关键词: 粮食生产, 种植结构, 优化布局, 东北西部

Abstract:

Using grain production statistical data at county level from 2003 to 2013, this article analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern and its main driving factor of grain production in the west of Northeast China. Based on K-means cluster analysis, grain production contribution rate and PSR conceptual framework model is established. According to the given target of reducing maize sown area in the planned "sickle-shape" area of China, theoretic target of specific reducing maize sown area is calculated at county level in the west of Northeast China. This can provide a scientific reference for the optimum layout of grain production and change of grain structure. The results indicate that grain sown area and grain production has presented a rising trend in the west of Northeast China since 2003. More specifically, maize and rice have an advantage in grain sown area and production quantities, while the proportion of soybean decreases. Spatial pattern of grain production in the west of Northeast China had changed apparently. Most of this region has been replaced by the maize-based type due to an expansion of maize planting. The grain sown area, rather than the grain yield per hectare and inner-grain structure, is the main influential factor from the result of grain production contribution rate during 2003 to 2013. Evaluation composite index score of cultivated land ecological security in the west of Northeast China were all under 0.6 and all these composite index scores were in the range of the threshold interval between insecurity type and critical-insecurity type. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the insecurity type and relative-insecurity type were dominant, of which the percentage was 97.01%, and these two type region were concentrated-distribution. Therefore, measures must be taken urgently to adjust the grain structure for improving land ecological security in the west of Northeast China. Given the target of reducing maize sown area in the "sickle-shape" area and the theoretic result of PSR framework model, the theoretically calculated planning target of reducing maize sown area in the west of Northeast China is totally 1.45×106 hm² (21.78×106 mu). In more detail, the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 1.13×106 hm² (16.98×106 mu) in the agro-pasture transitional zone and the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 0.32×106 hm² (4.80×106 mu) in the north cold region. On the basis of theoretic calculation, the regions of reducing maize sown area are mainly distributed in some counties of Chifeng City, Tongliao City, Xingan League, in the west of Jilin Province, in the west of Liaoning Province and some maize-based type region. According to previous analysis and results, reducing land should be conducted based on local ecology, economy and society conditions in the process of reducing maize sown area at county level. Simultaneously, land ecological security, the peasant livelihood substitute and benefit compensation should be taken fully into account to reduce maize sown area scientifically, rationally and sequentially.

Key words: grain production, planting structure, optimum layout, west of Northeast China