气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.08.1051

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中国东北地区98个气象站点历史数据和WCRP多模式耦合CMIP3输出的IPCC SRES A1B、A2和B1气候变化情景下的降雨资料,计算3、6、12和24个月尺度上的标准化降水指数(SPI),结合M-K检测、EOF分解和小波分析,研究东北地区干旱的时空变化格局及其对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明：① SPI能较好地检测东北地区干湿变化状况,4个时间尺度上主要的空间模态具相似的分布型,其中12个月尺度SPI显示东北大部分地区在过去50 a干旱程度呈显著加剧、范围有明显扩大的趋势,其中南部和中部辽河流域是干旱严重区;② 干旱时间变化特征具明显的空间差异,南部干旱第一主周期为11 a,北部则为3.5 a;③ 气候变化情景下,2011~2060年的干旱以前30 a趋强,之后趋缓,且干旱高发区存在一定的北移趋势。

关键词: 干旱, 标准化降水指数, 时空模式, 气候变化, 东北地区

Abstract:

In order to capture the spatiotemporal patterns of drought vulnerability and predict its response characteristics to climate change in Northeast China (NEC), observed precipitation data sets of 98 meteorological stations in 1961-2010 and output datasets of the WCRP coupled multi-model (CMIP3) for IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenarios during 2011-2060 were engaged to calculate the commonly used Standardized Precipitation Index, which analyzed with the popular methods of Mann-Kendall detection, Empirical Orthogonal Function and Wavelet transformation. The main results can be concluded as following. Historical drought-wetness evolution in NEC could be properly detected by the SPI series, and drought severity in most areas significantly increased during last 50 years especially on the 12-month timescale. While drought conditions in southern part and Liao River basin in NEC are always most serious, the first four EOF loadings on different time steps show a similar distribution pattern with some local differences. The drought spatial coverage took on an obviously increasing trend accompanied with drastic inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the dominant period were differently identified for the south (11a) and the north (3.5 a). Under the three climate change scenarios, the period of the early 30 years would share most of the mega droughts during 2011-2060, and the A2 scenario may own more frequently and severe drought events than others; more importantly, the drought core may migrate northward to some extent.

Key words: drought, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), spatiotemporal patterns, climate change, Northeast China

中图分类号:

P467

卢洪健, 莫兴国, 孟德娟, 刘苏峡. 气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.

Hong-jian LU, Xing-guo MO, De-juan MENG, Su-xia LIU. Analyzing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Meteorological Drought and Its Responses to Climate Change Across Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.

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SPI值	等级	概率(%)	SPI值	等级	概率(%)
≥2.0	极端湿润	2.3	0.0~ -0.99	轻微干旱	34.1
1.5~1.99	严重湿润	4.4	-1.00~ -1.49	中等干旱	9.2
1.0~1.49	中度湿润	9.2	-1.50~ -1.99	严重干旱	4.4
0.0~0.99	轻微湿润	34.1	≤-2.0	极端干旱	2.3