东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以2003~2012年东北地区34个地级市数据为基础^①(① 本文提及的地级市包括哈尔滨、长春、沈阳和大连4个副省级城市。),通过构建城镇化指数、生态环境压力指数,分析东北地区的城镇化发展及生态环境压力发展的时空演变特征,测度东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩指数,判断其城镇化与生态环境的脱钩关系并探讨其发生变化的影响因素。结果表明：① 生态环境压力是城镇化累积作用的结果,呈现出一定的时空滞后效应;② 近10 a来,东北地区的城市发展经历了城镇化与生态环境由脱钩状态为主体向脱钩状态与负脱钩状态并举的演变过程,城市个体城镇化对生态环境效应的稳定性差;③ 投资驱动、资源型经济、生态环境倒逼和创新转型驱动等是东北地区城镇化对生态环境产生脱钩差异的根本原因。资源型经济和投资驱动是城镇化对生态环境产生压力的主要动因;生态环境倒逼和创新转型发展是摆脱城镇化对生态环境压力的关键动力。

关键词: 城镇化, 生态环境, 脱钩分析, 东北地区

Abstract:

Based on data from 34 prefecture-level cities in the Northeastern China from 2003 to 2012, this article analyzes the spatiotemporal change characteristics of the urbanization and eco-environmental pressure development in the Northeastern China by building Urbanization Index and Eco-environmental Pressure Index. It also measures urbanization and environmental decoupling indicators, and judges the decoupling state of the urbanization and eco-environmental, then discusses influence factors which lead the state changed. The major findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The ecological stress is the consequence of urbanization accumulation effect, it presents somewhat spatiotemporal hysteresis role. 2) For nearly 10 years, the cities in the northeastern China experienced the evolution of urbanization and eco-environment from dominated decoupling state to both decoupling state and re-coupling state, the stability of the effect of individual urbanization on eco-environment is bad. 3) The reasons for the different effects of urbanization in the Northeastern China on eco-environmental are the diversified driving factors, such as investment-driven approach, resource-based economy, forced eco-environment as well as connotative and innovative development. Resource-based economy and investment-driven approach are main causes of pressure of urbanization on eco-environment. Moreover, there are two reasons influencing the coordinated development of the urbanization and eco-environment, the one is the forced eco-environment, and the other is connotative development.

Key words: urbanization, eco-environment, decoupling analysis, Northeast China

中图分类号:

F129.9

刘贺贺, 杨青山, 张郁. 东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(12): 1860-1869.

Hehe Liu, Qingshan Yang, Yu Zhang. Urbanization and Ecological Environment Effect in Northeast China Based on Decoupling Analysis[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2016, 36(12): 1860-1869.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

图2

表3

东北地区地级市城镇化与生态环境压力的脱钩程度"

城市/指标	T₁（2003~2007年）					T₂（2008~2012年）
城市/指标	△UI		△EEPI	ES	状态	△UI	△EEPI	ES	状态
沈阳市	0.203	0.049	0.240	弱脱钩		-0.053	0.051	-0.962	强负脱钩
大连市	0.155	0.171	1.104	扩张性连接		-0.009	-0.028	3.295	衰退性脱钩
鞍山市	0.158	0.185	1.167	扩张性连接		-0.088	-0.150	1.706	衰退性脱钩
抚顺市	0.123	0.228	1.854	扩张性负脱钩		0.035	0.118	3.386	扩张性负脱钩
本溪市	0.142	0.412	2.892	扩张性负脱钩		0.060	0.243	4.023	扩张性负脱钩
丹东市	0.144	0.148	1.033	扩张性连接		0.040	-0.098	-2.424	强脱钩
锦州市	0.075	0.079	1.046	扩张性连接		0.014	0.077	5.603	扩张性负脱钩
营口市	0.332	-0.002	-0.007	强脱钩		0.005	0.188	35.496	扩张性负脱钩
阜新市	0.175	-0.283	-1.617	强脱钩		0.065	-0.227	-3.514	强脱钩
辽阳市	0.194	0.259	1.334	扩张性负脱钩		-0.042	-0.328	7.812	衰退性脱钩
盘锦市	0.030	0.149	4.966	扩张性负脱钩		-0.080	-0.031	0.390	弱负脱钩
铁岭市	0.346	0.378	1.092	扩张性连接		-0.152	0.105	-0.696	强负脱钩
朝阳市	0.014	0.095	6.800	扩张性负脱钩		0.044	-0.001	-0.019	强脱钩
葫芦岛市	0.130	-0.037	-0.287	强脱钩		-0.009	0.007	-0.698	强负脱钩
长春市	-0.085	-0.040	0.471	弱负脱钩		-0.044	-0.047	1.060	衰退性连接
吉林市	-0.164	-0.275	1.672	衰退性脱钩		-0.003	0.070	-21.072	强负脱钩
四平市	-0.150	-0.100	0.666	弱负脱钩		-0.006	0.066	-12.026	强负脱钩
辽源市	0.008	-0.049	-6.439	强脱钩		-0.064	0.118	-1.845	强负脱钩
通化市	-0.132	-0.279	2.116	衰退性脱钩		-0.022	-0.243	11.215	衰退性脱钩
白山市	0.225	-0.346	-1.537	强脱钩		-0.216	0.827	-3.822	强负脱钩
松原市	-0.031	-0.167	5.366	衰退性脱钩		-0.064	-0.007	0.115	弱负脱钩
白城市	-0.311	-0.150	0.483	弱负脱钩		0.014	-0.014	-0.964	强脱钩
哈尔滨市	-0.214	-0.013	0.061	弱负脱钩		0.080	-0.025	-0.316	强脱钩
齐齐哈尔市	-0.106	0.017	-0.162	强负脱钩		0.071	-0.004	-0.052	强脱钩
鸡西市	0.063	0.063	1.001	扩张性连接		0.075	-0.145	-1.926	强脱钩
鹤岗市	0.095	-0.014	-0.146	强脱钩		0.062	0.032	0.516	弱脱钩
双鸭山市	-0.060	-0.177	2.955	衰退性脱钩		0.293	-0.017	-0.057	强脱钩
大庆市	-0.099	-0.094	0.946	衰退性连接		0.001	0.113	114.513	扩张性负脱钩
伊春市	0.174	0.010	0.057	弱脱钩		0.084	-0.013	-0.154	强脱钩
佳木斯市	-0.086	0.192	-2.238	强负脱钩		0.080	0.260	3.269	扩张性负脱钩
七台河市	-0.087	0.087	-1.002	强负脱钩		-0.017	0.058	-3.427	强负脱钩
牡丹江市	-0.136	0.056	-0.408	强负脱钩		-0.035	-0.118	3.342	衰退性脱钩
黑河市	0.081	0.022	0.272	弱脱钩		-0.145	-0.116	0.801	衰退性连接
绥化市	0.190	0.019	0.099	弱脱钩		-0.037	-0.045	1.235	衰退性脱钩

