关键词: 东北三省, 对外直接投资, 时空格局, 影响因素, 发展战略

Abstract:

China has entered the era of rapid outward direct investment (ODI) expansion. Recently, “the Belt and Road” strategy and the Northeast Asia Economic Integration have provided boarder opportunities for outward direct investment of Northeast China. Promoting ODI is not only a necessary stage for Northeast China to build all-round opening up economy, but also a developing chance for revitalization of Northeast China. With the provincial ODI data by captical and insititutions from 2003 to 2014, this article firstly analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of Northeast Chinese ODI. Then we used the geographically weighted regression model to detect the crucial factors that influence the development of Northeast Chinese ODI as well as its changing trend. Based on previous analysis, several suggestions were proposed to facilitate Northeast Chinese ODI. The results are as follows: 1) Northeast Chinese embraced a rapid growth after the financial crisis in 2008, but faced with downward pressure recently. The divergence of provincial ODI enlarged quickly, especially after 2008 when ODI of Liaoning province promptly surpassed ODI of Heilongjiang province. 2) Firms in Northeast China tend to invest directly near their home, thus the largest host country of Northeast Chinese ODI is Russia. Korea Peninsula and Japan are also on the list of the most attractive destinations the most attractive destinations of Northeast Chinese ODI. 3) Resource-seeking ODI is typical in Northeast China. More than 40% Northeast Chinese firms invested abroad in forestry, farming and mining industries. And most Northeast Chinese ODI aims at market and trade service. 4) GDP, export and the level of economy nationalization had positive influence with Northeast Chinese ODI from 2003 to 2013. GDP and export had relatively less impact on ODI in Northeast China than in other regions, while the level of economy nationalization played more and more important role in the expansion of Northeast Chinese ODI. In contrast, the impact of technology on ODI was not so significant in Northeast China. The gap of supply and demand of resource turned to be the most critical factor of the development of Northeast Chinese ODI from 2003 to 2013. Financial environment was supportive for firms in Northeast China to invest directly abroad in 2003, but became backward or even adverse in 2013. In the end, based on the results, we proposed that firms in Northeast provinces should enhance cooperation when investing abroad, and take a spatially differentiated investing strategy to avoid vicious competition. Heilongjiang province may aim at the market in Russia and Mongolia, while Jilin province may focus on investing in Korea and Japan. Liaoning province should strengthen ODI in North America and Europe, as well as critical coutries along the Maritime Silk Road such as Singapore, India and Indonesia. Northest China should exploit the advantages of SOEs to promote private ODI. Local governments of Northest China should further implement effective financial policies to encourage technology-seeking ODI and promote reverse technology spillover.

Key words: Northeast China, outward direct investment, spatio-temporal pattern, influencing factors, development strategy