国有企业创新发展与东北三省经济增长：基于VEC模型的分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在构建国有企业创新发展对地区经济增长影响的理论模型基础上,设计国有企业创新发展与经济增长评价指标体系,基于协整和VEC模型,对东北三省国有企业对经济数量增长和经济质量增长的作用进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：东北三省国有企业创新发展与地区经济增长数量和质量之间的关系存在着非同步性,而且这种关系特点也与全国地区的实证结果存在显著的差异性。

关键词: 国有企业, 创新发展, 经济增长数量, 经济增长质量

Abstract:

The state-owned enterprise has been playing an irreplaceable role in the regional industrial technological progress, structural transformation and economic growth. In the construction of state-owned enterprise innovation and development of regional economic growth effect theoretical model, through the construction of the innovation and development of state-owned enterprises and economic growth evaluation index system, based on Cointegration and VEC model, this article analyzes on the number of economic growth and the quality of the economy growth of state-owned enterprises in three provinces of the Northeast China. The empirical results indicate that there is a non synchronous relation between quality and quantity of state-owned enterprise innovation and development and regional economic growth in the three provinces of Northeast China and it is significantly different to their relationship in the whole China. From the view of the impact of innovation development on the quantity and quality of economic growth in state-owned enterprises, in the short term, the level of innovation promotes the economic growth quantity and quality of the three provinces in Northeast China, but in the long run, the growth in the quantity of the economy is based on the decline of the quality of the economy. In the three provinces of Northeast China, the impact of the level of innovation shows the difference. Whether in the whole country or in the provinces in Northeast China or not, the quantity and the quality of economic growth mutually promote each other. In the three provinces of Northeast China, the quantity of economic growth has more influence on the quality of economic growth. In terms of the relationship between quantity and quality of economic growth, firstly, the level of innovation development promotes economic growth by capital investment, and the quantity of growth is bound to bring about the improvement of economic quality. To be further, economic quality growth will bring a breakthrough in the quantity of economic growth. Therefore, the future economic growth should practice the social system, natural system and economic system to achieve a harmonious and sustainable economic development model.

Key words: state-owned enterprise, innovation development, economic growth quantity, economic growth quality

中图分类号:

F062.4

王伟光, 侯军利, 白雪飞. 国有企业创新发展与东北三省经济增长：基于VEC模型的分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(9): 1293-1300.

Weiguang Wang, Junli Hou, Xuefei Bai. Innovation and Development of State-owned Enterprises and Economic Growth in Northeast China Based on VEC Model[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(9): 1293-1300.

图/表 4

图1

表1

表2

表3

东北三省创新发展与经济增长VEC模型比较"

