地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 515-520.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.515

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中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析

张建伟1,2(), 苗长虹2(), 姜海宁3   

  1. 1.安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南 安阳 455000
    2.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心/环境与规划学院,河南 开封 475001
    3. 浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江 金华 321004
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-13 修回日期:2014-10-10 出版日期:2015-05-20 发布日期:2015-05-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张建伟(1984-),男,河南周口人,博士后,讲师,主要从事城市和区域创新研究。E-mail:jwzhang12@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41430637)资助

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of China’s GDP Deviation Degree

Jian-wei ZHANG1,2(), Chang-hong MIAO2(), Hai-ning JIANG3   

  1. 1.School of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Anyang Normal University, Anyang, Henan 455000, China
    2.Center for Yellow RiverCivilization and Sustainable Development/College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475001, China
    3. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, Zhejiang, 321004, China
  • Received:2014-05-13 Revised:2014-10-10 Online:2015-05-20 Published:2015-05-20

摘要:

采用突变级数法、ESDA及空间计量经济模型对1985~2012年中国GDP的偏离度的时空差异进行了研究,结果发现:① 除2009年外,自1998年来中国GDP偏离度一直在不断增加,国家政策及全球经济运行状况对其有重要影响;② 2012年和2009年相比,GDP偏离度空间格局变动不大,长三角、京津冀及中部地区一直是偏离度较大的区域;③ 空间相互作用是中国GDP偏离度拉大的重要原因;④ GDP总量、建筑业及固定资产投资总额对中国GDP偏离度具有重要影响;⑤ 能耗及GDP速度对GDP偏离度产生负向作用,主要是由其发展阶段决定的。

关键词: GDP, 偏离度, 空间计量经济模型

Abstract:

China′s GDP deviation degree is studied by Catastrophe progression method, ESDA and spatial econometric model from 1985 to 2012. Five conclusions are arrived as follows: 1) Except for 2009, since 1998 China′s GDP deviation degree had been increasing, the national policy and the global economic situation has important influence on the China's GDP deviation degree; 2) Compared to 2009, the spatial pattern of GDP deviation degree has almost no change in 2012, the regions which have been greater deviation degree were the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and central regions; 3) Spatial interaction is the important reason of China's GDP deviation degree widening; 4) The total GDP, the construction industry and the total investment in fixed assets has a significant impact on China's GDP deviation; 5) Energy consumption and speed of GDP have negative effects on China's GDP deviation degree, mainly by the development stage decision.

Key words: GDP, deviation degree, spatial econometric model

中图分类号: 

  • F222.1