中国交通CO2排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.04.002

地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 491-501.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.04.002

中国交通CO₂排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

杨文越¹, 李涛², 曹小曙^1,³()

1.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州 510275
2.广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,广东广州 510320
3.陕西师范大学交通地理与空间规划研究所,陕西西安 710119

收稿日期:2015-02-07 修回日期:2015-08-20 出版日期:2016-07-21 发布日期:2016-07-21
作者简介:
作者简介：杨文越(1988-),男,广东韶关人,博士研究生,研究方向为城市交通地理与土地利用。E-mail:yangwenyue900780@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41171139,41130747）中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（GK201303006）资助

The Evolution of Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors of CO₂ Emissions from Transport in China: A Panel Data Analysis of 30 Provinces in China from 2000 to 2012

Wenyue Yang¹, Tao Li², Xiaoshu Cao^1,³()

1.School of Geography Science and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China
2. School of Geography & Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320,Guangdong, China
3. Institute of Transport Geography and Spatial Planning, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119,Shannxi, China

Received:2015-02-07 Revised:2015-08-20 Online:2016-07-21 Published:2016-07-21
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China（41171139,41130747）The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(GK201303006 )

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过构建交通CO₂排放模型对2000~2012年中国30个省（市）的交通CO₂排放时空演变特征进行了分析。并采取“由大到小”逐步回归的建模方式,在传统的固定效应模型（面板数据模型）基础上引入时间固定效应,构建了双向固定效应模型对中国交通CO₂排放的社会经济、城市形态、交通发展等方面的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：2000~2012年期间,中国交通CO₂排放总量和人均交通CO₂排放量分别以9.29%和8.69%的年均增速增长,前者的区域差异呈先增后减趋势,后者的区域差异则首先呈周期性波动,而后一直保持减少趋势。人均GDP和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入对人均交通CO₂排放具有显著的正向效应,表明社会经济发展和居民收入水平提高是交通CO₂排放增长的主要驱动因素。城市人口密度对交通CO₂排放亦具有显著的正向效应,这意味着未来中国应加强对城市人口密度的规划控制,以避免因人口过度集聚而额外增加产生交通CO₂排放。公共交通发展水平对交通CO₂排放增长具有显著的负向效应,但小汽车拥有率对交通CO₂排放的影响并不显著。

关键词: 交通CO2排放, 时空特征, 面板数据, 双向固定效益模型, 中国

Abstract:

This article attempted to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution and regional differences of carbon emissions from transport in China over the period 2000-2012 based on the transport carbon-emission model. Moreover, a two-way fixed effect model was developed to study the factors in terms of socioeconomic, urban form and transport development that influenced transport carbon emissions in China through the regression method of "general to specific". The results indicated that China’s total and per capita CO₂ emissions from transport were growing at 9.29% and 8.69% a year respectively, appearing the different characteristics of stages. The regional differences of the total CO₂ emissions from transport first increased and then decreased, while the regional differences of the per capita CO₂ emissions from transport first had a cyclical fluctuation and then kept decreasing. Provinces with higher total CO₂ emissions from transport were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region which had a prosperous economy and a large population, while provinces with higher per capita CO₂ emissions from transport were predominantly concentrated in developed regions such as Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin as well as some western provinces with lower population density. In the aspect of socioeconomic influential factors, per capita GDP and per capita disposable income of urban households both had significant positive effect on per capita CO₂ emissions from transport, which indicated that the development of social economy and the increase in residents' income level were main drivers of transport CO₂ emissions growth. The urbanization level also had a positive effect, but it was not statistically significant. In addition, industrial structure was the least significant factor. In the aspect of urban form influential factors, urban population density also had a significant positive effect on transport CO₂ emissions, which was contrary to the conclusions of study abroad. Moreover, the city size also had a positive effect, but it was not statistically significant. In the aspect of transport development, the effect of urban road density was positive and was more significant than urban road ratio and highway density. The effect of public transport development was significantly negative. However, the effect of car ownership was not statistically significant. Finally, the effect of time was negative to transport CO₂ emissions, which reflected that the effect of some unobserved factors for controlling the growth of transport CO₂ emissions in China was gradually appearing.The better understanding of the relationship between socio-economy, urban form, transport development and transport CO₂ emissions will help China to curb transport CO₂ emissions growth and construct city space environment towards low-carbon and sustainable.

Key words: transport CO2 emissions, spatial-temporal characteristics, panel data, two-way fixed effect model, China

中图分类号:

K901

杨文越, 李涛, 曹小曙. 中国交通CO₂排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 491-501.

Wenyue Yang, Tao Li, Xiaoshu Cao. The Evolution of Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors of CO₂ Emissions from Transport in China: A Panel Data Analysis of 30 Provinces in China from 2000 to 2012[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(4): 491-501.

