地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 161-171.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.02.001
• • 下一篇
韩增林1,2(), 孙嘉泽1(
), 刘天宝2, 彭飞1, 钟敬秋1,2
收稿日期:
2016-03-14
修回日期:
2016-09-20
出版日期:
2017-02-25
发布日期:
2017-02-25
作者简介:
作者简介:韩增林(1956-),男,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事区域发展规划、交通运输地理及海洋经济地理等研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Zenglin Han1,2(), Jiaze Sun1(
), Tianbao Liu2, Fei Peng1, Jingqiu Zhong1,2
Received:
2016-03-14
Revised:
2016-09-20
Online:
2017-02-25
Published:
2017-02-25
Supported by:
摘要:
使用DEA-Malmquist方法在对比1994~2013年间中国东北三省、东部、中部和西部地区之间创新全要素生产率(TFP)时空差异的基础上,分析了东北三省内部创新TFP的时空演变特征,并运用PVAR模型对东北三省创新TFP的发展趋势进行了预测。研究表明:① 从空间格局上看东北三省创新TFP增速略高于西部地区,但低于中部和东部地区;② 东北三省创新TFP增长的主要动力来源于技术进步,在东北三省内部吉林省创新TFP的增长最快,其增长动力主要源于纯效率变化,其次为技术进步;而辽宁省和黑龙江省创新TFP的动力主要是技术进步;③ 预测显示东北三省创新TFP增长幅度未来会逐渐放缓,其增长的主要动力将会由技术进步转变为规模效率的改进。
中图分类号:
韩增林, 孙嘉泽, 刘天宝, 彭飞, 钟敬秋. 东北三省创新全要素生产率增长的时空特征及其发展趋势预测[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(2): 161-171.
Zenglin Han, Jiaze Sun, Tianbao Liu, Fei Peng, Jingqiu Zhong. The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Development Trend Forecast of Innovative TFP Growth in China’s Three Northeastern Provinces[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(2): 161-171.
表2
1995~2013年东北三省创新TFP及其分解结果"
指数 | Malmquist | PEC | PTC | SEC | STC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1995~1996 | 1.300 | 1.048 | 1.254 | 1.044 | 0.947 |
1996~1997 | 0.910 | 0.933 | 0.979 | 1.135 | 0.877 |
1997~1998 | 1.158 | 1.061 | 1.084 | 0.683 | 1.475 |
1998~1999 | 1.059 | 1.073 | 1.001 | 1.197 | 0.824 |
1999~2000 | 1.527 | 1.095 | 1.409 | 0.982 | 1.008 |
2000~2001 | 0.728 | 0.966 | 1.011 | 0.857 | 0.871 |
2001~2002 | 1.087 | 0.951 | 1.227 | 1.443 | 0.645 |
2002~2003 | 0.808 | 0.522 | 1.775 | 0.658 | 1.327 |
2003~2004 | 1.204 | 1.558 | 0.698 | 1.224 | 0.905 |
2004~2005 | 1.342 | 0.994 | 1.297 | 1.272 | 0.819 |
2005~2006 | 0.914 | 0.923 | 0.882 | 1.100 | 1.019 |
2006~2007 | 1.532 | 0.920 | 1.382 | 0.975 | 1.237 |
2007~2008 | 0.697 | 0.887 | 0.980 | 1.095 | 0.732 |
2008~2009 | 1.563 | 1.443 | 1.025 | 0.737 | 1.434 |
2009~2010 | 0.819 | 0.622 | 0.998 | 1.300 | 1.013 |
2010~2011 | 1.260 | 1.043 | 1.234 | 0.992 | 0.987 |
2011~2012 | 0.874 | 1.089 | 0.800 | 1.016 | 0.987 |
2012~2013 | 0.850 | 0.932 | 0.911 | 1.025 | 0.976 |
1995~2013 | 1.091 | 1.003 | 1.108 | 1.041 | 1.004 |
表3
东北三省创新TFP及其分解(1995~2013)"
时期 | 地区 | Malmquist | PEC | PTC | SEC | STC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
黑龙江 | 1.075 | 1.011 | 1.072 | 1.065 | 0.991 | |
1995~2002年 | 吉林 | 1.244 | 1.103 | 1.111 | 1.019 | 1.016 |
辽宁 | 1.120 | 1.017 | 1.139 | 1.062 | 0.972 | |
黑龙江 | 1.104 | 1.097 | 1.200 | 1.003 | 1.043 | |
2002~2008年 | 吉林 | 1.654 | 1.547 | 1.351 | 1.025 | 1.055 |
辽宁 | 1.051 | 0.950 | 1.203 | 1.039 | 0.999 | |
黑龙江 | 1.018 | 1.008 | 0.978 | 0.952 | 1.105 | |
2008~2013年 | 吉林 | 1.156 | 1.248 | 0.940 | 0.947 | 1.093 |
辽宁 | 1.111 | 1.036 | 1.054 | 1.001 | 1.027 | |
黑龙江 | 1.069 | 1.039 | 1.088 | 1.013 | 1.040 | |
1995~2013年 | 吉林 | 1.356 | 1.291 | 1.144 | 1.001 | 1.050 |
辽宁 | 1.094 | 1.000 | 1.136 | 1.037 | 0.996 |
表5
PVAR 模型 GMM 估计结果"
VARIABLES | Malmquist | PTC | PEC | STC | SEC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
L.Malmquist | -1.833*** | -0.0998 | -2.327*** | -0.182*** | 0.150*** |
(0.181) | (0.106) | (0.355) | (0.0291) | (0.0354) | |
L.PTC | 1.682*** | -0.305 | 2.820*** | 0.319*** | -0.222*** |
(0.235) | (0.191) | (0.483) | (0.0494) | (0.0566) | |
L.PEC | 1.453*** | 0.409*** | 1.268*** | 0.162*** | -0.103*** |
(0.114) | (0.0852) | (0.196) | (0.0215) | (0.0298) | |
L.STC | 4.903*** | 1.532*** | 5.388*** | -0.371*** | 0.318** |
(0.584) | (0.315) | (0.732) | (0.120) | (0.146) | |
L.SEC | 5.832*** | 2.479*** | 5.730*** | 0.307** | -0.287* |
(0.631) | (0.300) | (0.805) | (0.120) | (0.163) | |
Observations | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
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