地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 464-470.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.04.464

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基于地形起伏度的山区人口密度修正——以岷江上游为例

刘颖1,2, 邓伟1(), 宋雪茜1,2,3, 周俊1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川 成都 610041
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 成都信息工程学院,四川 成都 610225
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-29 修回日期:2014-04-02 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘 颖(1986-),女,回族,四川成都人,博士研究生,主要从事山区可持续发展研究。E-mail: liuying@imde.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41471469)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2015CB452706)资助

Population Density Correction Method in Mountain Areas Based on Relief Degree of Land Surface:A Case Study in the Upper Minjiang River Basin

Ying LIU1,2, Wei Deng1(), Xue-qian SONG1,2,3, Jun ZHOU1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu ,Sichuan, 610041, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
  • Received:2014-01-29 Revised:2014-04-02 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

摘要:

山区人口承载能力评价是山区国土空间管理的基础之一,而准确的人口密度数据是正确评价人口承载能力的基础。传统的人口密度算法并未考虑地形起伏度对人口分布带来的影响,不能客观反映山区人口聚集程度。引入地形起伏度、海拔高度因子,选择岷江上游作为研究区,首先运用GIS技术提取地形起伏度,再运用SPSS软件对人口密度与地形起伏度相关性进行分析,确定县域不同地形起伏度与海拔人居适宜标准,剔除阈值以外不适宜人口聚居的面积,对人口密度进行修正。研究结果表明:① 岷江上游人口分布受地形起伏度的影响显著,二者的对数曲线拟合度为0.89,汶川县、茂县、理县、黑水县与松潘县地形起伏度与人口分布的相关性分别为:0.841、0.773、0.643、0.696和0.730;② 应用地形起伏度对岷江上游人口密度修正,为真实反映山区人口密度提供了新的考量依据,剔除了人口密度空间噪音,5县地形起伏度与海拔适宜标准分别为:汶川3.2°和3 693 m,茂县4°和4 033 m,理县4.3°和3 790 m,黑水4.4°和3 853 m、松潘4.2°和3 966 m;地形起伏度高值区面积越大,修正前后的人口密度偏差越大,地形起伏度较大的理县和黑水县修正后的人口密度分别提高了7.8倍和5.6倍;地形起伏度较低的汶川县与茂县修正后人口密度仅分别提高2.3倍与2.4倍;③ 岷江上游人口潜在压力大,不同区域应因地制宜,汶川和茂县采取重点集约发展战略,理县和黑水县采取适度开发战略,松潘县应采取恢复与保护生态策略。

关键词: 山区, 人口密度, 地形起伏度, 海拔高度, 岷江上游

Abstract:

A prerequisite for the protection and governance of mountainous areas is the scientific evaluation of the population carrying capacity, which depends on an accurate assessment of population density. The prior method of calculating population density does not consider the effect of the relief degree of land surface (RDLS) on population distribution. Therefore, it cannot accurately reflect the degree of population aggregation, especially in mountainous areas. Thus, this study selects the Upper Minjiang River Basin as the research area and introduces the RDLS and elevation factor. First, it extracts the exact population value by means of geographic information system technology. Second, it conducts the correlation analysis between the population distribution and the RDLS by using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Then, based on the correlation and the population distribution analysis, this method is used to determine the appropriate standard of RDLS and elevation in different mountainous areas. According to the corresponding results, it calculates and corrects the population density of the upper Minjiang River Basin. The results show that: 1) The population distribution of the upper Minjiang River Basin is strong affected by RDLS, correspondingly, the R2 value between the RDLS and the population of the upper Minjiang River Basin is 0.89. The correlation coefficients between the RDLS and the population density of different county (Wenchuan county, Mao county, Li county, Heishui county and Songpancounty) are 0.841, 0.773, 0.643, 0.696 and 0.730, respectively. 2) The RDLS and elevation are introduced to revise the population density in the upper Minjiang River Basin. According to the results of the population cumulative distribution curve, the rational RDLS for human habitation in Wenchuan County, Mao County, Li County, Heishui County and Songpan County are 3.2°, 4°, 4.3°, 4.4° and 4.2°, respectively. The corresponding elevation is 3 693 m, 4 033 m, 3 790 m, 3 853 m and 3 966 m. 3) The population density has been corrected is clearly different from the previous result. The higher RDLS of mountainous areas, the more obvious discrepancy exists. For example, compared with previous result, the revised population density in Li County and Heishui County increase by 7.8 and 5.6 times, respectively. In contrast, the revised population density in Wenchuan county and Mao county increase by 2.3 and 2.4 times, respectively. 4) The upper Minjiang River Basin is confronted with greater pressure of population growth. Thus the population distribution of this area should be guided by local social, economic, topographic and other conditions. Specifically, Wenchuan county and Mao county should adopt intensive development strategy, Li County and Heishui County should adopt moderate development strategy and Songpan County should adopt ecology repair strategy.

Key words: mountain areas, population density, relief degree of land surface, elevation, the upper Minjiang River Basin

中图分类号: 

  • k901.3