地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 20-28.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.01.003
王艳飞1,2(), 刘彦随1,3(
), 严镔1,2, 李裕瑞1
收稿日期:
2014-12-01
修回日期:
2015-04-24
出版日期:
2016-01-20
发布日期:
2016-01-20
作者简介:
作者简介:王艳飞(1987-),男,山东寿光人,博士研究生,主要从事土地利用与城乡发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Yanfei Wang1,2(), Yansui Liu1,3(
), Bin Yan1,2, Yurui Li1
Received:
2014-12-01
Revised:
2015-04-24
Online:
2016-01-20
Published:
2016-01-20
Supported by:
摘要:
构建城乡协调发展的理论框架与指标体系,基于GIS技术和ESDA方法揭示中国地级市城乡发展协调空间特征,借助空间计量经济学模型探讨城乡协调发展影响因素。研究结果表明:① 城乡发展协调体系由要素、结构、功能、政策等层级构成,具有层级内协调与层级间互馈特征。② 城乡投资、产业、收入、消费等分项指标均存在明显的空间差异,投资协调指数、产业协调指数、收入协调指数、消费协调指数区域间差距依次减小。③ 城乡协调发展综合指数空间集聚特征明显,东中西分异,高值区集聚在东部沿海地区和中西部少数中心城市地区。④ 经济增长、城镇化、对农投资、消费能力的提高有助于城乡协调发展,教育投资、教育水平、基础设施建设对城乡协调发展的作用仍需进一步加强。
中图分类号:
王艳飞, 刘彦随, 严镔, 李裕瑞. 中国城乡协调发展格局特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(1): 20-28.
Yanfei Wang, Yansui Liu, Bin Yan, Yurui Li. Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Urban-rural Coordinated Development in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(1): 20-28.
表1
城乡协调发展指数指标体系"
准则层(权重) | 指标层(权重) | 指标解释 |
---|---|---|
投资协调指数(0.312) | 地方财政支农偏向性(0.322) | 地方财政农林水利事物支出比重/区域一产产值比重(+) |
城乡固定资产投资差异性(0.678) | 城市人均固定资产投资/农村人均固定资产投资(-) | |
产业协调指数(0.256) | 产业二元性(1) | (二三产业产值/二三产业就业人员数)/(第一产业产值/第一产业就业人员数)(-) |
收入协调指数(0.292) | 城乡人均收入差距(1) | 城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均纯收入(-) |
消费协调指数(0.140) | 城乡消费能力对比(0.559) | 城镇居民人均消费性支出/农村居民人均生活消费支出(-) |
城乡消费结构对比(0.441) | 城镇居民消费恩格尔系数/农村居民消费恩格尔系数(+) |
表3
城乡协调发展的影响因素分析"
模型1(OLS) | 模型2(SLM) | 模型3(SEM) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数(t) | P | 系数(t) | P | 系数(t) | P | |
常数项(C) | 0.683(34.311) | 0.000 | 0.539(15.812) | 0.000 | 0.690(33.061) | 0.000 |
城镇人均固定资产投资(元/人) | -2.45E-06(-5.234) | 0.000 | -2.233E-06(-5.049) | 0.000 | -1.913E-06(-4.111) | 0.000 |
农村人均固定资产投资(元/人) | 1.30E-06(3.730) | 0.001 | 1.21E-06(3.671) | 0.000 | 1.103E-07(3.182) | 0.001 |
地方财政人均教育支出(元/人) | -2.86E-05(-1.921) | 0.056 | -3.469E-05(-2.455) | 0.014 | -4.88E-05(-3.12) | 0.002 |
地方财政人均农林水利支出(元/人) | 9.31E-06(0.728) | 0.467 | 1.694E-05(1.403) | 0.160 | 1.953E-05(1.467) | 0.142 |
外资投入比重(%) | 0.260(1.664) | 0.097 | 0.204(1.378) | 0.168 | 0.087(0.531) | 0.595 |
人均社会消费品零售额(元/人) | 2.497E-06(3.282) | 0.004 | 2.303E-06(2.852) | 0.004 | 1.77E-06(3.659) | 0.035 |
公路密度(km/km2) | 0.003(0.633) | 0.527 | 0.002(0.357) | 0.721 | 0.001(0.172) | 0.862 |
地形起伏度 | -0.020(-4.785) | 0.000 | -0.015(-3.544) | 0.000 | -0.022(-4.249) | 0.000 |
城镇化率 | 0.001(2.309) | 0.022 | 0.001(2.499) | 0.012 | 0.001(2.744) | 0.006 |
ρ(空间滞后项) | 0.208(5.122) | 0.000 | ||||
λ(空间误差项) | 0.462(7.086) | 0.000 | ||||
统计检验 | ||||||
R2 | 0.534 | 0.574 | 0.604 | |||
F | 42.09 | |||||
logL | 442.22 | 455.47 | 461.31 | |||
LR | 20.645 | 0.000 | 38.18 | 0.000 | ||
AIC | -864.44 | -888.92 | -902.61 | |||
SC | -826.21 | -846.87 | -864.38 |
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