地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 476-482.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.04.476

• • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年珠江流域降雨多尺度时空变化特征及其影响

唐亦汉1,2, 陈晓宏1,2()   

  1. 1.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东 广州 510275
    2. 华南地区水循环与水安全广东普通高校重点实验室,广东 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-08 修回日期:2014-08-18 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:唐亦汉(1991-),女,江苏无锡人,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail: aegean.sea.91@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际合作重大和重点项目(51210013, 50839005),国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC21B0103),水利部公益项目(201201094, 201301002-02, 201301071-02),广东省科技厅项目(2010B050300010),广东省水利科技创新项目(2011-11),中英瑞气候变化适应项目广东气候变化风险评估及适应对策研究(ACCC/20100705-1)资助

Multi-scale Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influence of Precipitation Variation in Zhujiang River Basin During the Last 50 Years

Yi-han TANG1,2, Xiao-hong CHEN1,2()   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275,China
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275,China
  • Received:2014-05-08 Revised:2014-08-18 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

摘要:

利用珠江流域38个站点54 a日降水资料,采用Kendall非参数检验法、线性回归及空间克里格插值,对多种降雨指数时空变化及影响进行了研究。结果表明:① 珠江流域西部年降雨有减少趋势,流域大部分的降雨日数则有增加趋势;② 流域降雨具有季度、月份集中性,其中,季度集中性趋于空间均匀化,月份集中性趋向空间极端化;③ 极端降雨阈值东高西低,全区极端降雨在20世纪60、80年代末有突变现象,P0.01%设计值在21世纪达到最高。综合多尺度降雨时空变化结果进行分析,将珠江流域划分为广东(包括江西)、广西中北部(包括湖南)、广西西南及云贵4个降雨特征区,广东尤其是珠三角地区及广西中北部地区应注重防洪安全,广西西南与云贵地区应注重保障用水安全。

关键词: 珠江流域, 多尺度, 降雨时空变化, 降雨指数

Abstract:

Basing on daily precipitation data from 1959-2012 in 38 gauging stations in Zhujiang River Basin (PRB), we have adopted Kendall test and linear regression method in studying the spatio-temporal characteristics of multiple precipitation indexes as studied time series, conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) In PRB, annual precipitation decreases towards west and declines along time; RRB drops from center to surroundings and keeps an increasing trend in most part of the basin; 2) Precipitation is seasonal and moderately concentrated in June; PCI becomeseven in the whole basin while differences between FI6 values expands; 3) Threshold value of extreme rainfall descends from east to the west and jumps are found in 1960s and 1980s; volume of extreme rainfall with same recurrence interval comes to its peak in 21st century; 4) Four precipitation regions are divided as (a)Guangdong District, (b) north-central part of Guangxi District, (c) south-west of Guangxi District and (d) Yunnan-Guizhou District; flood prevention is crucial for aand b districts especially Pearl River Delta region, and water safety is major concern for c and d District.

Key words: Zhujiang River Basin, multi-scale, spatio-temporal variation in precipitation, precipitation index

中图分类号: 

  • TV122+2