地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12): 1784-1792.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经济基础理论的中国城市基本-非基本经济活动关系的实证检验

关皓明1,2(), 张平宇1()   

  1. 1.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林 长春 130102
    2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-18 修回日期:2016-06-08 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:关皓明(1988-),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail: guanhaoming@iga.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571152)、中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015005)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41201159、41201160)和中国科学院重点部署项目(KSZD-EW-Z-021)资助

Empirical Test on the Relationship Between Urban Basic-Nonbasic Economic Activities in China Based on the Theory of Economic Base

Haoming Guan1,2(), Pingyu Zhang1()   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-12-18 Revised:2016-06-08 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(41571152, 41201159, 41201160);Major Consulting Project of Science and Technology Strategic Consulting and Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y02015005),Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KSZD-EW-Z-021)

摘要:

经济基础理论是分析城市经济活动的经典理论之一,但此理论既没有获得全面认可也没有被完全否定。基于改进的区位商方法、线性回归模型和VAR模型,选取吉林省中小城市、三亚市、海口市、深圳市、广州市作为研究对象,对其基本-非基本经济活动关系进行实证检验。研究发现:1991~2013年,规模相对较小的海口市发展动力主要来源于基本经济活动,与经济基础理论相符合;规模大的广州市经济活动的表现形式与经济基础理论不相符。研究结果表明:“基本-非基本经济活动比例关系随着城市规模的扩大而逐渐减小”这一城市发展必然现象假说对于具备相当规模和一定水平的城市成立,存在城市规模门槛。运用边际乘数法估计“乘数效应”更加有效,平均乘数法估计“乘数效应”存在明显不足。规模大的城市其基本经济活动产生的“乘数效应”弱化,城市经济活动已不符合基本经济模式,表现为基本-非基本经济活动相互依存的模式。结合实证结果,提出了2个有待进一步验证的假设。

关键词: 经济基础理论, 乘数效应, VAR模型, 城市规模

Abstract:

Economic Base Theory is one of the classical theories of urban economic activity. Up to now, there have been a lot of empirical research on Economic Base Theory, but the theory has not been fully recognized and has not been completely denied. Among them, research consensus emphasis that Economic Base Theory should be used to analyze the city with small size and simple economic activities, but there is no definite conclusion about the upper limit of the city scale. Therefore, it is necessary to do more empirical researches. On the basis of existing research, aiming at the lack of empirical test research on the Economic Base Theory, based on the improved location quotient method, linear regression model and VAR model, the small and medium-sized cities of Jilin Province, Sanya City, Haikou City, Shenzhen City and Guangzhou City are selected as the empirical test objects. The test hypothesis include: 1) The proportion of basic economic activities is gradually reduced with the expansion of city scale. 2) With the expansion of urban scale, the basic economic activities of the ‘multiplier effects’ are weakened. 3) Basic economic activities are the main driving force for urban development. The empirical contents are divided into three parts: 1) Based on the improved location quotient method, the urban economic activities are divided into the basic- nonbasic economic activities. 2) The ‘multiplier effects’ of the basic economic activity is estimated by the average multiplier method and the marginal multiplier method. 3) VAR model and impulse response function are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between the basic and non basic economic activities. Main research results are as follows: From 1991 to 2013, the development process of small scale of Haikou City followed the Economic Base Theory, the driving forces were mainly from the basic economic activities. The economic activities of Guangzhou City were not in conformity with the economic base theory. The main conclusions are the following: first, for a city with considerable scale and certain development level, the proportion of basic-nonbasic economic activities gradually decreases with the expansion of the scale of the city. Second, using the marginal multiplier method to estimate the ‘multiplier effects’ is effective, the average multiplier method to estimate the ‘multiplier effects’ is obviously insufficient. Third, the ‘multiplier effects’ caused by the basic economic activities of the larger cities is weakened, and the urban economic activities are not in line with the Economic Base Model, which is shown as the interdependent model of basic-nonbasic economic activities. Based on the empirical results, two hypotheses are put forward. First, for a small size city, the basic economic activities could have a ‘multiplier effects’ which is related to the size of the basic economic activities and the growth rate of the basic economic activities. Second, for a small city and small cities in a region as a whole, the driving force of development could be evaluated by comparing the value of ‘multiplier effects’ with 1.

Key words: Economic Base Theory, multiplier effects, VAR model, urban size

中图分类号: 

  • K902