中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.016

地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 1729-1735.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.016

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

罗秋菊^1,²(), 罗倩文³

1.中山大学旅游学院,广东广州 510275
2.中山大学旅游发展与规划中心,广东广州 510275
3.厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

收稿日期:2015-12-25 修回日期:2016-03-23 出版日期:2016-11-10 发布日期:2016-11-10
作者简介:
作者简介：罗秋菊（1968-）,女,江西新余人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事会展与节事旅游研究。E-mail:bettyluoqiuju@126.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目 (15BGL110) 资助

Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects

Qiuju Luo^1,²(), Qianwen Luo³

1.School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Gaungdong, China
2.Center for Tourism Planning & Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Gaungdong, China;
3.School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China

Received:2015-12-25 Revised:2016-03-23 Online:2016-11-10 Published:2016-11-10
Supported by:
National Social Science Foundation of China (15BGL110).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：① 中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;② 展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集（HH）、低低聚集（LL）两种空间聚集格局;③ 现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;④ SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。

关键词: 展览业, 区域经济发展水平, 空间自相关性, 空间溢出效应, 空间计量经济模型

Abstract:

This article took the exhibition industry in China as an example to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of exhibition industry and economic development level. It also measured the spatial correlation of exhibition industry and regional economic development level with Moran’s I index and its scatter plot. After the observation of spatial correlation, this article constructed a spatial econometric model, then, on this basis, explored the model’s merit compared with classical regression model to indicate the spatial spillover effects. The results showed that: 1) regional exhibition industry and economic development level are seriously imbalanced between east and west China; 2) exhibition industry and economic development level show a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and strong spatial correlation between each other, especially, high-high correlation and low-low correlation obtained; 3) at the present stage, the number and the size of exhibition centers do have a positive relationship with economic development level, but the relationship between the factors of exhibition scale and economy are most significant; 4) SLM has higher explanatory ability than classical regression model,and exhibition industry have significant spatial spillover effect in the regional economy. It implied that considering space factors in events’ economic impact assessment model is necessary.

Key words: exhibition industry, regional economic development level, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spill

中图分类号:

K902

罗秋菊, 罗倩文. 中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1729-1735.

Qiuju Luo, Qianwen Luo. Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(11): 1729-1735.

