基于参与式调查与主成分分析的金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

内陆河流域绿洲变化驱动机制是旱区绿洲学研究的核心内容之一。利用1963~2010年的Keyhole存档相片、KATE-200卫星航片、Landsat遥感影像等多源数据,获取了金塔绿洲空间分布及面积变化信息。在此基础上,结合参与式调查和主成分分析方法定量分析绿洲变化的驱动机制。研究表明：近47 a来金塔绿洲总体呈现增长的趋势,绿洲规模不断扩大,至2010年绿洲面积高达539.47 km²。其主要原因是气候变化、人口增加、水资源的开发利用与科技进步、社会经济发展及政策等因子的相互交织作用。气候变化是背景因子,人文因子是绿洲变化的主成分因素,且在不同历史社会背景下,其主导人文因素也不同。

关键词: 绿洲变化, 参与式调查访谈, 主成分分析, 驱动力, 金塔绿洲

Abstract:

As a unique geographical landscape of arid area, oasis was the main space of human activity in arid area, and its change was the most direct reflection of environmental change. Recently, spatiotemporal change of oasis and its driving forces was one of the hot issues of oasis study. Jinta oasis, a typical artificial and agricultural oasis in the lower reaches of Beida River Basin in arid China, had experienced drastic change in the past 50 years, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal change and its driving forces. Based on Keyhole satellite photograph, KATE-200, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM images in 1963-2010, as well as field interviews and governmental socioeconomic statistics data, this study investigated and discussed the driving forces of Jinta oasis change during 1963-2010 by combining with participatory rural appraisal and principal component analysis. The results showed that oasis area and scale expanded gradually, and the area achieved its maximum with 539.47 km² in 2010. Oasis changes had been resulted from the interaction of natural environmental changes and human activities. Human driving factors include population, policy, economic development, the progress of agricultural science and technology, environmental awareness, while the natural environment change was been represented by climatic factors (such as rainfall, air temperature) and runoff. In our study, the first and second main components of driving forces were population growth, water resources development and utilization, technical renovation, economic development and policy, the thirds was annual temperature, suggesting that human driving force played a dominant role. In addition, the main human driving forces behind oasis changes were varied in different historical periods. In 1963-1980, the dominant driving force was population growth and policy, whereas the dominant driving forces in 1980-1990 were the changes in agricultural production ways (such as household contract responsibility system) and population growth. In the period of 1990-2000, all sorts of driving forces interacted and associated mutually. Since 2002, economic benefit and water utilization were the dominant factors.

Key words: oasis change, participatory rural appraisal, principal component analysis, driving mechanism, Jinta Oasis

中图分类号:

F301.21

谢余初, 张影, 钱大文, 巩杰, 颉耀文, 常根应. 基于参与式调查与主成分分析的金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(2): 312-320.

Yuchu Xie, Ying Zhang, Dawen Qian, Jie Gong, Yaowen Xie, Genying Chang. Driving Forces of Jinta Oasis Changes Based on Participatory Rural Appraisal and Principal Component Analysis[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(2): 312-320.

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调查内容	调查提纲
人口生计	①20世纪50年代以来,村社户数和人口变化情况（发生变化的年份、原因及对农业的影响等）;②移民迁入或迁出状况（人数、年份、地点以及从事职业、对耕地面积的影响等）;③耕地变化状况（面积、分布、垦荒情况、发生年份、原因、弃耕现象等）;④家畜家禽饲养（种类、数量、饲养方式、畜牧业在家庭总收入中所占比重的变化等）。
经济发展	①资产投资、产业结构、产值及家庭经济收入变化情况;②农产品产量与价格变化、家禽畜牧产品价格变化。
科技进步	①农作物类型和品种、种植结构及经营方式的变化情况;②灌溉水利（灌溉用水来源、灌溉方式、次数,水利设施建设状况）;③农业用水政策、灌溉用水分配状况、水费价格变化等;④农药、化肥、农膜、农机、农电等投入与使用情况。
政策方面	①三农政策（土地改革、农业学大寨、备战备荒、河西商品粮基地建设、家庭联产承包责任制、基本农田保护政策、扶贫与移民政策、免除农业税、合村并社、新农村建设、限制开荒打井等）;②生态环境政策（三北防护林政策、天然林保护工程、公益林保护、自然保护区、退耕还林还草政策、沙漠化治理等）;③分水政策（黑河分水方案、水权管理等）;④其他政策（如计划生育政策）。
观念意识	①当地居民受教育程度、就业方式;②环境意识、政策认知程度等。

主成分	特征值	贡献率（%）	累积贡献率（%）
1	11.84	74.01	74.01
2	1.99	12.48	86.49
3	1.07	6.70	93.20