关键词: 四化协调发展, 耦合协调度, ESDA, 障碍度, 吉林省

Abstract:

Taking the Jilin Province as a study case, this article used the methods of coupling coordination degree model, exploratory spatial analysis and obstacle degree model to study the spatio-temporal pattern and obstacle indicators of four modernizations coordination development at the level of county in 2003 and 2012. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The level of four modernizations is volatile and non-equilibrium, and the level of agricultural modernization shows an increasing trend. The spatial difference of industrialization and urbanization keeps reducing, and the spatial difference of informatization and agricultural modernization increases gradually. 2) The coupling degree of four modernizations development in Jilin Province is at low level on the whole, and the coupling degree in urban agglomeration of central Jilin and eastern border area is high relatively, the coupling degree in western inland is low. The coordinating degree mainly shows the serious disorder, moderate disorder and mild discord, and the sync phenomenon is obvious. 3) The similar region of four modernizations coordination changes from discrete distributions to weak agglomeration state. The hotspots of four modernization coordination are centralized in the regions of Changchun-Jilin, Yanbian and Tonghua. The hotspot counties have been decreased remarkably, and coldspot counties are increased gradually. 4) The output value proportion of tertiary industry, per capita GDP, the proportion of non-agricultural population, number of medical beds per ten thousand people and total turnover of postal and telecommunication services per capita were verified to be the first five obstacle indicators for further improvement of four modernizations coordination in 2003, and the output value proportion of secondary industry, the employment proportion of secondary industry, per capita gross industrial output value, average agricultural production per counties and average agricultural production per employee were verified to be the first five obstacle indicators for further improvement of four modernizations coordination in 2012. The order of sub-system obstacle degree is urbanization> agricultural modernization> industrialization> informatization. Finally, 3 driving forces of four modernizations coordination in Jilin Province have been drawn: regional policies, economic and industrial foundation, physical geography condition, and we put forward the main pathway to improve the level of four modernizations coordination. Generally speaking, the four modernizations coordination is complicate system engineering, and promoting the new urbanization development is also very long at the same time, therefore, some efforts should be made in the choices of index, methods and scale in the future.

Key words: coordinating development of four modernizations, coupling and coordinating degree, ESDA, obstacle degree, Jilin Province