渐进制度变迁模式下中国城市转型测度的空间分异

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国286个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,基于2003~2013年的劳动力、企业等制度指标,采用空间插值等方法,探讨了中国城市制度转型水平及其效应机制。研究表明：① 空间上,制度转型结果及其效应总体上在2003~2013年都表现为从东部沿海向内陆地区的梯度衰减模式。时间上,制度转型及其引发的效应整体上表现为逐步强化,其中,制度转型效应表现为由2003年的“零星分布”向2008年“线状蔓延”进而向2013年“面状拓展”的空间演化特征。② 以城市群为核心的相关区域,其制度转型结果与效应大致呈现为圈层结构模式。③ 中西部地区（除成渝城市群外）的制度转型结果及其效应高值中心大都为单个城市。④ 制度转型对城市转型效应影响显著,且随着时间的推移明显增强。

关键词: 制度转型测度, 转型效应, 空间格局, IDW, 地级市

Abstract:

Since the implementation of China’s reform and opening-up policy, a hybrid institutional model has gradually evolved and been further refined to drive the country’s modernization and rejuvenation. At the same time, with the development of the model of gradual institutional changes, the city, along with contradictions among urban, resources, environment and economic development, has forced us to deepen institutional reform and transformation. And in the process of the rapid change and transformation of cities, the institution plays a quite important role in the development of urban transition, which often includes the indicators of labor, enterprise, foreign investment, etc. Based on these indicators, we build an index system which includes four dimensions, and undertake research on the results and effects of institution transformation. By the means of spatial interpolation, regression analysis and synthesis of spatial data and the date from 2003 to 2013, we conducted a comprehensive measure for the level of Chinese urban transformation under the influence of a gradual institution in the 286 prefectures of China. The results showed that: 1) From 2003 to 2013, the results and effects of institution transformation all decrease from the east coast to the inland areas in the space. In terms of time, the effects vary from scattered in 2003 to linear spread in 2008, and there is a tendency to become planar extension in 2013. 2) With urban agglomeration becoming the new regional unit participating in international competition and the division of labor, the institutional changes of its surrounding areas are typical representative. The institutional results and effects of its surrounding areas are significant and meet the Concentric Zone Theory, which present the law of diminishing circle from the center to the periphery. 3) The high centers are mostly single cities, especially the capital cities in the central and western regions, except Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration. And part of them have a relationship with large-scale development of natural resources. 4) The effects are largely correlated with the result of institution change and the correlation is becoming more and more significant with the passage of time.

Key words: measurement of institutional transition, transition effect, spatial distribution pattern, Inverse Distance Weighted, regions at the prefectural level

中图分类号:

F127

杨永春, 宋美娜, 史坤博, 金淑婷, 王梅梅, 张伟芳. 渐进制度变迁模式下中国城市转型测度的空间分异[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1466-1473.

Yang Yongchun, Song Meina, Shi Kunbo, Jin Shuting, Wang Meimei, Zhang Weifang. The Spatial Differentiation of Urban Transition in China with the Model of Gradual Institutional Changes[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(10): 1466-1473.

图/表 8

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表1

制度转型的指标因子与效应的回归分析"

自变量	2003年			2008年			2013年
自变量	偏回归系数		$t$ 值		偏回归系数	$t$ 值	偏回归系数	$t$ 值
常数	0.110^***	8.910		0.148^***	10.379		0.179^***	15.206
企业转制指数	-0.059	-0.537		0.323^***	3.828		0.326^***	7.341
住房转制指数	0.561^***	3.809		0.604^***	8.176		0.307^***	7.570
开放指数	0.113^***	3.843		0.059	1.366		0.131^**	3.084
劳动力转制指数	-0.005	-0.215		-0.045^*	-1.696		0.038^**	1.933
样本数量	286		286			286
$R 2$	0.316		0.275			0.437
调整 $R 2$	0.306		0.265			0.429

表1

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