地理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 1156-1163.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.09.1156

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气候变化对中国古代财政平衡的影响

魏柱灯1(), 方修琦1,2, 苏筠1   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2014-04-08 修回日期:2014-10-01 出版日期:2015-09-25 发布日期:2015-09-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:魏柱灯(1986-),男,江西安远人,博士研究生,主要从事历史气候变化的社会经济影响与适应研究。E-mail: weizhudeng@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950103)、国家自然科学基金项目(41371201)资助

Climatic Impacts on the Fiscal Balance in Ancient China

Zhu-deng WEI1(), Xiu-qi FANG1,2, Yun SU1   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2014-04-08 Revised:2014-10-01 Online:2015-09-25 Published:2015-09-25

摘要:

以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末(220 BC~1910 AD)10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段(220 BC~31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD)和3个相对匮乏阶段(30 BC~440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD)。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。

关键词: 历史气候变化影响, 语义分析, 财政序列重建, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the 1 101 records of fiscal balance (surplus or deficiency) in ancient China extracted from 24 books dealing with the fiscal/economic history of China, this study first established the standards of fiscal level differentiation according to wording semantics. Then, a 2130-year-long (220 BC-1910 AD) fiscal sequence with decadal resolution is reconstructed to express the phase transition of fiscal balance in China. The relationship between fiscal fluctuation and climate change is further analyzed. It is found that fiscal fluctuations during 220 BC-1910 AD in China were featured cyclical changes. Four stages of relative fiscal surplus mainly distributed temporally during 220 BC-31 BC, 441-760 AD, 961-1210 AD, and 1381-1910 AD, respectively. Three stages of relative fiscal deficiency mainly were 30 BC-440 AD, 761-960 AD, and 1211-1380 AD, respectively. Fiscal balances during warmer/wetter periods were slightly better than that during colder/drier periods. Particularly, the probability for fiscal crisis increased significantly in a cold and dry climate. Correlation analysis shows that fiscal balance was positively and significantly correlated with both changes of temperature and precipitation. The long-run trends of fiscal fluctuation were strongly influenced by long-run changes of temperature as well as precipitation. Cold climate would affect agricultural production and incidence of wars and social unrests, which directly or indirectly influenced the imperial fiscal revenues and expenditures. However, there remained many other factors that would complicate the relationship between climate change and fiscal fluctuation. The results of moving correlation analysis indicated that climate-finance association obviously displayed an anti-phase pattern for certain periods. It is worth further explorations for the complex feedback mechanism among climate, finance and other multiple factors in different temporal and spatial scales.

Key words: historical climatic impacts, semantic analysis, fiscal proxy reconstruction, China

中图分类号: 

  • P467