中国城乡协调发展格局特征及影响因素

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建城乡协调发展的理论框架与指标体系,基于GIS技术和ESDA方法揭示中国地级市城乡发展协调空间特征,借助空间计量经济学模型探讨城乡协调发展影响因素。研究结果表明：① 城乡发展协调体系由要素、结构、功能、政策等层级构成,具有层级内协调与层级间互馈特征。② 城乡投资、产业、收入、消费等分项指标均存在明显的空间差异,投资协调指数、产业协调指数、收入协调指数、消费协调指数区域间差距依次减小。③ 城乡协调发展综合指数空间集聚特征明显,东中西分异,高值区集聚在东部沿海地区和中西部少数中心城市地区。④ 经济增长、城镇化、对农投资、消费能力的提高有助于城乡协调发展,教育投资、教育水平、基础设施建设对城乡协调发展的作用仍需进一步加强。

关键词: 城乡发展, 协调指数, 中国

Abstract:

Integrating urban and rural development is the strategy and mostly significant task of people-oriented urbanization. It is of importance to strengthen research on urban-rural coordinated development, to provide scientific supports for urban-rural planning and policy making. We first proposed the theoretical framework of urban-rural coordinated development and established coordinated index system. Then, by GIS and ESDA methods, spatial patterns and characteristics of urban-rural coordinated development were explored, and its influencing factors were analyzed based on spatial econometric model. The results are shown as follows: 1）The urban-rural coordinated development system consists of four subsystems, which are factors, structures, functions and policies. The coordinated urban-rural development depends on the mutual coordination and cooperation of elements within the subsystem and positive mutual feedback evolvement among the subsystems. 2） Sub-indices such as investment, industry, income and consumption between urban and rural areas take on significant spatial differences, respectively. The degree of variation of investment coordination index, industry coordination index, income coordination index and consume index reduces in turn. 3） Urban-rural integrated coordination index shows obviously spatial differences among the east, middle, northeast and west of China, and takes on spatial agglomeration. High-level areas of coordination index gather in the eastern coastal region and a few cities in the central and western China, while low-level areas are mostly located in the central and western China, especially showed in the provincial map. 4) Economic growth, urbanization, rural investment and domestic consumption had significantly positive effects on urban-rural coordination development, while urban investment had negative effects. Meanwhile, education investment, education level and infrastructure did not have significant effects due to the misallocation of resources between urban and rural areas. These findings are of use to integrate urban and rural development in different aspects. Firstly, we should appropriate urbanization models should be explored in different areas according to the areal characters and its urban-rural development transformation status. Secondly, it is essential for the Chinese authorities to change its traditional planning model and implement rural revitalization plan, especially improving rural infrastructure construction, public services and the comprehensive function of the town. Thirdly, we should reform binary urban and rural managing system gradually and moderately, according to taking a sufficient consideration of the status and trend of inside and outside urban-rural coordinated systems.

Key words: urban-rural development, coordination index, China

中图分类号:

F291.3

王艳飞, 刘彦随, 严镔, 李裕瑞. 中国城乡协调发展格局特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(1): 20-28.

Yanfei Wang, Yansui Liu, Bin Yan, Yurui Li. Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Urban-rural Coordinated Development in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(1): 20-28.

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准则层（权重）	指标层（权重）	指标解释
投资协调指数(0.312)	地方财政支农偏向性（0.322）	地方财政农林水利事物支出比重/区域一产产值比重（+）
投资协调指数(0.312)	城乡固定资产投资差异性（0.678）	城市人均固定资产投资/农村人均固定资产投资（-）
产业协调指数(0.256)	产业二元性（1）	（二三产业产值/二三产业就业人员数）/(第一产业产值/第一产业就业人员数)（-）
产业协调指数(0.256)	收入协调指数(0.292)	（二三产业产值/二三产业就业人员数）/(第一产业产值/第一产业就业人员数)（-）	城乡人均收入差距（1）	城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均纯收入（-）
消费协调指数(0.140)	城乡消费能力对比（0.559）	城镇居民人均消费性支出/农村居民人均生活消费支出（-）
消费协调指数(0.140)	城乡消费结构对比（0.441）	城镇居民消费恩格尔系数/农村居民消费恩格尔系数（+）

	Moran′s I值	期望值	标准差	z-value
投资协调指数	0.363	-0.003	0.033	11.061^***
产业协调指数	0.262	-0.003	0.034	8.042^***
收入协调指数	0.567	-0.003	0.035	17.164^***
消费协调指数	0.293	-0.003	0.034	8.723^***
城乡协调度	0.364	-0.003	0.035	10.417^***

	模型1（OLS）		模型2（SLM）		模型3（SEM）
	系数(t)	P	系数(t)	P	系数(t)	P
常数项（C）	0.683（34.311）	0.000	0.539（15.812）	0.000	0.690（33.061）	0.000
城镇人均固定资产投资（元/人）	-2.45E-06（-5.234）	0.000	-2.233E-06（-5.049）	0.000	-1.913E-06（-4.111）	0.000
农村人均固定资产投资（元/人）	1.30E-06（3.730）	0.001	1.21E-06（3.671）	0.000	1.103E-07（3.182）	0.001
地方财政人均教育支出（元/人）	-2.86E-05（-1.921）	0.056	-3.469E-05（-2.455）	0.014	-4.88E-05（-3.12）	0.002
地方财政人均农林水利支出（元/人）	9.31E-06（0.728）	0.467	1.694E-05（1.403）	0.160	1.953E-05（1.467）	0.142
外资投入比重（%）	0.260（1.664）	0.097	0.204（1.378）	0.168	0.087（0.531）	0.595
人均社会消费品零售额（元/人）	2.497E-06（3.282）	0.004	2.303E-06（2.852）	0.004	1.77E-06（3.659）	0.035
公路密度（km/km²)	0.003（0.633）	0.527	0.002（0.357）	0.721	0.001（0.172）	0.862
地形起伏度	-0.020（-4.785）	0.000	-0.015（-3.544）	0.000	-0.022（-4.249）	0.000
城镇化率	0.001（2.309）	0.022	0.001（2.499）	0.012	0.001（2.744）	0.006
ρ(空间滞后项）			0.208（5.122）	0.000
λ（空间误差项）					0.462（7.086）	0.000
统计检验
R²	0.534		0.574		0.604
F	42.09
logL	442.22		455.47		461.31
LR			20.645	0.000	38.18	0.000
AIC	-864.44		-888.92		-902.61
SC	-826.21		-846.87		-864.38