产品结构演化的跨界效应研究——基于中国地级市出口产品的实证分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

使用2002~2013年中国(不包括港澳台地区)地级市出口的四位数产品数据,建立高维固定效应模型探究了新产品的出现与邻近地区之间的关系。回归结果显示产品的演化可以在邻近地区之间跨越行政边界发生,但发生的条件是本地要拥有良好的相关产业基础。同时省间分权作用会阻碍跨边界演化过程。除此之外,跨边界演化机制表现出明显的地区差异与行业差异。

关键词: 跨边界演化, 出口相似性, 知识扩散, 邻近性, 分权

Abstract:

New product promotes the sustainable growth of the local economy. Evolutionary economic geographers believe that the emergence of new products is based on local original products and related industries, saying that the development of new industries demands access to local capability. Local capability is the key source of technological and industrial diversification, which provides potentials for regions to diversify into new technologies and industries. Organizational routines are core concept in an evolutionary approach. Economic evolution can then be understood as the selective transmission of routines among organizational entities. However little attention has yet been paid to the role of spillovers from neighbor regions for industrial diversification. Regions are in an associative network but not absolutely isolated, especially for the neighbor regions. Knowledge spillovers may occur across regions and successful routines may be transferred to neighbor regions by the way of population mobility and spinoff. So this article discusses whether the evolutionary process can cross space and administrative boundaries based on the current evolutionary theories. To answer this question, we analyze the development of new products in Chinese prefecture-level cities during the period 2002-2013 using the HS 4-digit classification data on exports. The results show that the evolution of product can occur across administrative boundaries between neighbor cities, but only when the local has a good foundation of relevant industries. And the decentralization between provinces is a significant barrier for cross-boundary evolution. Besides, taking into account of the different knowledge attributes of products and the regional difference of economic development, there exist significant differences among regions and products in cross-boundary evolutionary mechanisms.

Key words: cross-boundary product evolution, export similarity, knowledge diffusion, proximity, decentralization

中图分类号:

K902

贺灿飞, 任永欢, 李蕴雄. 产品结构演化的跨界效应研究——基于中国地级市出口产品的实证分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1605-1613.

Canfei He, Yonghuan Ren, Yunxiong Li. The Mechanism of Cross-boundary Product Evolution in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on Export Product of Prefecture-level Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(11): 1605-1613.

图/表 5

图1

图2

图3

表1

全国模型估计结果"

	模型 ①	模型 ②	模型 ③
$L Q c, i, t$	0.278^***	0.278^***	0.278^***
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
$d c, i, t$	0.796^***	0.794^***	0.804^***
	(0.0897)	(0.0896)	(0.0916)
$ln L Q nc, i, t$	0.00427^***	0.00319^***	0.000892
	(0.000479)	(0.000658)	(0.00142)
$p$		-0.000983	-0.00132
		(0.00281)	(0.00282)
$p × ln L Q nc, i, t$		0.00153^*	0.00176^**
		(0.000843)	(0.000853)
$d c, i, t × ln L Q nc, i, t$			0.00367^**
			(0.00187)
R²	0.071	0.071	0.071

表1

表2

分地区分产品模型估计结果"

	模型 ④	模型 ⑤	模型 ⑥	模型 ⑦	模型 ⑧
$L Q c, i, t$	0.247^***	0.313^***	0.361^***	0.419^***	0.202^***
	(0.0226)	(0.0481)	(0.0635)	(0.126)	(0.038)
$d c, i, t$	1.607^***	0.513^***	0.298^***	0.909^***	1.043^***
	(0.167)	(0.121)	(0.111)	(0.22)	(0.166)
$ln L Q nc, i, t$	-0.00623^**	0.00225	0.0130^***	0.00167	-0.00046
	(0.00305)	(0.00321)	(0.00418)	(0.00847)	(0.0033)
$p$	-0.00368	-0.00356	0.0107^**	0.0108	0.0136^*
	(0.00372)	(0.00467)	(0.00489)	(0.0146)	(0.00742)
$p × ln L Q nc, i, t$	-0.00097	0.00323^**	0.00262^*	-0.00253	-0.00121
	(0.00134)	(0.00134)	(0.00142)	(0.00557)	(0.00238)
$d c, i, t × ln L Q nc, i, t$	0.0188^***	0.00277	-0.0116^***	0.00871	0.00805^*
	(0.00576)	(0.00428)	(0.00439)	(0.0106)	(0.00411)
样本	58558	45981	23055	2791	18100
R²	0.083	0.08	0.147	0.241	0.127

表2

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