助

Dynamic Evolution and Control Approaches of Petroleum City's Economic System Vulnerability: A Case Study of Daqing City

Yan-ru YANG1,2, Shi-jun WANG1(), Xiao-hong CHEN3   

  1. 1.School of Geographical Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun , Jilin 130024, China
    2.College of Landscape Architecture, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150040, China
    3.College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150025, China
  • Received:2014-07-25 Revised:2014-12-05 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

摘要:

石油城市是人地相互作用十分强烈的人地系统,具有典型的脆弱性特征。在对典型石油城市大庆市经济系统脆弱性定性分析的基础上,构建经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系和评估模型,运用综合评价法、灰色关联度分析法及BP神经网络模型对大庆市经济系统脆弱性程度进行评估,并在此基础上预测2014~2023年大庆市经济系统脆弱性演化趋势。结果表明:① 17 a间大庆市经济系统的脆弱性程度整体上呈现波动下降态势,脆弱性指数由1996年的0.686降至2012年的0.283,目前已处在较低脆弱水平。2012年大庆市经济系统脆弱性仅低于克拉玛依市,高于其他石油城市。② 经济系统脆弱性主要影响因素为刚性产业结构和不合理的投资结构。③ 预测未来10 a,大庆市经济系统脆弱性先升后降,整体呈现下降趋势。依据大庆市经济系统脆弱性特征及影响因素,结合脆弱性演变规律,提出大庆市经济系统脆弱性的规避、拮抗、适应等调控途径。

关键词: 经济系统, 脆弱性, 调控, 石油城市

Abstract:

Petroleum city, as a special kind of human-land system with intense interactions between human activities and natural environment, has typical vulnerability characteristics. Based on the qualitative analysis for economic system vulnerability (ESV) of Daqing City, the article establishes indicators system and assessment model .Then the comprehensive index method , grey relational grade analysis and BP neural network model are used to assess the ESV. The article also predicts the evolution trend of ESV from 2014 to 2023. The results indicated that the ESV of Daqing City had shown a declining trend from 1996 to 2012 and in a relatively low level at present, with the vulnerability index dropping from 0.686 (1996) to 0.283 (2012) and sensitivity index increasing from 0.142 (1996) to 0.280 (2012). Compared with other petroleum cities ,the ESV of Daqing in 2012 was just lower than Karamay, while higher than other petroleum cities. The dominant factor of ESV is responsive ability. Grey relational grade analysis was used to further explore the degree of influence of each index on the development level of the ESV. The results showed that the ESV of Daqing was seriously affected by rigid industry structure and unreasonable investment structure. BP neural network model was used to predict the ESV on the basis of present situation. The results showed that the ESV of Daqing City will increase first and then decrease in the future ten years. According to the characteristics and causes, combining the evolution rules of ESV, this paper puts forward the evadable, antagonistic and adaptable control approaches.The evadable approache is that Daqing City should grasp the life cycle of the petroleum industry and accurately grasp the economic transition opportunity.The antagonistic approache is to extend the industrial chain and develop the petrochemical industry.The adaptable approache is to improve the new industries and urban economic function.These control approaches can provide theoretical basis for reducing the ESV of Daqing, and then achieve its economic transformation and sustainable development.

Key words: economic system, vulnerability, control, petroleum city

中图分类号: 

  • F407.22