地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 822-830.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.07.822

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人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例

王志宝1(), 孙铁山2, 张杰斐2   

  1. 1.山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,山东 济南 250014
    2. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-01 修回日期:2014-05-25 出版日期:2015-07-20 发布日期:2015-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：王志宝（1983-）,山东荣成人,博士,讲师,主要从事经济地理、城市与区域规划研究。E-mail:xiaobao1840@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（41171099）、国家社会科学基金重大项目（10zd&022）、国家自然科学基金项目（41371005）资助

Regional Types’ Division of Population Aging and Analysis on Population Aging Regional Evolution: Based on China, America, Japan and R O Korea

Zhi-bao WANG1(), Tie-shan SUN2, Jie-fei ZHANG2   

  1. 1.College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China
    2.School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2014-01-01 Revised:2014-05-25 Online:2015-07-20 Published:2015-07-20

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摘要：

利用中、美、日、韩四国一级行政区划近20 a的人口普查数据,进行人口老龄化区域类型的划分,总结这4个国家人口老龄化区域演变特征,并借助所构建地分析框架,进行人口老龄化区域演变实证分析。以人口老龄化的程度与速度作为划分其区域类别的主要依据,将人口老龄化划分成8个区域类型。通过人口老龄化区域类型的划分发现,日本已处于超老龄社会阶段,美国则一直在老龄社会阶段初期徘徊,而中韩刚进入浅度人口老龄化阶段。在实证分析与理论分析基础上,归纳总结发现：① 人口老龄化区域演变的影响因素大致分成4类：区位效应、社会保障、经济发展和人口惯性;② 经济差异直接导致区域人口老龄化的两极分化;③ 社会保障差异引导人口老龄化区域演变的方向。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 区域类型, 区域演变机制, 区域空间格局

Abstract:

As one of an important development trend and social problem in the first half of 21 century, population aging not only affects each regional sustainable development, but also changes global economic growth pattern. With provincial-level administrative units' census data of China, the United States, Japan and R O Korea for nearly 20 years, this article makes a division on population aging regional types, sums up the characteristics of population aging regional evolution, and constructs a theoretical framework of population aging regional evolution to do the related empirical analysis. In this article, with the extent and speed of population aging as the main basis for dividing its regional categories, population aging is divided into 8 regional types. By division of population aging regional types, this article finds: the differences of population aging regional evolution in 4 countries are very obvious. These countries are at different stages of population aging, namely, Japan has been in the stage of super-aging society, the United States has been hovering in the early stage of aging society, while China and R O Korea have just entered in the early stage of population aging. Based on the empirical and theoretical analysis, this article arrive the following three conclusions: 1) The factors of population aging regional evolution are roughly divided into 4 categories, namely, location effect, social security, economic development and population inertia. Among them, location effect is essentially the same, while population inertia remains demographic transition. Economic development is the dominant factor of population aging in junior stage, while social security is the dominant factor of population aging in the late stage. 2) Regional economic development differences directly results in the regional polarization of population aging. In the different stages of population aging, the regional polarization of population aging is significantly different, like the regional spatial structure of population aging as Japan and China. 3) The differences of social security guide the direction of population aging regional evolution. The geographical equalization extent of social security directly affects the regional distribution of aging population. This phenomenon is mainly obvious in Japan and the United States.

Key words: population aging, regional type, mechanism of regional evolution, regional spatial structure

中图分类号: 

  • K902/C913