地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 1109-1115.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.09.1109

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水资源环境与社会经济系统耦合发展的仿真模拟——以洞庭湖生态经济区为例

杜湘红1(), 张涛2()   

  1. 1.湖南师范大学商学院,湖南 长沙 410081
    2.中南大学信息科学与工程学院,湖南 长沙 410083
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-29 修回日期:2014-08-03 出版日期:2015-09-25 发布日期:2015-09-25
  • 作者简介:

    杜湘红(1971-),女,湖南长沙人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为生态经济管理。E-mail:6dxh@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项项目(2012DFB30030)资助

The Simulation to Coupling Development Between Water Resource & Environment and Socio-economic System: Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone as an Example

Xiang-hong DU1(), Tao ZHANG2()   

  1. 1.College of Business, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410081, China
    2.School of Information Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China
  • Received:2014-05-29 Revised:2014-08-03 Online:2015-09-25 Published:2015-09-25

摘要:

以洞庭湖生态经济区水资源环境与社会经济系统为研究对象,引入灰色关联度算法测度耦合状况,结合GM(1,1) 模型预测演化趋势,并进行仿真模拟。研究表明:2004~2013年生态经济区水资源环境优于社会经济发展状况,但水资源条件对快速增长的社会经济发展产生的约束作用较为明显,水资源与生态环境危机正在进入潜伏期;10 a间系统耦合度较高,处于较为协调发展的磨合耦合阶段,耦合度呈现大幅攀升后回落趋势,进一步对2014~2023年状况预测证实经济发展对水资源环境呈现越来越显著的胁迫效应。研究表明,应着力提高水资源利用效益,缓解水资源经济系统矛盾,实现社会经济和水资源环境的协调发展。

关键词: 水资源环境, 系统耦合, 灰色预测模型

Abstract:

Water resource is the vital foundation of the national economy and social development, lake ecological economic system is an essential water resource & environment and socio-economic coupling system based on water-related activities. Reducing the disorders and ensuring the coordination and common development of system can be solved effectively by the analysis of the coupling relationship between water resource & environment and socio-economy. The coupling degree and the evolutionary trend of water resource & environment and socio-economic system of the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone are calculated and simulated by the gray correlation algorithm together with the GM(1,1) model. The results demonstrate that 1) water resource & environment was superior to socio-economic development of the ecological economic zone in 2004-2013; 2) The role of water resource constraints on the rapid growth of socio-economic development is obvious, the coordinated development of the entire system is about to enter the threshold stage, water resource and ecological crisis are entering the latency period; 3) The further simulating results in 2014-2023 show that the socio-economic development in the ecological economic zone is beyond what the water resource can sustain. The sustainable development is in the presence of bottleneck of water resource; while the coupling degree is in the range of 0.578 to 0.641, the system is in the period of running-in, and the coordinated development of system can be achieved. The forecasting coupling degree in 2014-2023 is in the range of 0.500 to 0.800 that means it is a long running-in stage. The simulating coupling degree trend curve of the entire ecological economic zone, Changde District and Yueyang District appear to fall down after rapid rise in the period of 2004 to 2013, which shows that the rich water resource & environment can support the rapid economic development and social progress. The downward trend started from 2010 shows the stress effects on the water resource & environment by the rapid economic development in the previous stage. The further simulating coupling degree data of 2014 to 2023 show that most of the ecological economic zones continue the trend of decline in the coupling degree curve until the period of 2017 to 2018, which shows the stress and constraints affects on the socio-economic development by the water resource. The following slight rebound in curve is to do with the better water resource caused by the more investment and policy emphasized on water resource since the more developed economies. The above research demonstrates that ecology and environment issues should be drawn attention from the different perspectives, such as policy & regulations, economic development, aquatic ecosystem recovery. A variety of measures should be taken accordingly to increase the investment in environmental protection, accelerate the optimization of industry structure and technology innovation, and reconcile the conflicts between water resource & environment and socio-economic system. Meanwhile, the research suggests that it should focus on composite resource efficiency of allocating economic, community, energy and environment resources rather than pure economic waste. And it is significant to collaboratively push forward the development of ecology-friendly economic integration and economic ecology integration, reduce the water consumption, enhance the water use efficiency, and alleviate the conflicts between aquatic ecosystem and economy. As a result, these measures provide feasible solutions to promote coordinated development of aquatic resources environment and socio-economy in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone.

Key words: water resource & environment, system coupling, grey prediction model

中图分类号: 

  • F291