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地理科学    2016, Vol. 36 Issue (2): 296-302     DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
北疆地区1961~2010年极端气温事件变化特征
张延伟1,2,3(),葛全胜2(),姜逢清4,郑景云2
1. 济南大学软实力中心,山东 济南 250002
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
3. 商丘师范学院环境与规划学院,河南 商丘 476000
4. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
Evolution Characteristics of the Extreme High and Low Temperature Event in North Xinjiang in 1961 - 2010
Yanwei Zhang1,2,3(),Quansheng Ge2(),Fengqing Jiang4,Jingyun Zheng2
1. Jinan University Soft Power Research Centre, Jinan 250002,Shandong, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. College of Enviromnent and Planning, Shangqiu and Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, Henan, China
4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Resources Research, CAS, Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang, China
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摘要 

根据1961~2010年北疆地区34个气象台站逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,定义高温和低温的阈值、频率及其强度,并采用线性趋势、EOF等方法对其研究分析。研究表明:北疆地区的高温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势。时间变化趋势分析发现该地区高温阈值呈现上升趋势。其中,夏季上升幅度最小,冬季上升幅度最大。频数分析发现天山山区极端高温频数变化要高于其他地区变化频数。北疆地区的低温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本也呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势。频数分析发现夏季频数总体呈现下降趋势。通过线性趋势和EOF分析表明北疆地区高温和低温事件强度、频数呈现增加的趋势。由于北疆属于干旱与半干旱地区,生态环境较为脆弱。极端气温趋势的增加会影响到该地区的水文、工业和农业管理。

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张延伟
葛全胜
姜逢清
郑景云
关键词 北疆高温阈值低温阈值 
Abstract

The high and low temperature events were analyzed based on the daily temperature observation data from 34 meteorological stations in North Xinjiang during 1961-2010 by using the methods of linear regression analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results show that: 1) The spatial distribution of the extreme highest temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the southeast part, and high value in the northwest part. And threshold value of the extreme highest temperature are a consistent upward trend, amount increases obviously in winter. The number of the extreme highest temperature processes increase linearly, while in Mid-Tianshan Mountains, there is an opposite trend. 2) The spatial distribution of the extreme low temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the east part, and high value in the west part. And threshold value of the extreme low temperature are a consistent downward trend in east and a consistent upward in west.The number of the extreme low temperature processes increase linearly, while in summer, there is a decrease trend. 3) As North of Xinjiang is an arid, semiarid-region, it means that the increase of extreme climate events should not be helpful for hydrologists, agriculturalists, emergency managers, industrialists.

Key wordsNorth of Xinjiang    high temperature    low temperature
收稿日期: 2015-07-02      出版日期: 2016-06-06
基金资助:国家科技支撑项目(2012BAC23B01、14CJY077)、河南省科技攻关课题(152102310354、132102310357) 资助
作者简介: 张延伟(1985-),男,山东枣庄人,讲师,从事极端气候事件诊断与预测研究.E-mail:zhangyanwei208@mails.ucas.ac.cn
引用本文:   
张延伟, 葛全胜, 姜逢清等 . 北疆地区1961~2010年极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(2): 296-302.
Yanwei Zhang, Quansheng Ge, Fengqing Jiang et al . Evolution Characteristics of the Extreme High and Low Temperature Event in North Xinjiang in 1961 - 2010[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(2): 296-302.
链接本文:  
http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017      或      http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V36/I2/296
Fig.1  研究区域站点分布
Fig.2  1961~2010 年北疆地区高温及其频数与强度变化趋势的空间分布(注:a.夏季趋势, b.冬季趋势, c.夏季频率, d.冬季频率, e.夏季强度, f.冬季强度。)
Fig.3  1961~2010年北疆极端高温频数的EOF分析(注:a.夏季EOF 1, b.夏季EOF 2, c.冬季EOF 1, d.冬季EOF 2。)
Fig.4  1961~2010年北疆极端高温强度的EOF分析(注:a.夏季EOF 1, b. 夏季EOF 2, c.冬季EOF 1, d.冬季EOF 2。)
Fig.5  1961~2010 年北疆地区低温、及其频数与强度变化趋势的空间分布(注:a.夏季趋势, b.冬季趋势, c.夏季频率, d.冬季频率,e.夏季强度, f.冬季强度。)
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