地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 81-89.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.01.010

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2000~2010年南京都市区人口空间变动特征研究

曾文1(), 张小林1, 向梨丽2, 王亚华1   

  1. 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京 210023
    2.利兹大学地理学院,英国 利兹,LS2 9JT
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-22 修回日期:2015-05-08 出版日期:2016-01-20 发布日期:2016-01-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:曾文(1987-),男,山东东营人,博士研究生,主要从事城市地理学研究。E-mail: Alvin_z@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371172)、江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目资助资助

The Features of Population Redistribution of Nanjing Metropolitan Area in 2000-2010

Wen Zeng1(), Xiaolin Zhang1, Lili Xiang2, Yahua Wang1   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
    2.School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England
  • Received:2014-12-22 Revised:2015-05-08 Online:2016-01-20 Published:2016-01-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Science Foundation of China (41371172), Preponderant Discipline Construction Project of Jiangsu Colleges and Universities

摘要:

利用南京市第五次、第六次人口普查数据研究南京都市区2000~2010年人口空间变动及其规律。研究发现,① 10 a间南京都市区各地域人口均呈现增长态势,近郊区成为人口增长最为剧烈的区域;人口重心逐渐向南移动,同时人口分布的核心区域有向内收敛的趋势。② 根据测定系数、F检验与图像分析的综合判断,对数正态模型能够较好拟合人口分布的单核心结构,两年份曲线的变化表明郊区化的主体仍然是近郊区,尚未发展到远郊化的程度。多核心模型的拟合表明南京都市区已初步形成多核心结构,且主中心对人口仍具有强大吸引力;而多核心与单核心模型同时具有良好的拟合效果说明多核心结构尚未发育成熟。③ 南京都市区人口分布的空间异质性越来越高,人口分布趋于复杂,表明都市区正在向更加高级的阶段发展。

关键词: 人口空间变动, 郊区化, 南京都市区

Abstract:

Using the demographic data of fifth and sixth census, this paper analyzes the population redistribution in Nanjing metropolitan area from 2000 to 2010 and tries to find some laws. Firstly the authors analyze the general characteristics of population redistribution in metropolitan area, and finds that each area has experienced a population growth in the past ten years, while the population of suburb area increased the most. We also find that the population gravity center has been moving to the south gradually, and the core area of population distribution has the tendency of shrink inwards. Then we analyze the population redistribution of Nanjing metropolitan area with mathematical models. Based on the synthetic judgment of determination coefficient R2, F-criterion and curve image analysis, the lognormal model is the optimal choice to reflect the monocentric structure. The model curves’ changes indicate that suburbanization was still concentrated in the suburb area last ten years. The analysis of polycentric model illustrates that a polycentric structure has been formed initially in Nanjing metropolitan area, but the population still concentrates to the main center prominently, which is different from other Chinese cities. Both the polycentric and monocentric models have good fitting results reflects that the polycentric structure is not ripe yet compared with western cities. The analysis of population spatial variability reflects that the population heterogeneity has increased and population distribution is more and more complicated, both of which illustrate that the metropolitan area has been developing to a higher stage. On the basis of keeping the urban center livable and efficient through moderate aggregation, guiding people moving to the suburb and making the city form ripe polycentric structure may be the optimal way to develop the large cities of China in the future.

Key words: population redistribution, suburbanization, Nanjing metropolitan area

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9