中国城市空间拓展与经济增长关系研究——以261个地级市为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.003

地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1141-1147.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.003

中国城市空间拓展与经济增长关系研究——以261个地级市为例

陈晓红¹(), 张文忠², 张海峰³()

1.哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150025
2.中科院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
3.美国路易斯维尔大学地理科学学院,美国路易斯维尔 40292

收稿日期:2016-05-09 修回日期:2016-06-29 出版日期:2016-08-20 发布日期:2016-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介：陈晓红（1978-）,女,山东日照人,副教授,主要从事区域经济与规划、区域协调发展研究。E-mail：chenxh440@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41101548）、国家自然科学基金重点项目（41230632）、哈尔滨师范大学科技发展预研项目（11XYG-01）、哈尔滨师范大学人文社会科学优秀青年学者支持项目（SYQ2014-06）、2016年度黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目（16JBL01）资助

The Relations of Urban Spatial Expansion and Economic Growth in China: A Case Study of 261 Prefecture-level Cities

Xiaohong Chen¹(), Wenzhong Zhang², Haifeng Zhang³()

1.College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, Heilongjiang, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3.Department of Geography & Geosciences, University of Louisville, Louisville 40292 , USA

Received:2016-05-09 Revised:2016-06-29 Online:2016-08-20 Published:2016-08-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41101548,41230632),Science and Technology Development of Advanced Research Project of Harbin Normal University(11XYG-01),Harbin Normal University Humanities and Social Science Youth Fund Projects(SYQ2014-06),Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (16JBL017)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,随着中国城市化进程不断加快,各地普遍出现了以低价出让农业用地,盲目投资房地产及城市基础设施,大规模兴建新城区为主要特征的城市蔓延现象。造成这种城市建成区低密度无序扩张的原因,除了不规范的城市用地转化机制外,很大程度上是源于对城市化与经济发展关系的不当认识。以全国261个地级市为例,基于1990~2010年城市社会经济发展数据,采用多元回归模型客观分析了中国城市土地蔓延与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,在控制住城市固定资产投资、外商投资（FDI）、房地产泡沫效应等因素后,城市现有建成区面积及其扩展幅度与其人均国民生产总值并没有显著相关关系。也就是说,单纯追求城市建成区规模扩张并不能直接促进城市经济发展。

关键词: 城市空间拓展, 经济增长, 关系, 中国

Abstract:

As the urbanization in China accelerates in recent years, there appears a phenomena called urban sprawl which has the following main features: selling agricultural land at a low price ,blindly investing in real estate and urban infrastructure and large-scale construction of the new cities .The cause of this city’s low-density sprawl lies in, to a large degree, the misconceptions of the relationship between urbanization and economic development in addition to the non-standard urban land conversion mechanism. Based on the data of 1990-2010 Urban Social and Economic Development, and taking 261 prefecture-level cities in China for example, this article objectively analyzes the relationship between urban sprawl and economic growth by adopting the multiple regression model. The research results show that : 1) There is no significant correlation between urban expansion and GNP after controlling the urban investment in fixed assets, foreign investment (FDI), the real estate bubble effect and other factors. In other words,the mere pursuit of urban built-up area scale expansion can not directly promote the development of urban economy.2) The investment in real estate accounts and the total urban population showed a significant negative correlation. 3) Demographic urbanization level, the total urban investment in fixed assets and GDP growth had significant causal effect on economic growth. Our results suggest that the simple pursuit of scale expansion of urban built-up area cannot directly promote the city's economic development in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to maintain harmonious development of the urban spatial expansion and economic development in China. Urbanization is a natural product and an important witness of economic development in China. Urbanization should not be dominated by man-made urban sprawl. In order to achieve the healthy and sustainable development of cities and regional economy in China, the results of this study also help correct the one-sided pursuit of urbanization and short-term effects of the transfer of land and real property.

Key words: urban spatial expansion, economic growth, relation, China

中图分类号:

F129.9

陈晓红, 张文忠, 张海峰. 中国城市空间拓展与经济增长关系研究——以261个地级市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(8): 1141-1147.

