ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明：① 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;② 降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;③ 降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小;④ 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。

关键词: 降雨侵蚀力, 厄尔尼洛, 降水量, 南方涛动, MEI

Abstract:

Soil erosion is one of the world’s three major environmental problems and is the primary cause of land degradation. Its origin is related to a series of natural factors including rainfall, topography, soil and vegetation properties, and inharmonious human activities that aggravate soil erosion. The rainfall is one of the main powers that lead to soil erosion. Rainfall erosivity is the tendency of rainfall to erode the soil, long time sequence rainfall erosivity is influenced by large scale circulation situation. Rainfall erosivity is highly dependent on rainfall, which is closely related to the ENSO (El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation) indices. Pearson’s correlation coefficient can be used to evaluate the validity of the relationship between the ENSO indices and annual rainfall erosivity. This article investigated the influence on rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan City of the El Ni?o SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) anomaly, the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and the MEI (Multivariate El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Index) as representations of ENSO phenomena. These index were selected because of three teleconnection patterns that are known to be important for rainfall erosivity. Through selects month rainfall as calculate rainfall erosivity during 1951-2013 and analyze that ENSO events influence rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan City. The results are indicated as follows: 1) The rainfall erosivity show upward trend and evident seasonal variation and great variation between years. At the same time, the 5 a moving average curve of rainfall erosivity indicates that the general trend is an increase accompanied by fluctuations; 2) Correlation analyses were applied to rainfall erosivity and SST anomalies. The effects of the SST anomalies on rainfall erosivity are highly evident. The rainfall erosivity showed that increased at first and decreases afterwards with the increase of the SST anomalies, and low rainfall erosivity during cold events and slightly high rainfall erosivity during warm events. When other factors that affect soil erosion were fixed, soil erosion was slightly serious during El Ni?o, whereas it was light during La Ni?a; 3) The influence of the SOI on rainfall erosivity was shown by a significant correlation, the rainfall erosivity showed decreases with the increase of the SOI; 4) The MEI explains the effects of the ENSO on Shaoguan rainfall erosivity better than did the other indices assessed in this study. Empirical evidence has shown positive correlation between rainfall erosivity and MEI. Obviously, the MEI includes six variables rather than one variable (SOI and SST), providing a better indicator for representing the state of the ENSO. Through analysis of the effects of the ENSO events on rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan city, these findings can provide a theoretical basis for the comprehensive treatment and prevention of soil erosion, and it has significant importance for the monitoring, evaluation, prediction and treatment of soil erosion.

Key words: rainfall erosivity, El Ni?o, rainfall, Southern Oscillation, MEI

中图分类号:

P467/X16

陈世发. ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1573-1580.

Chen Shifa. Impact of ENSO on Rainfall Erosivity in Shaoguan City During 1951-2013[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(10): 1573-1580.

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性质	起止年月	历时（月）	降雨侵蚀力 [MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)]	性质	起止年月	历时（月）	降雨侵蚀力 [MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)]
ENSO 暖事件	1951.7~1952.1 1953.1~1954.1	7 13	27.45 45.77	ENSO 冷事件	1954.5~1956.5 1964.5~1965.1	25 9	40.68 37.12
	1957.4~1958.7	16	45.06		1967.12~1968.4	5	28.48
	1958.10~1959.2	5	17.85		1970.7~1972.1	19	25.37
	1963.7~1964.2	8	27.82		1973.6~1974.7	14	44.58
	1965.6~1966.4	11	26.84		1974.10~1976.3	6	44.42
	1968.11~1970.1	15	31.13		1984.10~1985.6	9	27.8
	1972.5~1973.3	11	41.73		1988.5~1989.5	13	35.74
	1976.9~1977.2	6	18.03		1995.8~1996.3	8	24.61
	1977.9~1978.1	5	21.81		1998.7~2001.3	33	31.84
	1979.10~1980.2	5	9.36		2007.8~2008.6	11	42.2
	1982.4~1983.6	15	58.8		2010.7~2011.4	10	20.6
	1986.9~1988.2	18	27.99		2011.8~2012.3	7	32.35
	1991.6~1992.7	14	48.9	ENSO暖事件降雨侵蚀力			36.75
	1994.10~1995.3	6	28.97	ENSO冷事件降雨侵蚀力			33.88
	1997.5~1998.5	13	58.69	ENSO冷暖事件降雨侵蚀力			35.44
	2002.6~2003.2	9	45.39	非ENSO冷暖事件降雨侵蚀力			43.83
	2004.7~2005.4	10	26.79	韶关市平均降雨侵蚀力			39.71
	2006.9~2007.1	5	18.16
	2009.7~2010.4	10	34.38