地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 733-741.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.05.011

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基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据的城市脆弱性定量研究——以北京市为例

杨佩国1, 靳京2(), 赵东升3, 李静4   

  1. 1.民政部国家减灾中心, 北京 100124
    2.中国科学院中国现代化研究中心, 北京 100190
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京100101
    4.环境保护部卫星环境应用中心, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-01 修回日期:2015-12-02 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨佩国(1977-),男,山东费县人,副研究员,主要从事自然灾害风险评估、城市减灾研究。E-mail: 38966816@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41440011)资助;National Natural Science Foundation of China(41440011 )

An Urban Vulnerability Study Based on Historical Flood Data: A Case Study of Beijing

Peiguo Yang1, Jing Jin2(), Dongsheng Zhao3, Jing Li4   

  1. 1.National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Beijing 100124, China
    2.China Centre for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    4. Environment Satellite Center, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2015-09-01 Revised:2015-12-02 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20

摘要:

基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据构建脆弱性曲线,定量研究北京市在不同降雨量下的宏观脆弱性。分析显示,在现有的抗灾能力下,相同降雨量所导致的农作物受灾率值最高,死亡失踪率值最低;随着最大2 d降雨量增大,承灾体的损失率增加明显,当最大2 d降雨量重现周期达到百年一遇时,在现有的社会经济暴露状况下,受灾人口数将达到147.4万人,死亡失踪人数也将有可能达到50人左右,农作物受灾面积有可能达到7万hm2,倒塌和损坏房屋将可能达到60万间,直接经济损失可能超过400亿元。北京市的洪涝灾害风险管理力度还有待加强。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝, 脆弱性曲线, 北京市

Abstract:

Based on the historical loss data, the study builds vulnerability curves and carries out qualitative research on the general vulnerability of Beijing to rainstorms and floods under different rainfall scenarios. The results show that: 1) There is a high correlation between the maximum 2-day rainfall and the loss rates, the established vulnerability curves can express the relation and be used for loss estimation; 2) According to the P-III fitting curves, the once-in-5-year maximum 2-day rainfall in Beijing is 110.5 mm, and the figures for once-in-10-year, once-in-20-year, once-in-50-year and once-in-100-year occasions are 134.8 mm, 159.0 mm, 190.8 mm and 214.8 mm, respectively; 3) With the current ability to resist disasters, under the same rainfall scenario, the crops loss rate is the highest, followed by population affected rate, buildings damaged rate, direct economic loss rate and buildings collapse rate, death or missing rate is the lowest; 4) The loss rate rises dramatically with the increase of maximum 2-day rainfalls. With current social and economic exposure, when the maximum 2-day rainfall recurrence period reached once-in-5-year, population affected may be 6.2×104 and the number of death or missing may be 4 people, the area of crops affected may be 2×103 hm2, the number of buildings damaged or collapse may be 3.5×103, and direct economic loss may be 3×108. When the maximum 2-day rainfall recurrence period reached once-in-100-year, population affected may reach 1.474×106 and the number of death or missing may reach about 50 people, the area of crops affected may reach 7×104 hm2, the number of buildings damaged or collapse may reach 6×105, and direct economic loss may exceed 4×1010 yuan(RMB). So Beijing still needs to give high importance to flood problems and strengthen its flood risk management in this regard.

Key words: rainstorms and floods, vulnerability curve, Beijing

中图分类号: 

  • S422