中国航空运输业与旅游业发展水平关系测度

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近20 a来,中国航空运输业与旅游业均呈快速发展趋势,对两者关系的研究逐渐兴起。基于1985年以来中国航空旅客吞吐量和旅游人数的历史数据,采用面板VAR模型从全国和省域尺度定量分析了航空运输业与旅游业发展的关系。研究结果表明：中国航空运输业与旅游业的发展水平呈现出显著的时空相关性;在全国尺度上,两者发展呈现出长期均衡的关系,且航空运输业对旅游业发展的贡献率大于旅游业对航空运输业的贡献率;在省域尺度上,根据航空运输业与旅游业发展水平的相对关系,可将省份划分为高-高协调型、高-低磨合型、低-高磨合型、低-低协调型4种类型。

关键词: 航空运输业, 旅游业, 相互关系, 面板VAR

Abstract:

Since the civil aviation and tourism experienced a rapid development in China in the past two decades, the relationship between them has become a hot topic. Thispaper tries to explore the relationship between civil aviation and tourism at both national and provincial scalebased onthe data of airport passenger throughput and tourist arrivals since 1985 using PVAR method. Results indicate that: 1) China’s civil aviation and tourism show a significant positive relationship in both the temporal and spatial perspectives. Both of them have experienced 4 stages which are slow growth stage-slowly steady growth stage-fast steady growth stage and fast fluctuant growth stage. Spatially, airport passenger throughput and tourist arrivals show significant correlation, while the space correlation between airport passenger throughput and A-grade scenic spot show geographic differences. 2) At national scale, the civil aviation and tourism present a long-term equilibrium development. The growth of civil aviation and tourism show similar reflect when another is facing shock, which is reducing at the beginning and then increasing. The result of variance demonstrates that the development of civil aviation has larger impacts on tourism than impacts of tourism on civil aviation. 3) At provincial scale, the provinces are divided into 4 categories based on the relationship between civil aviation and tourism: a,high-high coordination areas, which are mainly located in the eastern. b, high-low rivaling areas, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other border region. c, low-high rivaling areas, mainly in the central region. d, low-low coordination areas, mainly located in the central and western regions.

Key words: civil aviation, tourism, relationship, PVAR

中图分类号:

王姣娥, 王涵, 焦敬娟. 中国航空运输业与旅游业发展水平关系测度[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(8): 1125-1133.

Jiaoe Wang, Han Wang, Jingjuan Jiao. The Relationship Between the Development Level of Civil Aviation and Tourism in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(8): 1125-1133.

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检验形式	含截距					含截距和趋势
检验方法	LLC			IPS		LLC		IPS
	统计量		P	统计量	P	统计量	P	统计量	P
A	5.86906	1.0000	11.3738	1.0000		-0.00907	0.4964	3.57402	0.9998
△A	-13.3115	0.0000	-10.0801	0.0000		-11.8964	0.0000	-7.77079	0.0000
T	7.20649	1.0000	13.0138	1.0000		-1.43703	0.0754	2.02581	0.9786
△T	-16.4068	0.0000	-11.8900	0.0000		-15.2441	0.0000	-10.9375	0.0000

期数	航空运输业（%）			旅游业（%）
期数	航空运输业		旅游业	航空运输业	旅游业
1	100	0		14.2	85.8
2	96	4		14.8	85.2
3	95.8	4.2		15.6	84.4
4	95.7	4.3		16.5	83.5
5	95.6	4.4		16.6	83.4
6	95.6	4.4		16.6	83.4
7	95.6	4.4		16.6	83.4
8	95.5	4.5		16.7	83.3
9	95.5	4.5		16.7	83.3
10	95.5	4.5		16.7	83.3

类型	特征	省份
高-高协调型	机场旅客吞吐量较高,旅游人数较高	四川、山东、江苏、浙江、辽宁
高-低磨合型	机场旅客吞吐量较高,旅游人数较低	北京、上海、广东、云南、福建、海南、新疆、陕西
低-高磨合型	机场旅客吞吐量较低,旅游人数较高	湖北、河南、安徽、河北、江西、贵州、山西、湖南、黑龙江
低-低协调型	机场旅客吞吐量较低,旅游人数较低	宁夏、青海、西藏、甘肃、内蒙古、吉林、天津