中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.016

地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 1729-1735.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.016

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

罗秋菊^1,²(), 罗倩文³

1.中山大学旅游学院,广东广州 510275
2.中山大学旅游发展与规划中心,广东广州 510275
3.厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

收稿日期:2015-12-25 修回日期:2016-03-23 出版日期:2016-11-10 发布日期:2016-11-10
作者简介:
作者简介：罗秋菊（1968-）,女,江西新余人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事会展与节事旅游研究。E-mail:bettyluoqiuju@126.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目 (15BGL110) 资助

Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects

Qiuju Luo^1,²(), Qianwen Luo³

1.School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Gaungdong, China
2.Center for Tourism Planning & Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Gaungdong, China;
3.School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China

Received:2015-12-25 Revised:2016-03-23 Online:2016-11-10 Published:2016-11-10
Supported by:
National Social Science Foundation of China (15BGL110).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：① 中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;② 展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集（HH）、低低聚集（LL）两种空间聚集格局;③ 现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;④ SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。

关键词: 展览业, 区域经济发展水平, 空间自相关性, 空间溢出效应, 空间计量经济模型

Abstract:

This article took the exhibition industry in China as an example to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of exhibition industry and economic development level. It also measured the spatial correlation of exhibition industry and regional economic development level with Moran’s I index and its scatter plot. After the observation of spatial correlation, this article constructed a spatial econometric model, then, on this basis, explored the model’s merit compared with classical regression model to indicate the spatial spillover effects. The results showed that: 1) regional exhibition industry and economic development level are seriously imbalanced between east and west China; 2) exhibition industry and economic development level show a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and strong spatial correlation between each other, especially, high-high correlation and low-low correlation obtained; 3) at the present stage, the number and the size of exhibition centers do have a positive relationship with economic development level, but the relationship between the factors of exhibition scale and economy are most significant; 4) SLM has higher explanatory ability than classical regression model,and exhibition industry have significant spatial spillover effect in the regional economy. It implied that considering space factors in events’ economic impact assessment model is necessary.

Key words: exhibition industry, regional economic development level, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spill

中图分类号:

K902

罗秋菊, 罗倩文. 中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1729-1735.

Qiuju Luo, Qianwen Luo. Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(11): 1729-1735.

图/表 2

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解释变量	经典回归模型OLS估计			SLM模型的ML估计
解释变量	回归系数		P值	回归系数	P值
常数项	6.762	0.000		6.164	0.000
lnEQ	0.425	0.000		0.403	0.000
lnVQ	0.459	0.003		0.433	0.000
lnUM	-0.210	0.036		-0.207	0.013
WlnGDP	/	/		0.080	0.037
R²	0.838		0.858
P值	8.702E-011		0.042
Log likelihood	-14.679		-12.608
Akaike info criterion	37.358		35.217
Schwarz criterion	43.094		42.386

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects

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