Error Correction	东北				全国				辽宁				吉林				黑龙江
Error Correction	Δlnx		Δlny		Δlnz		Δlnx		Δlny	Δlnz	Δlnx	Δlny	Δlnz	Δlnx	Δlny	Δlnz	Δlnx	Δlny	Δlnz
CointEq1	-0.081	-0.529	-0.134		-0.193	-0.038	-0.999		-0.565	-0.829	-0.312		-2.190	-0.950	-9.365		-1.601	-1.330	-1.256
CointEq1	(2.948）	(-1.963）	(-2.173）		(-0.612)	(-0.090)	(-0.708)		(-4.404)	(-5.180)	(-0.671)		(-9.580)	(-1.346)	(-0.637)		(-3.052)	(-1.335)	(-0.995)
Δlnx（t-1）	-0.746	6.721	-0.725		0.550	0.569	0.017		-0.677	-1.603	-1.806		-0.309	1.024	-7.134		0.285	-0.398	-0.432
Δlnx（t-1）	(-4.159）	(1.834）	(-1.903）		(-2.213)		(-1.725)		(-0.015)	(-2.326)			(-4.413)	(-1.710)	(-2.770)			(-2.972)	(-0.994)	(-0.742)	(-0.545)	(-0.468)
Δlnx（t-2）	0.602	-8.233	1.015		-0.269	0.703	-1.568		-0.670	-1.070	0.204		-1.022	0.883	4.072		-0.246	-0.003	-1.060
Δlnx（t-2）	(2.183)	(-1.902)	(2.139)		(-0.926)		(-1.823)		(-1.206)	(-3.358)			(-4.300)	(-0.282)	(-6.464)			(-1.809)	(-0.401)	(-1.038)	(-0.006)	(-1.857)
Δlny(t-1)	0.012	0.723	0.162		0.403	-0.108	1.999		0.603	2.342	0.324		1.926	-0.017	-9.224		-1.006	1.307	-1.048
Δlny(t-1)	(0.672）	(1.820）	(0.597）		(-1.847)		(-0.375)		(-2.048)	(-1.619)			(-5.037)	(-0.239)	(-9.491)			(-0.027)	(-0.707)	(-1.789)	(-1.224)	(-0.774)
Δlny(t-2)	0.004	0.322	0.056		0.025	0.165	0.883		0.646	-0.083	-2.799		1.807	-0.262	-1.457		-0.740	0.393	1.158
Δlny(t-2)	(0.378)	(0.670)	(1.793)	(-0.327)		(-1.651)	(-2.617)	(-2.468)		(-0.253)	(-2.946)	(-6.411)		(-0.301)	(-0.080)	(-1.703)		(-0.477)	(-1.108)
Δlnz(t-1)	-1.325	2.106	1.984	-0.003	-0.064	-0.006	-0.010	-0.261	0.442	-0.003	0.010	0.339	0.176	-0.224	0.474
Δlnz(t-1)	(-5.350)	(2.235)	(2.344)	(-0.034)		(-0.551)	(-0.015)	(-0.087)		(-1.919)	(-1.117)	(-0.842)		(-0.893)	(-1.471)	(-1.352)		(-0.909)	(-1.516)
Δlnz(t-2)	-1.982	12.326	-0.504	0.082	-0.045	0.290	-0.013	0.475	0.053	0.001	0.013	0.307	0.169	-0.070	0.411
Δlnz(t-2)	(-4.978)	(1.973)	(-0.725)	(-1.457)		(-0.600)	(-1.156)	(-0.114)		(-3.352)	(-0.128)	(-0.342)		(-1.184)	(-1.322)	(-1.292)		(-0.284)	(-1.305)
C	0.004	0.087	-0.125	0.193	-0.038	-0.999	0.100	0.095	-0.033	0.151	-0.058	-0.367	0.077	-0.007	0.035
C	(0.262）	(0.256）	(-0.170）	(-0.612		(-0.090）	(-0.708)	(-5.990)		(-4.543)	(-0.542)	(-8.027)		(-0.994)	(-0.303)	(-2.783)		(-0.135)	(-0.528)

表3

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标选择依据	变量
企业创新水平（x）	创新投入水平	研发经费占工业增加值比重	文献[17]	x11
	创新投入水平	研发人员占从业人员比重	文献[18]	x12
	创新产出水平	新产品销售收入占主营业务收入比重	文献[19]	x21
		新产品产值占工业总产值比重	文献 [20]	x22
		申请专利授权量	文献 [21]	x23
	创新动力水平	总资产收益率	文献 [22]	x41
	创新动力水平	技术获取和技术改造费用	文献 [22]	x42
	创新环境水平	地方财政科技支出占财政支出比重	文献 [23]	x51
	创新环境水平	高新技术企业减免税	文献 [23]	x52

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标选择依据	变量
经济增长数量水平（y）	生产总值指数	国内生产总值指数	文献[7]	y11
经济增长质量水平（z）	要素结构优化	每10万人口中高等学校在校生数	文献[24]	z11
	需求结构合理	最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长贡献率		z21
	产业结构升级	第三产业对GDP的贡献率		z31
	社会公平实现	基尼系数		z41
	资源环境协调	环境污染治理投资总额占GDP比重		z51