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燃料类型	热值（kJ/kg、 kJ/m³）	单位热值的CO₂ 排放（kg/TJ）	CO₂排放因子（kg/kg、kg/ m³）	燃料类型	热值（kJ/kg、 kJ/m³）	单位热值的CO₂ 排放（kg/TJ）	CO₂排放因子（kg/kg、kg/ m³）
原煤	20908	96690	2.022	煤油	43070	71900	3.097
洗精煤/其他洗煤	26344	93170	2.454	柴油	42652	74100	3.161
型煤	20700	97500	2.018	燃料油	41816	77400	3.237
焦炭	28435	107000	3.043	液化石油气	50179	63100	3.166
原油	41816	73300	3.065	其他石油制品	40200	73300	2.947
汽油	43070	69300	2.985	天然气	38931	56100	2.184

属性	变量	变量描述	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	观测样本个数
因变量	PTC	人均交通CO₂排放（kg）	417.50	338.55	62.42	2015	390
社会经济因素	PGDP	人均GDP（元）	17288.95	12475.34	2742.07	69639.91	390
	PIH	城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入（元）	12822.63	6471.67	4724.11	40188.30	390
	TIP	第三产业占GDP比重（%）	40.45	0.07	28.30	76.46	390
	UL	城市化水平（%）	35.29	0.16	14.16	89.76	390
城市形态因素	UPD	城市人口密度（人/km²）	839.17	677.10	101.76	3306	390
城市形态因素	ACS	建成区平均规模（km²）	137.73	274.99	15.95	1349.8	390
交通发展水平	URP	城市道路比例（%）	11.17	3.28	3.64	28.97	390
	URD	城市道路密度（km/ km²）	6.96	2.35	2.57	18.14	390
	HWD	公路密度（km/ km²）	0.61	0.43	0.03	2.44	390
	PPT	城市每万人拥有公共交通车辆数（标台）	9.83	3.88	3.00	26.4	390
	PPV	每万人均拥有私人汽车（辆）	275.60	292.48	13.14	1960.13	390

变量	单位根检验				变量	单位根检验
	LLC			ADF-Fisher		LLC		ADF-Fisher
	校正t统计量		p值	逆卡方值	p值	校正t统计量	p值	逆卡方值	p值
LnPTC	-5.30	0.0000	123.68	0.0000	LnACS	-13.69	0.0000	140.59	0.0000
LnPGDP	-4.68	0.0000	139.97	0.0000	LnURP	-13.45	0.0000	150.01	0.0000
LnPIH	-11.12	0.0000	149.57	0.0000	LnURD	-3.14	0.0008	199.70	0.0000
LnTIP	-5.82	0.0000	123.09	0.0000	LnHWD	-3.35	0.0004	97.03	0.0018
LnUL	-10.78	0.0000	118.39	0.0000	LnPPT	-19.25	0.0000	146.65	0.0000
LnUPD	-9.87	0.0000	227.08	0.0000	LnPPV	-15.31	0.0000	170.31	0.0000

变量	参数估计结果
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
lnPGDP	1.12^***	1.11^***	1.13^***	1.16^***	1.18^***
lnPIH	0.49^*	0.50^*	0.49^*	0.47^*	0.51^**
lnTIP	0.04	-	-	-	-
lnUL	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.22^*
lnUPD	0.23^***	0.23^***	0.23^***	0.23^***	0.22^***
lnACS	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07
lnURP	0.03	0.03	-	-	-
lnURD	0.15	0.15	0.17^*	0.17^*	0.17^*
lnHWD	0.03	0.03	0.03	-	-
lnPPT	-0.15^*	-0.15^***	-0.15^***	-0.14^**	-0.15^***
lnPPV	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	-
2001年	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
2002年	-0.19^***	-0.18^***	-0.18^***	-0.18^***	-0.18^***
2003年	-0.20^**	-0.19^**	-0.19^**	-0.19^**	-0.19^**
2004年	-0.30^***	-0.29^***	-0.29^***	-0.29^***	-0.29^***
2005年	-0.26^**	-0.25^**	-0.25^**	-0.25^**	-0.25^**
2006年	-0.38^**	-0.38^**	-0.38^**	-0.36^**	-0.36^**
2007年	-0.48^***	-0.47^***	-0.47^***	-0.46^***	-0.46^**
2008年	-0.57^***	-0.57^***	-0.57^***	-0.55^***	-0.55^***
2009年	-0.70^***	-0.69^***	-0.69^***	-0.68^***	-0.67^***
2010年	-0.82^***	-0.81^***	-0.82^***	-0.80^***	-0.80^***
2011年	-0.92^***	-0.91^***	-0.91^***	-0.90^***	-0.89^***
2012年	-1.03^***	-1.02^***	-1.02^***	-1.01^***	-1.01^***
常数项	-10.62^***	-10.58^***	-10.80^*	-10.87^***	-11.31^***
R-sq:within	0.883	0.882	0.882	0.882	0.882
corr(u_i,Xb)	-0.743	-0.737	-0.742	-0.743	-0.750
F值（回归方程显著性检验）	109.99^***	115.31^***	121.09^***	127.41^***	134.22^***
F值（个体效应显著性检验）	28.30^***	31.78^***	32.01^***	33.10^***	35.12^***
AIC	-287.844	-289.764	-291.585	-293.289	-294.542
BIC	-192.656	-198.543	-204.330	-210.000	-215.219

中国交通CO₂排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

The Evolution of Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors of CO₂ Emissions from Transport in China: A Panel Data Analysis of 30 Provinces in China from 2000 to 2012

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