地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 512-520.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.04.004

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中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展效率的时空分异测度

潘竟虎(), 胡艳兴, 刘晓, 张建辉   

  1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-20 修回日期:2015-10-07 出版日期:2016-07-21 发布日期:2016-07-21
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:潘竟虎(1974-),男,甘肃嘉峪关人,博士,副教授,主要从事空间经济分析、生态遥感研究。E-mail:panjh_nwnu@nwnu.edu.cn

Spatial-temporal Pattern of the Coordinated Development Efficiency of the ‘Four Modernizations’ of Prefecture Level Cities or Above in China

Jinghu Pan(), Yanxing Hu, Xiao Liu, Jianhui Zhang   

  1. College of Geographic and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu, China)
  • Received:2015-02-20 Revised:2015-10-07 Online:2016-07-21 Published:2016-07-21

摘要:

以中国343个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,运用数据包络分析和探索性空间数据分析,研究了2001年和2011年 “四化”协调发展及其效率的空间差异变化,借助地理加权回归模型揭示“四化”协调发展效率的影响因素及其空间差异。结果显示,中国地级单元2001年和2011年的“四化”协调发展及其效率均存在显著的空间分异,综合指数、耦合度和协调度空间差异呈现以西北-东南走向的“反胡焕庸线”为分界的态势。“四化”协调发展效率整体较低,效率值较高的地区集中在中部地区,达到“有效”状态的城市极少。10 a间平均效率值总体降低 ,高值区逐渐向东部沿海地区转移。城乡人均固定资产投资差异、人均GDP和人均社会消费品零售总额是影响“四化”协调发展效率的重要因素。

关键词: 四化协调发展, 效率, 影响因素, 地理加权回归, 中国

Abstract:

The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, information and agricultural modernization (so called ‘Sihua Tongbu’ in Chinese) is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China, and it also provides a significant perspective for identifying problems so as to improve the regional policies using scientific methods. The existing studies are instructive for the overall grasp of this issue at national and provincial levels. However, they failed to uncover the regional patterns and impact factors of the ‘four modernizations’ development at an appropriate scale from the geographical perspective, and the interactions between four modernizations development and regional policies have been neglected as well. This article evaluated the comprehensive development index, coupling development index and coordinated development index of the‘four modernizations’ of China’s 343 prefecture-level administrative units, and calculated their efficiency of the ‘four modernizations’ in 2001 and 2011. Then, this article establishes the evaluation index system of the coordination development efficiency of the ‘new four modernizations’ , which includes four input elements of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, per capita local fiscal budget, the total social investment in fixed assets and per capita local or foreign currency and one output element of the coordinated development index of the ‘four modernizations’ . Based on the data from 343 prefecture-level administrative units, the efficiencies of four modernizations and their changing trends during the period 2001-2011 were investigated using DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model. Spatial-temporal pattern of coordination development efficiency of the ‘new four modernizations’ of China’s prefecture-level regions was explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Finally, the main influencing factors of coordinated development efficiency of four modernizations of China’s prefecture-level regions were revealed with the aid of geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Results indicate that the comprehensive development index, coupling development index, coordinated development index and efficiency of four modernizations of China’s 343 prefecture-level administrative units have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the ‘four modernizations’ coordinated development efficiency is relatively low, and only few cities with small urban population and economic scale were in DEA efficiencies. The higher efficiency regions concentrated in the central China. The efficiency changing trends were decreasing in 2001-2011, with a transfer of high efficiency area from the inland area to the eastern coastal areas. The difference between urban and rural per capita investment in fixed assets boasts the greatest influence on the coordinated development efficiency of the ‘four modernizations’. Per capita GDP is the second largest influencing factor. Per capita total retail sales of consumer goods, per capita expenditure on education and per capita income ratio between urban and rural residents show obvious impacts on the coordinated development efficiency of the‘new four modernizations’.

Key words: the coordination development of the‘new four modernizations’, efficiency, influencing factor, GWR, China

中图分类号: 

  • F299