城市规模分布的经济绩效——基于中国市域数据的实证研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2010年市域数据,定量分析市域范围的城市规模分布对经济绩效的影响,并探索最优城市规模分布的影响因素。结果表明,① 在控制了其它重要的生产要素后,单中心规模分布具有更高的劳动生产率;② 随着规模由小变大,具有最优经济绩效的城市规模分布形式存在单中心-多中心-单中心的转变;③ 没有发现经济发展水平影响最优城市规模分布的明确证据;④ 西部地区城市规模单中心分布更有助于提高经济绩效。

关键词: 城市规模分布, 城市空间结构, 单中心, 多中心, 经济绩效, 市域

Abstract:

In 2011, the proportion of China's urban population exceeded 50%. The focus of China's urbanization is shifting from improving the urbanization rate to optimizing spatial efficiency, and it is of significant importance to explore the optimal city size distribution in terms of economic performance. City size distribution is a kind of spatial structure that reflects individuals' location choice after weighing their own advantages and disadvantages, and this is bound to affect the performance of economy. However, there is no logical consistency answer on which one is more efficient, pursuing mono-centric spatial structure for higher agglomeration economy or hunting polycentric spatial structure for lower agglomeration diseconomy. Besides, research on the economic performance of city size distributions has long been neglected. Existing studies of urban size distribution are mainly concentrated in discovering the stylized facts and rules of city size distribution, validating whether the theory of city size distribution conforming to the facts, and explaining the mechanism on the formation of city size distribution and so on. Based on city-regions cross-sectional data in 2010, this article studies how different city size distribution influences economic performance, what kinds of city size distribution has a higher economic efficiency in the mono-centric or polycentric dimension, and whether the optimal economic performance of urban size distribution is affected by other factors. This conclusions show that: 1) the mono-centric city size distribution tends to be associated with higher labor productivity, but with further samples subdivision, the optimal city size distribution turns up a mono-poly-mono shift along with the rise of scale. 2) No evidence has been found to support that the level of economic development affects the optimal city size distribution. And 3) it is of great significance to shape the cities in China's western region into mono-centric form.

Key words: city size distribution, spatial structure, mono-centric, polycentric, economic performance, city-region

中图分类号:

F129.9

孙斌栋, 李琬. 城市规模分布的经济绩效——基于中国市域数据的实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(3): 328-334.

Bindong Sun, Wan Li. City Size Distribution and Economic Performance: Evidence from City-Regions in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(3): 328-334.

图/表 4

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	(1)	(2)	(3)
城市规模分布(RS_F)	0.2046***	0.0538*	0.0335
城市规模分布(RS_F)	(0.0468)	(0.0280)	(0.0285)
二三产业劳动力规模		0.0333	0.0170
二三产业劳动力规模		(0.0261)	(0.0276)
城市规模分布×规模			0.0461***
城市规模分布×规模			(0.0170)
劳均资本		0.3040***	0.3014***
劳均资本		(0.0333)	(0.0334)
劳均土地		0.1897***	0.1923***
劳均土地		(0.0431)	(0.0421)
受教育年限		0.0870***	0.0769***
受教育年限		(0.0256)	(0.0270)
政府支出比重		-2.1049***	-2.1840***
政府支出比重		(0.4187)	(0.4405)
劳均公路里程		9.5009***	8.7801***
劳均公路里程		(2.3734)	(2.3092)
二三产业比重		0.1144***	0.1177***
二三产业比重		(0.0234)	(0.0245)
常数	11.2679***	6.1323***	6.4874***
常数	(0.0479)	(0.5262)	(0.5742)
样本量	272	267	267
调整R²	0.1031	0.7450	0.7485
F	19.1270	92.7050	82.7307

	劳动力小于100万			劳动力大于100万
	(1)		(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
城市规模分布	0.0623^**	0.0920^**		-0.0304	-0.1122^***	-0.0872^*
城市规模分布	(0.0293)	(0.0436)		(0.0376)	(0.0407)	(0.0490)
规模	0.0237	0.0251		0.1724^***	0.0934^**	0.0737
规模	(0.0472)	(0.0473)		(0.0447)		(0.0469)	(0.0537)
规模×城市规模分布		0.0605			0.0905^***	0.0451
规模×城市规模分布		(0.0565)				(0.0296)	(0.0456)
劳均快速轨道交通里程						2.8276
劳均快速轨道交通里程							(3.7834)
是否是直辖市（虚拟变量）						0.1688
是否是直辖市（虚拟变量）							(0.1719)
其他控制变量	有	有	有	有	有
样本量	168	168	99	99	99
调整R²	0.7647	0.7645	0.7897	0.7999	0.7979
F	54.6438	51.6049	40.1105	38.4209	31.9134