地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 705-714.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.05.008

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基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究

孙才志(), 覃雄合, 李博, 王泽宇   

  1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连 116029
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-15 修回日期:2015-07-20 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙才志(1970-),男,山东烟台人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水资源经济与海洋经济研究。E-mail: suncaizhi@lnnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题(12JJD790032)、国家自然科学基金项目(41201114、41301129)、辽宁省教育厅创新团队课题(WT2014005)资助

Assessment of Marine Economy Vulnerability of Coastal Cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area Based on WSBM Model

Caizhi Sun, Xionghe Qin, Bo Li, Zeyu Wang   

  1. Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, Chin suncaizhi@lnnu.edu.cna
  • Received:2015-03-15 Revised:2015-07-20 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    The MOE's Project of Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities (12JJD790032), National Nature Science Foundation of China (41201114,41301129), Innovation Team Project of Liaoning Provincial Department of Education (WT2014005)

摘要:

基于海洋经济脆弱性内涵,结合“压力-状态-响应”模型(PSR)和“暴露度-敏感性-应对能力”模型,从压力、敏感性、应对能力3个方面构建海洋经济脆弱性测度评价指标体系,采用考虑了松弛变量权重的数据包络分析方法(WSBM)对2000~2011年环渤海地区17个沿海城市海洋经济脆弱性进行测算,并利用核密度估计模型分析了海洋经济脆弱性的动态演变,结果基本显示了环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性的分布格局。其中微度脆弱地区为天津市、大连市、东营市、烟台市;轻度脆弱地区为秦皇岛市、丹东市、盘锦市、葫芦岛市、威海市、日照市;中度脆弱地区为青岛市、潍坊市、滨州市;高度脆弱地区为唐山市、沧州市、锦州市、营口市。同时对环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性空间分异规律进行研究,研究成果对降低环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性具有一定理论价值和现实意义。

关键词: 海洋经济脆弱性, WSBM模型, 核密度估计, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

The purpose of study of marine economy vulnerability is to explore means to reduce the vulnerability, which can realize sustainable development of the marine economy. In recent decades, the studies of vulnerability have made remarkable progress in various fields. How to quantify vulnerability has become a hot topic in academic circles. This article presents a new method for quantifying the marine economy vulnerability in Bohai Sea Ring Area. Data envelopment analysis (DEA), which combines multiple inputs and multiple outputs in examining relative efficiency and performance of decision making unit (DMU), has been widely used for the assessments in many domains. Based on understanding of the marine economy vulnerability, we establish assessment indicator system of the marine economy vulnerability from three aspects including pressure, sensitivity and adaptability by combining Pressure-State-Response model (P-S-R) with Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability model. This article measures the marine economy vulnerability of 17 coastal cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area from 2000 to 2011 by weighted slacks-based measure (WSBM) model. The kernel density estimation method is employed to analyze the dynamic evolution of the marine economy vulnerability in Bohai Sea Ring Area,and the results can basically reflect the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of the marine economy vulnerability during the study period. The analysis of temporal variation at three time points by kernel density estimation reveals that the marine economy vulnerability in Bohai Sea Ring Area reduced year by year. The spatial pattern for the marine economy vulnerability was divided into four groups: very low, low, moderate, and high. The cities with very low vulnerability are Tianjin, Dalian, Dongying, and Yantai; The cities with low vulnerability are Qinhuangdao, Dandong, Panjin, Huludao, Weihai, and Rizhao; The cities with moderate vulnerability are Qingdao, Weifang, and Binzhou; The cities with high vulnerability are Tangshan, Cangzhou, Jinzhou, and Yingkou. Finally, we study the law of spatial differences for the marine economy vulnerability in Bohai Sea Ring Area, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance for reducing the marine economy vulnerability in this area.

Key words: marine economy vulnerability, WSBM model, Kernel density estimation, Bohai Sea Ring Area

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9