图/表 2

参考文献 23

[1]	Kim S S, Chon K, Chung K Y.Convention industry in South Korea: an economic impact analysis[J]. Tourism Management,2003,24(5):533-541. doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00006-2
[2]	Hanly P A.Measuring the economic contribution of the international association conference market: An Irish case study[J]. Tourism Management,2012,33(6):1574-1582. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2011.12.010,
[3]	McHone W W, Rungeling B. Special cultural events: do they attract leisure tourists?[J]. Hospitality Management,1999,18(2):215-219. doi: 10.1016/S0278-4319(99)00015-8
[4]	Kay A L K. China's convention and exhibition center boom[J]. Journal of Convention & Event Tourism, 2005,7(1): 5-22. doi: 10.1300/J452v07n01_02
[5]	Yoo J J.Progress in convention tourism research[J]. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research,2005,29(2): 194-222. doi: 10.1177/1096348004272177
[6]	Lee M J, Back K.A review of economic value drivers in convention and meeting management research[J]. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management,2005b,17(5): 409-420 doi: 10.1108/09596110510604832
[7]	Carlsen J.A review of MICE industry evaluation and research in Asia and Australia 1988-1998[J]. Journal of Convention & Exhibition Management, 1999,1(4):51-66. doi: 10.1300/J143v01n04_05
[8]	Lee M J.Analytical reflections on the economic impact assessment of conventions and special events[J]. Journal of Convention & Event Tourism,2006,8(3):71-85. doi: 10.1300/J452v08n03_04
[9]	Getz D.Event tourism: Definition, evolution, and research[J]. Tourism Management,2008,29(3):403-428. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.017
[10]	罗秋菊,庞嘉文,靳文敏. 基于投入产出模型的大型活动对举办地的经济影响——以广交会为例[J]. 地理学报,2011,66(4):487-503. doi: 10.11821/xb201104006
	[Luo Qiuju, Pang Jiawen, Jin Wenmin.An empirical study on the economic impact of the event with Input-Output model: A case study of Canton Fair, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011,66(4):487-503.] doi: 10.11821/xb201104006
[11]	Connell J, Page S J.Evaluating the economic and spatial effects of an event: The case of the World Medical and Health Games[J]. Tourism Geographies,2005,7(1):63-85. doi: 10.1080/1461668042000324067
[12]	Bernini C.Convention industry and destination clusters: Evidence from Italy[J]. Tourism Management,2009,30(6):878-889. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.12.004
[13]	Jin X, Weber K, Bauer T.Impact of clusters on exhibition destination attractiveness:Evidence from Mainland China[J]. Tourism Management,2012,33(6):1429-1439. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.01.005
[14]	方忠权. 广州会展企业空间集聚特征与影响因素[J]. 地理学报,2013,68(4):464-476. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0375-5444.2013.04.003
	[Fang Zhongquan.The agglomeration characteristics and influencing factors of exhibition enterprises in Guangzhou. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,68(4):464-476.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0375-5444.2013.04.003
[15]	杨欣,金李梅. 中国会展业时空分布特征[J]. 经济地理,2014,34(8):96-102.
	[Yang Xin, Jin Limei.The spatio-temporal characteristics of exhibition industry in China. Economic Geography,2014,34(8):96-102.]
[16]	Mistilis N, Dwyer L.Tourism gateways and regional economies: The distributional impacts of MICE[J]. International Journal of Tourism Research, 1999,1(6):441-457. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1522-1970(199911/12)1:63.0.CO;2-8
[17]	Daniels M J.Central place theory and sport tourism impacts[J]. Annals of Tourism Research,2007,34(2):332-347. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2006.09.004
[18]	吴玉鸣. 考虑空间效应的我国省域旅游产业弹性估计[J]. 旅游学刊,2010,25(8):18-25. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2010.08.008
	[Wu Yuming.Estimation of regional R&D elasticities of China’s provinces with spatial effects into consideration. Tourism Tribune,2010,25(8):18-25.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2010.08.008
[19]	吴玉鸣. 旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析[J]. 旅游学刊,2014,29(2):16-24. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.02.002
	[Wu Yuming.Spatial panel econometric analysis of tourism economic growth and its spillover effects. Tourism Tribune,2014,29(2):16-24.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.02.002
[20]	赵磊,方成,吴向明. 旅游发展、空间溢出与经济增长——来自我国的经验证据[J]. 旅游学刊,2014,29(5):16-30. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.05.002
	[Zhao Lei, Fang Cheng, Wu Xiangming.Tourism development, spatial spillover and economic growth: An empirical evidence from China. Tourism Tribune,2014,29(5):16-30.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.05.002
[21]	国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2011-2013.
	[National Bureau of Statistics. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2013.]
[22]	Gursoy D, Kim K, Uysal M.Perceived impacts of festivals and special events by organizers: an extension and validation[J]. Tourism Management,2004,25(2):171-181. doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00092-X
[23]	中国会展经济研究会. 中国展览数据统计报告[R/OL]. .
	[China Convention and Exhibition Society. Statistics Report of China Exhibition Industry. .

解释变量	经典回归模型OLS估计			SLM模型的ML估计
解释变量	回归系数		P值	回归系数	P值
常数项	6.762	0.000		6.164	0.000
lnEQ	0.425	0.000		0.403	0.000
lnVQ	0.459	0.003		0.433	0.000
lnUM	-0.210	0.036		-0.207	0.013
WlnGDP	/	/		0.080	0.037
R²	0.838		0.858
P值	8.702E-011		0.042
Log likelihood	-14.679		-12.608
Akaike info criterion	37.358		35.217
Schwarz criterion	43.094		42.386

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 2

参考文献 23

相关文章 10

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	张伟丽, 叶信岳, 李栋, 傅继彬, 吴梦荷. 网络关联、空间溢出效应与中国区域经济增长——基于腾讯位置大数据的研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(9): 1371-1377.
[2]	张建伟,赵建吉,肖文杰,苗长虹,姜海宁,刘丽. 豫皖湘赣承接产业转移的空间计量经济分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(1): 140-146.
[3]	马仁锋, 候勃, 张文忠, 袁海红, 窦思敏. 海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(2): 177-185.
[4]	刘清春, 张莹莹, 李传美. 基于空间杜宾模型的山东省制造业时空分异研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(5): 691-700.
[5]	王雪辉, 谷国锋. 基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1617-1623.
[6]	吕海萍, 池仁勇, 化祥雨. 创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据的实证分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1649-1658.
[7]	赵林, 张宇硕, 焦新颖, 吴迪, 吴殿廷. 河南省基本公共服务质量空间格局与空间效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1495-1504.
[8]	张建伟, 苗长虹, 姜海宁. 中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(5): 515-520.
[9]	张战仁, 杜德斌. 在华跨国公司研发投资集聚的空间溢出效应及区位决定因素——基于中国省市数据的空间计量经济研究[J]. 地理科学, 2010, 30(1): 15-21.
[10]	吴玉鸣, 李建霞. 中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析[J]. 地理科学, 2006, 26(4): 385-391.