近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.08.1027

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据1960~2013年辽西北地区50个雨量站逐日降水量数据和同期太阳黑子相对数数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法对辽西北地区近54 a来的降水量变化趋势进行分析,采用Morlet小波分析技术分析了研究区降水量和太阳黑子的变化周期,并计算了相应的小波系数。结果表明：辽西北地区降水量年际变化表现为微弱的下降趋势,突变点在1996~1997年之间,突变前后降水趋势由升转降。太阳黑子与降水距平值的负相关关系显著,且存在5 a的滞后性,对降水周期影响较小,与降水量相关关系复杂。

关键词: 辽西北, 降水量, 太阳黑子, Mann-Kendall检验, 小波分析

Abstract:

The solar activity and the precipitation are important factors in the research of drought and flood. Study on the relationship between sunspot and precipitation is very important for the further study of regional drought and flood. Therefore this paper selects the typical characteristics of climate in northwest of Liaoning Province as the study area. This article calculates the 50 rainfall stations of daily precipitation data in 1960-2013 in northwest of Liaoning Province and sunspot data during the same period. Combined with the precipitation anomaly and accumulative anomaly, calculation the sliding of an average values of 3 years, Get the analysis result of changes in precipitation conditions and trends; Using the Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trend of precipitation in recent 54 years in the northwest region of Liaoning Province, and detecting the mutation years; The wavelet coefficient of precipitation and sunspots in northwest area of Liaoning Province were calculated based on the Morlet wavelet analysis method, and drawing the distribution of wavelet coefficients contour maps and the wavelet variance diagram. According to the changes in the time series of 54 years for different time segmentation, analysis on correlation between them, and detect the significant. The results show that, in recent 54 years precipitation showed a decreasing trend in fluctuation, the mutation occurred in 1996-1997 years. The trend of precipitation change after the abrupt change by rising to decreased, and the trend are relatively stable. Sunspot activity influence on the extreme years precipitation anomaly and showed a significant negative correlation. Compared with the sunspot extremism years, there is a lag of 5 years for precipitation changes, the annual precipitation in northwest of Liaoning Province of the main cycle is not too much influence. In different period of time, correlation between sunspot and precipitation showed a complex performance in northwest of Liaoning Province.

Key words: northwestern Liaoning, precipitation, sunspot, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis

中图分类号:

P461.1

曹永强, 刘佳佳, 高璐. 近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 1027-1032.

Yong-qiang CAO, Jia-jia LIU, Lu GAO. Relationship Between Sunspots and Precipitation in Northwestern Liaoning in Recent 54 Years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2015, 35(8): 1027-1032.

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	m-1	m	m+1	小计	M-1	M	M+1	小计
1	-20.38	134.56	-63.11	51.07	-85.83	-94.54	157.91	-22.46
2	40.53	35.25	168.73	244.51	-39.91	31.25	-153.71	-162.37
3	120.06	133.89	61.89	315.84	-5.96	-96.63	92.55	-10.04
4	58.53	-25.86	-47.52	-14.85	-117.45	-85.66	-98.04	-301.15
合计				596.57				-496.02