关键词: 海洋灾害损失, 沿海地区经济增长, 格兰杰因果, 脉冲响应, 主成分分析

Abstract:

Marine disaster is a big obstacle to the social and economic development in coastal areas. China is one of the countries seriously affected by marine disasters. In the marine disaster control, loss evaluation is the core content of disaster grade division and risk prevention of marine disasters, and is also the key to study the relationship between marine disasters and economic.Theoretically, the marine disaster will disrupt the normal order of production, reduce economic efficiency, and affect the marine economy. But from a dynamic point of view, investment and consumption caused by marine disasters may also make the marine disasters have positive effects on the development of marine economy.Inaddition, the development of marine economy will increase the marine disaster losses. Therefore, the question that whether there is a correlation between the marine disaster losses and marine economic growth, is it positive or negative, is worth in-depth study. With the ocean development and exploitation in depth and breadth, marine disasters have become an important factor affecting the sustainable and healthy development of our marine economy. Evaluates the loss of marine disasters in the coastal areas of China from 1989 to 2011 by constructing the marine disaster loss index, and then analyzes the dynamic relationship between economic growth in coastal areas and marine disaster losses with Granger causality test and VAR model. The empirical analysis shows thatcoastal economic growth rate and the marine disaster losses show synergistic fluctuation trend; marine disaster brings direct economic losses to the development of the coastal area, but is not the main factor; yet the economic growth in coastal areas Granger causes the marine disaster losses, and has a durability effect. There are two main reasons: first, economic growth increased coastal economic density, the disaster bearing bodies are more susceptible to marine disasters; second, over exploitation and utilization of marine resources will damage the ecological environment of the sea, the frequent occurrence of red tide disaster is a good example.The "Eighteen report" clearly pointed out the macro goal that "improve the marine resources development ability, develop the marine economy, protect the marine ecological environment, and resolutely safeguard the national marine rights and interests", in view of this, improving the marine disaster emergency management ability and at the same time scientific development the marine economy is the correct selections of coastal areas for reducing the marine disaster loss.

Key words: marine disaster losses, economic growth coastal, Granger causality, impulse response, principal component analysis