Xiaohong Chen, Wenzhong Zhang, Haifeng Zhang. The Relations of Urban Spatial Expansion and Economic Growth in China: A Case Study of 261 Prefecture-level Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(8): 1141-1147.

图/表 4

图1

表1

表2

表3

参考文献 26

[1]	陈明星, 唐志鹏, 白永平. 城市化与经济发展的关系模式——对钱纳里模型的参数重估[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(6): 739-749.
	[Chen Mingxing, Tang Zhipeng, Bai Yongping.Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development:The parameter revaluation of Chenery's Model. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(6): 739-749.]
[2]	李郇. 中国城市化滞后的经济因素——基于面板数据的国际比较[J]. 地理研究, 2005, 24(3): 421-431.
	[Li Huan.The effects of economic growth on Chinese urbanization: panel data approach. Geographical Research, 2005, 24(3): 421-431.]
[3]	陈明星, 陆大道, 查良松. 中国城市化与经济发展水平关系的国际比较[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(2): 464-474.
	[Chen Mingxing, Lu Dadao, Zha Liangsong.Urbanization and economic development in China: An international comparison based on quadrant map approach. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(2): 464-474.]
[4]	周一星. 关于中国城镇化速度的思考[J]. 城市规划, 2006, 12(30): 32-35.
	[Zhou Yixing.Thoughts on the speed of China's urbanization. City Planning Review, 2006, 12(30): 32-35.]
[5]	陈明星, 叶超, 周义. 城市化速度曲线及其政策启示——对诺瑟姆曲线的讨论与发展[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(8): 1499-1507.
	[Chen Mingxing, Ye Chao, Zhou Yi.Urbanization rate and its policy implications: Discussion and development of Northam's curve. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(8): 1499-1507.]
[6]	陈彦光, 罗静. 城市化水平与城市化速度的关系探讨——中国城市化速度和城市化水平饱和值的初步推断[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(6): 1063-1072.
	[Chen Yanguang, Luo Jing.Derivation of relations between urbanization level and velocity from logistic growth model. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(6): 1063-1072.]
[7]	Bloom D E, Canning D, Fink G.Urbanization and the wealth of nations[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5864): 772-775. doi: 10.1126/science.1153057 pmid: 18258907
[8]	Chen Mingxing, Zhang Hua, Liu Weidong, et al.The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades[J]. PLOS One, 2014, 9(8): 1-15. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0103799 pmid: 4123908
[9]	孙斌栋, 李琬. 城市规模分布的经济绩效——基于中国市域数据的实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(3): 328-334. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002
	[Sun Bindong, Li Wan.City size distribution and economic performance:Evidence from city-regions in China. Scientia Geographical Sinica, 2016, 36(3): 328-334.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002
[10]	张琳琳, 岳文泽, 范蓓蕾. 中国大城市蔓延的测度研究——以杭州市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(4): 394-400.
	[Zhang Linlin, Yue Wenze, Fan Beilei.Measuring urban sprawl in large Chinese cities:a case study of Hangzhou. Scientia Geographical Sinica, 2014, 34(4): 394-400.]
[11]	洪世键, 张京祥. 城市蔓延的界定及其测度问题探讨——以长江三角洲为例[J]. 城市规划, 2013, 37(7): 42-45, 80.
	[Hong Shijian, Zhang Jingxiang.Study on definition and measurement of urban sprawl: a case study on yangtze river delta region. City Planning Review, 2013, 37(7): 42-45, 80.]
[12]	王家庭,张俊韬.我国城市蔓延测度:基于35个大中城市面板数据的实证研究[J].经济学家, 2010,(10): 56-63.
	[Wang Jiating, Zhang Juntao.Measurement on the urban spreading in China: Empirical study based on the panel data of 35 large and middle cities. Economist, 2010(10): 56-63. ]
[13]	朱煜虹, 张衔春, 董晓莉. 城市蔓延对我国地方财政支出影响的实证分析[J]. 城市发展研究, 2013, 20(3): 67-72. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2013.03.015
	[Zhu Yuhong, Zhang Xianchun, Dong Xiaoli.An empirical analysis of the impact of urban sprawl on China local public expenditure. Urban Studies, 2013, 20(3): 67-72.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2013.03.015
