地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 952-959.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.08.952

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基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例

杨新军(), 张慧, 王子侨   

  1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西 西安 710127
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-05 修回日期:2014-05-30 出版日期:2015-08-20 发布日期:2015-08-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨新军(1972-),男,陕西扶风人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事人文地理学理论与方法研究。E-mail:yangxj@nwu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41171127)和教育部人文社会科学项目(12YJC840040)资助

Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Social-ecological System Based on Scenario Analysis:A Case Study of Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong County

Xin-jun YANG(), Hui ZHANG, Zi-qiao WANG   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710127, China
  • Received:2014-01-05 Revised:2014-05-30 Online:2015-08-20 Published:2015-08-20

摘要:

人地系统及其脆弱性是地理学研究的核心内容。近年来,脆弱性研究对象逐渐由生态系统转变到人地耦合系统即社会-生态系统,由于该耦合系统具有多尺度扰动和多利益主体并存的特点,且易受不确定性的干扰,目前关于系统脆弱性评价方法难以解释系统的不确定性。选择榆中县中连川乡作为研究区域,尝试将社会与生态环境信息结合起来进行脆弱性研究。首先运用情景分析方法,确定当地社会-生态系统未来的情景变化的关键驱动力为干旱气候和政府决策,筛选出在两者组合下系统未来情景概率较高的3种情景S1(干旱减缓,有政策支持),S2(干旱缓解,无政策支持)和S3(干旱加剧,有政策支持)。通过实地调查,对多利益主体(农户、管理者和科研工作者)进行情景访谈,对不同利益主体对不同情景的可接受程度进行测度,结合社会-生态矩阵分析,得到不同利益主体对系统未来的可接受程度,以此判断利益主体在未来变化情景下的脆弱度。结果显示,在S1情景下,当地农民和管理者的脆弱性较低;在S2和S3情景下,当地农民和管理者的可接受度是负向的,表明其脆弱性增加,干旱加剧是影响当地未来发展的决定因素,政策支持在一定程度上弥补干旱带来的消极影响。根据不同利益主体的态度,提出未来当地发展的相关政策建议。

关键词: 社会-生态系统, 脆弱性, 情景分析, 榆中县

Abstract:

The vulnerability of human-environmental system is the key for geographical research. Social-ecological system (SES)and its resilience research provide a new idea and an integrated theoretical framework for Human-environmental analysis. In the latest decade, the objects of vulnerability study gradually transform from the ecological system to the Socio-ecological Systems, that is, the human-environmental coupled systems. As Social-ecological systems have multiple-scale panarchy and multiple differing stakeholders are involved, the traditional methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Province was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of different people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnerability of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios ( S1, S2 and S3) were filtered which is most likely to happen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffident scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were policy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low; in scenario 2 (Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support)and 3(there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently), the acceptability of farmers and local managers was negative-going and the vulnerability degree was high. Worsening drought determined the future of the study area, however, the policy support make up the negative impact to some extent. some policy suggestions were proposed for the development through analyzing the vulnerability of ,the local social-ecological systems. At last, the research on the vulnerability of human-environmental system combining social factors with ecological factors was reviewed.

Key words: social-ecological system(SES), vulnerability, scenario analysis, Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong

中图分类号: 

  • K902