地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1172-1179.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.007

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中国海洋渔业资源可持续利用的动态评价与空间分异

孙康1(), 周晓静1, 苏子晓2(), 张华2   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连116029
    2.辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连116029
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-29 修回日期:2015-10-23 出版日期:2016-08-20 发布日期:2016-08-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙康(1963-),女,辽宁本溪人,教授,博士,研究方向为产业经济学与生态保护。E-mail: sunkangdl@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    美国国家地理空气与水保护基金项目(GEFC19-14)、教育部省部共建人文社会科学重点研究基地项目 (13JJD790042)

Dynamic Assessment and Spatial Differentiation of Sustainable Utilization of Marine Fishery Resources in China

Kang Sun1(), Xiaojing Zhou1, Zixiao Su2(), Hua Zhang2   

  1. 1.Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2.College of Urban and Environment,Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2015-06-29 Revised:2015-10-23 Online:2016-08-20 Published:2016-08-20
  • Supported by:
    National Geographic Foundation of USA (GEFC19-14), Key Research Institute in University of China Education Ministry Project(13JJD790042)

摘要:

运用基于多智能体遗传算法的投影寻踪模型和核密度估计模型,对2003~2012年中国沿海11个省市(不含港澳台)海洋渔业资源可持续利用水平的时空格局演化进行测度。研究结果表明:从投影方向上看,捕捞技术、捕捞强度和渔业产业结构等,逐渐上升为影响海洋渔业资源可持续利用水平的重要因子;从时空格局上看,上海的海洋渔业资源可持续利用属于高水平区板块,天津、河北、江苏、浙江和广西属于中等水平区板块,辽宁、山东、福建、广东和海南属于低水平区板块;从总体上看,海洋渔业资源可持续利用呈现不可持续性,具体表现为时间演化可持续,空间演化不可持续,时空演化呈现出不可持续的两极分化趋势。未来高水平区板块应保持原来的发展模式,中等水平区板块的可持续利用路径选择是保中争高,低等水平区板块的可持续利用路径选择是追中攀高。

关键词: 海洋渔业资源, 多智能体遗传算法, 投影寻踪

Abstract:

As an important part of ocean resources, marine fishery resources provide essential protein, economic benefits and social welfare for human beings. Marine fishery resources are the foundation for the sustainable development of marine fishery, which is an important root for the development of marine economy. The recession of marine fishery resources is grim, along with the development of marine fishing technology, the increase of fishing intensity, as well as deepening extent of marine pollution. Mastering the sustainable utilization situation of marine fishery resources will optimize the management of marine fishery resources, prompt marine fishery developing towards the direction of sustainable. This article, takes the 11 coastal provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) of China as the research subject, builds an index system which includes three subsystems: resource environment, economy and society, and estimates the sustainable utilization level of marine fishery resources from 2003 to 2012 by means of the Projection Pursuit model based on Multi-agent Genetic Algorithm and the Kernel Density Estimation model. Then the article analyzes the temporal and spatial differences based on the results, obtains the following conclusions: From the perspective of optimal projection direction, fishing technology, fishing intensity and the structure of fishery industry gradually become the important factors for the sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources; From the view of spatial and temporal pattern, the sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources of Shanghai belongs to the high level zone plate, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangxi belong to the medium level zone plate, Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan belong to the low level of zone plate; In general, the sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources is not sustainable, specific performances: the sustainable time evolution, the unsustainable spatial evolution, and the unsustainable polarization trends. In the future, the high level zone plate should keep the original development model, the medium level zone plate should keep the level and strive for the high level, and the low level zone plate selection should chase the medium level and climb to the high level.

Key words: marine fishery resources, Multi-agent Genetic Algorithm, projection pursuit

中图分类号: 

  • F326.4