表3

表4

负脱钩状态城市资源保障程度与各项城镇化指标的回归结果"

Variable	$Co ef.$	$Std. Err.$	$t - S tat.$	$Prob.$
C	1.653	0.577	2.863	0.0058^**
UP	-1.160	0.523	-2.216	0.0305^*
USS	-0.208	0.071	-2.933	0.0048^**
UE	-0.052	0.324	-0.160	0.8736
US	-0.128	0.092	-1.386	0.1708

表4

表5

表6

脱钩状态城市资源保障程度与各项城镇化指标的回归结果"

Variable	$Co ef.$	$Std. Err.$	$t - Stat.$	$Prob.$
C	1.143	0.765	1.494	0.1405
UP	-0.941	0.816	-1.153	0.2536
USS	-0.135	0.081	-1.671	0.0999^*
UE	0.233	0.339	0.687	0.4946
US	-0.165	0.111	-1.493	0.1406

表6

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系统	一级指标	二级指标	系统	一级指标	二级指标
城镇化系统综合指标	人口城镇化	非农业人口占比	生态环境系统综合指标	资源、能源条件要素	人均全年供水总量
	人口城镇化	二、三产业就业人员比重			人均全年用电总量
	空间城镇化	每万人拥有建成区面积			人均液化石油气供气总量
	空间城镇化	人均城市道路面积	生态保障要素		建成区绿化覆盖率
	经济城镇化	人均GDP	生态保障要素		人均拥有绿地面积
	经济城镇化	二、三产业增加值占GDP比重	生态威胁要素		人均工业废水排放量^*
	社会城镇化	人均社会消费品零售总额	生态威胁要素		人均工业SO₂排放量^*
	社会城镇化	人均固定资产投资额	人均工业粉尘排放量^*

脱钩程度	脱钩（De-coupling）			连接（Inter-linking）			负脱钩（Re-coupling）
脱钩程度	强脱钩（DC-I）		弱脱钩（DC-II）	衰退性脱钩（DC-III）	衰退性连接 (IL-I)	扩张性连接 (IL-II)	扩张性负脱钩(RC-I)	弱负脱钩 (RC-II)	强负脱钩 (RC-III)
ΔUI_t	ΔUI_t>0	ΔUI_t>0	ΔUI_t<0	ΔUIt<0	ΔUI_t>0		ΔUI_t>0	ΔUI_t<0	ΔUI_t<0
ΔEEPI_t	ΔEEPI_t<0	ΔEEPI_t>0	ΔEEPI_t<0	ΔEEPI_t<0	ΔEEPI_t>0		ΔEEPI_t>0	ΔEEPI_t<0	ΔEEPI_t>0
ES_t	ES_t<0	0<ES_t<0.8	ES_t>1.2	0.8<ES_t<1.2	0.8<ES_t<1.2		ES_t>1.2	0<ES_t<0.8	ES_t<0

Variable	Co ef.	Std. Err.	t-Stat.	Prob.
C	3.870	1.054	3.671	0.0005^**
UP	2.383	0.956	2.494	0.0154^*
USS	0.111	0.130	0.858	0.3943
UE	1.079	0.591	1.826	0.0728^*
US	0.506	0.168	3.009	0.0038^**