[14]	姚士谋, 陆大道, 王聪, 等. 中国城镇化需要综合性的科学思维——探索适应中国国情的城镇化方式[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(11): 1947-1955.
	[Yao Shimou, Lu Dadao, Wang Cong et al. Urbanization in China needs comprehensive scientific thinking: Exploration of the urbanization mode adapted to the special situation of China. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(11): 1947-1955.]
[15]	陆大道. 我国的城镇化进程与空间扩展[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2007, 107(4): 47-52. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2007.04.006
	[Lu Dadao.Urbanization process and spatial sprawl in China. Urban Planning Forum, 2007, 107(4): 47-52.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2007.04.006
[16]	He Canfei, Huang Zhiji, Wang Rui.Land use change and economic growth in urban China:A structural equation analysis[J]. Urban Studies, 2013, 51(13): 2880-2898.
[17]	王丽萍, 周寅康, 薛俊菲. 江苏省城市用地扩张及驱动机制研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2005, 19(6): 26-29. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2005.06.006
	[Wang Liping, Zhou Yinkang, Xue Junfei.Study on urban land expansion and its driving mechanism in Jiangsu province. China Land Science, 2005, 19(6): 26-29.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2005.06.006
[18]	姜海, 夏燕榕, 曲福田. 建设用地扩展对经济增长的贡献及其区域差异研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(8): 4-8. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2009.08.001
	[Jiang Hai, Xia Yanrong, Qu Futian.Study on contribution of construction land expansion to economic growth and its regional difference. China Land Science, 2009, 23(8): 4-8.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2009.08.001
[19]	张虹鸥, 叶玉瑶, 杨丽娟, 等. 广东30年建设用地增长对经济发展的贡献[J]. 经济地理, 2008, 28(6): 904-908.
	[Zhang Hongou, Ye Yuyao,Yang Lijuan et al. Construction land expansion and its contribution to economic growth since reform and opening up in Guangdong province. Economic Geography, 2008, 28(6): 904-908.]
[20]	Bai Xuemei, Chen Jing, Shi Peijun.Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2012, 46(1): 132-139. doi: 10.1021/es202329f
[21]	李效顺, 曲福田, 陈友偲, 等. 经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(5): 713-722.
	[Li Xiaoshun, Qu Futian, Chen Youcai et al. Hypothesis and validation on the Logistic curve of economic development and urban sprawl-based on the investigation of the typical cities in East China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(5): 713-722.]
[22]	姜海, 曲福田. 不同发展阶段建设用地扩展对经济增长的贡献与响应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2009, 19(1): 70-75. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2009.01.013
	[Jiang Hai, Qu Futian.Contribution and response of constructed land expansion to economic growth at different development stages:a case study for Jiangsu. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2009, 19(1): 70-75.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2009.01.013
[23]	George C S.Lin.reproducing spaces of Chinese urbanisation:new city-based and land-centred urban transformation[J]. Urban Studies, 2007, 44(9): 1827-1855. doi: 10.1080/00420980701426673
[24]	Wang Lei, Li Congcong, Ying Qing, et al.China's urban expansion from 1990 to 2010 determined with satellite remote sensing[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(22): 2802-2812. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5235-7
[25]	国家统计局.中国城市统计年鉴(1991-2011)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of China city statistical yearbook(1991-2011).Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1991-2011. ]
[26]	吴喜之. SPSS统计分析(第5版).北京:电子工业出版社,2015.
	[Wu Xizhi.SPSS statistical analysis (Fifth edition). Beijing: Electronic Industry Press,2015.]

