地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 1051-1059.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.08.1051
卢洪健1,2, 莫兴国1, 孟德娟1,2, 刘苏峡1
收稿日期:
2014-02-17
修回日期:
2014-05-04
出版日期:
2015-08-20
发布日期:
2015-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介:卢洪健(1985-),男,江西修水人,博士研究生。主要研究方向为干旱影响及风险评估。E-mail:
基金资助:
Hong-jian LU1,2, Xing-guo MO1, De-juan MENG1,2, Su-xia LIU1
Received:
2014-02-17
Revised:
2014-05-04
Online:
2015-08-20
Published:
2015-08-20
摘要:
基于中国东北地区98个气象站点历史数据和WCRP多模式耦合CMIP3输出的IPCC SRES A1B、A2和B1气候变化情景下的降雨资料,计算3、6、12和24个月尺度上的标准化降水指数(SPI),结合M-K检测、EOF分解和小波分析,研究东北地区干旱的时空变化格局及其对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明:① SPI能较好地检测东北地区干湿变化状况,4个时间尺度上主要的空间模态具相似的分布型,其中12个月尺度SPI显示东北大部分地区在过去50 a干旱程度呈显著加剧、范围有明显扩大的趋势,其中南部和中部辽河流域是干旱严重区;② 干旱时间变化特征具明显的空间差异,南部干旱第一主周期为11 a,北部则为3.5 a;③ 气候变化情景下,2011~2060年的干旱以前30 a趋强,之后趋缓,且干旱高发区存在一定的北移趋势。
中图分类号:
卢洪健, 莫兴国, 孟德娟, 刘苏峡. 气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.
Hong-jian LU, Xing-guo MO, De-juan MENG, Su-xia LIU. Analyzing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Meteorological Drought and Its Responses to Climate Change Across Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.
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