自变量	平均值	双变量相关系数
城市建成区面积蔓延总量（1990~2010年）	264.442	0.208^***
2010年人口城市化水平	35.3	0.375^***
城市固定资产投资总额（1990~2010年）	46590283.53	0.457^***
城市累计外商投资总额（1990~2010年）	550735.56	0.435^***
城市房地产投资总额（1990~2010年）	9213992.28	0.342^***
城市2010年总人口	142.310	0.218^***
人口密度	1058.776	0.098
人均GDP增长幅度	4.778	0.185^**
1990年城市建成区面积	31.636	0.328^***

变量	Y	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉
Y	1.000	0.208	0.375	0.457	0.342	0.435	0.218	0.098	0.185	0.328
X₁	0.208	1.000	0.174	0.257	0.172	0.327	0.099	0.004	-0.037	-0.076
X₂	0.375	0.174	1.000	0.333	0.374	0.386	0.425	-0.071	-0.022	0.384
X₃	0.457	0.257	0.333	1.000	0.870	0.879	0.848	0.276	-0.100	0.768
X₄	0.342	0.172	0.374	0.870	1.000	0.803	0.791	0.165	-0.099	0.822
X₅	0.435	0.327	0.386	0.879	0.803	1.000	0.689	0.138	-0.118	0.619
X₆	0.218	0.099	0.425	0.848	0.791	0.689	1.000	0.170	-0.137	0.745
X₇	0.098	0.004	-0.071	0.276	0.165	0.138	0.170	1.000	-0.150	0.229
X₈	0.185	-0.037	-0.022	-0.100	-0.099	-0.118	-0.137	-0.150	1.000	-0.082
X₉	0.328	-0.076	0.384	0.768	0.822	0.619	0.745	0.229	-0.082	1.000

自变量	B	Standard Error	t	VIF
常量	17126.173	3315.618	5.165^***
城市建成区面积蔓延总量(1990~2010年)	-2.779	5.984	-0.464	1.479
2010年人口城市化水平	41627.523	5736.946	7.256^***	1.345
城市固定资产投资总额（1990~2010年）	0.001	0.000056	9.574^***	6.818
城市房地产投资总额（1990~2010年）	-0.000287	0.000133	-2.147^*	5.557
城市2010年总人口	-114.475	14.463	-7.915^***	4.330
人均GDP增长幅度（1995~2010年）	1655.012	409.388	4.043^***	1.024
1990年城市建成区面积	36.429	50.684	0.719	4.232
调整的判定系数R²	0.459^***

中国城市空间拓展与经济增长关系研究——以261个地级市为例

The Relations of Urban Spatial Expansion and Economic Growth in China: A Case Study of 261 Prefecture-level Cities

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 4

参考文献 26

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	张子昂, 保继刚. 多重距离对中国入境与出境旅游流的影响:基于组态的视角[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(1): 13-21.
[2]	陆天华, 于涛. 基于社会网络分析的旅游地乡村社会空间重构研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1522-1531.
[3]	刘彦随. 现代人地关系与人地系统科学[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1221-1234.
[4]	李博, 田闯, 金翠, 史钊源. 环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量空间溢出效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1266-1275.
[5]	刘云刚, 刘玄宇, 张争胜. 渔民视角下中国南海的领域构建[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(7): 1062-1071.
[6]	夏函, 张万顺, 彭虹, 李琳, 黄攀攀, 夏晶晶. 基于主体功能区规划的中国城市化地区生态功能评估[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(6): 882-889.
[7]	罗小龙, 曹姝君, 顾宗倪. 回流城镇化：中部地区城镇化开启新路径[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 685-690.
[8]	薛冰, 肖骁, 李京忠, 谢潇. 基于兴趣点（POI）大数据的东北城市空间结构分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 691-700.
[9]	吴媛媛, 宋玉祥. 中国人口老龄化空间格局演变及其驱动因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 768-775.
[10]	王成, 龙卓奇. 乡村生产空间系统演化的逻辑认知及数理表达[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(4): 535-543.
[11]	杨忍, 陈燕纯, 张菁, 徐茜. 20世纪90年代以来西方乡村地理研究的主要理论演变与启示[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(4): 544-555.
[12]	张新林, 仇方道, 谭俊涛, 王长建. 中国工业生态效率时空分异特征及其影响因素解析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 335-343.
[13]	姜洪强, 梅林, 杨立青. 中国淘宝店铺服务质量空间分异及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 428-436.
[14]	姜璐, 邢冉, 陈兴鹏, 薛冰. 青藏高原农区农户的家庭能源消费研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 447-454.
[15]	谭俊涛, 赵宏波, 刘文新, 张平宇, 仇方道. 中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 173-181.