Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 广告合作 联系我们 English
旧版网站  
 
优先出版  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  热点文章  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行
地理科学    2017, Vol. 37 Issue (2): 217-227     DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.02.007
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
贵州省乡村贫困空间格局与形成机制分析
王永明1,2(),王美霞2,3,吴殿廷1(),赵林1,丁建军2
1.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
2.吉首大学商学院,湖南 吉首 416000
3.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南 长沙 410081
Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Case of Guizhou Province, China
Yongming Wang1,2(),Meixia Wang2,3,Dianting Wu1(),Lin Zhao1,Jianjun Ding2
1.Faculty of Geography Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. School of Business, Jishou University, Jishou 416000, Hunan, China
3. College of Resource and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, Hunan
全文: PDF (5096 KB)   HTML
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)     
摘要 

以贫困态势严峻、区域内部贫困差异大的贵州省为研究区,分析了贵州省区县层面乡村贫困的空间异质性和空间依赖性格局,定量测度了乡村贫困空间差异的影响因素和因素效应的空间差异性,进而归纳了贵州省乡村贫困的形成机制。结果发现,贵州省区县乡村贫困具有时空稳定性,呈现出东、南、西部高而中、北部低的“马蹄”形空间异质性格局。区县贫困存在较强的空间依赖性,“高-高”型贫困地域即空间贫困陷阱区域,集聚分布在贵州省的东南部、南部。定量模型发现,坡度、到所在市中心的距离、青少年人口占比、少数民族人口占比是导致贵州区县层面乡村贫困空间差异的显著因素,且这些因素的效应水平呈现出不同的空间模式。产业发展受限、劳动力流动性差、金融和人力资本积累不足是贵州贫困空间形成的主导机制。最后建议扶贫政策层面应将基于地方和基于人的政策相结合。

服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
王永明
王美霞
吴殿廷
赵林
丁建军
关键词 乡村贫困空间格局空间自相关地理加权回归贵州 
Abstract

China has been a long-period fast economic growth after its opening policy. The whole degree of poverty in China has decreased sharply, which plays an important role in fulfilling Millennium Development Goals (MDG) made by the United Nations. As a developing country, however, China still has a challenge of reducing poverty and promoting regional development. Rural poverty is still a serious problem in rural China, especially in mountainous or ethnic areas. Different scales of governments in China develop much poverty-alleviation policy, but the efficacy of these policy are sometimes low because “one size fits all” policy always neglect regional difference in poverty resulting from different contexts of different places. Spatial patterns and determinants of regional poverty is a key theme for scholars from many disciplines. Giving that determinants of rural poverty in different places are different and the effects of significant factor are dependent on spatial scales, there is a need for more empirical evidences at different scales or in different regions. Furthermore there is little study to explore the spatial variations of effects of determinants. The present article can fill these gap to some extent through analyzing the determinants of county-level poverty and its spatial variation of their effects within Guizhou Province in the southwestern China. The rate of county-level poverty is largely different within this province. Based on methods of OLS regression, spatial econometric and geographic weighted regression (GWR), this article studies spatial variations and determinants of rural poverty at the county level. The results show that rate of rural poverty is higher in the eastern, southern, western counties than middle and northern counterparts. There is a significant spatial autocorrelation of rural poverty, for index of Moran’s I is between 0.45 and 0.55, which indicates that poverty of neighboring counties have a positive effect on the poverty of a specific county. Some counties with a high-high poor pattern fall into spatial trap of poverty based on results of index of Local Moran’s I. These counties are located at southeast and southern parts of Guizhou and have a high proportion of ethnic minorities’ population. For the determinants, the OLS estimation results show that topographic slope, distance to a local urban center, the percentage of teenagers, the percentage of ethnic minorities are key determinants of spatial variations in rural poverty at the county level. The effects of these four factors are found to have different spatial patterns based on GWR analysis. There is no significant effect for distance to the provincial capital on the rural poverty. The above results have important policy implication. The core implication is to combine place-based and people-based policy, which surpass the current Poverty-Targeting-Alleviation (jing zhun fu pin) initiatives dominating poverty-reduction policy of China’s governments.

Key wordsrural poverty    spatial pattern    spatial autocorrelation    geographic weighed regression    Guizhou Province
收稿日期: 2016-02-23      出版日期: 2017-04-18
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41361030, 41561032);北京师范大学“985”专项研究项目(2015KJJCB29)资助
引用本文:   
王永明, 王美霞, 吴殿廷等 . 贵州省乡村贫困空间格局与形成机制分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(2): 217-227.
Yongming Wang, Meixia Wang, Dianting Wu et al . Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Case of Guizhou Province, China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(2): 217-227.
链接本文:  
http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.02.007      或      http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/Y2017/V37/I2/217
Fig.1  贵州地形和行政区划
维度 变量 计算方法 单位 数据来源
贫困发生率 直接获得 % 《贵州统计年鉴》
地理 平均海拔 ArcGIS栅格统计 m 30 m×30 m的贵州DEM
坡度0占比(0°~4°) ArcGIS坡度分析、栅格统计 % 同上
坡度1占比(4°~8°) 同上 % 同上
坡度2占比(8°~15°) 同上 % 同上
坡度3占比(15°~30°) 同上 % 同上
坡度4占比(>30°) 同上 % 同上
到贵阳市中心距离 ArcGIS点距离工具(区县行政驻地到贵阳
行政驻地的欧式距离)
km 国家基础地理信息系统库
到所在市中心距离 同上(区县行政驻地到所在市行政驻地的
欧式距离)
km 同上
经济 人均耕地 耕地面积/乡村总人口 hm2/人 《贵州统计年鉴》
工业化率 工业增加值/国内生产总值 % 《贵州统计年鉴》
人口 青少年比 乡村人口中14岁以下的青少年人口数/乡村总人口 % 贵州省2010年人口普查资料
老年人比 乡村人口中60岁以上老年人人口数/乡村总人口 % 贵州省2010年人口普查资料
文盲比 直接获得 % 贵州省2010年人口普查资料
文化 少数民族比 乡村人口中的非汉族人口数/乡村总人口 % 贵州省2010年人口普查资料
Table 1  变量和指标说明
时期 贫困线
(元)
贫困发生率(%) 省贫困发
生率(%)
均值 标准差 最小值 最大值
2005~2007年 964 7.26 2.96 0.30 12.97 7.3
2008~2010年 1123 15.40 5.85 0.30 24.10 15.3
2011~2013年 2300 26.86 11.79 0.70 47.67 27.2
Table 2  贵州省乡村贫困率的描述性统计
Fig.2  贵州省乡村贫困的空间分布
Fig.3  贵州省乡村贫困的局部空间依赖性
时期 I E[I] 均值 标准差 Z Pseudo p
2005~2007年 0.455 -0.012 -0.013 0.075 6.276 0.001
2008~2010年 0.546 -0.012 -0.006 0.075 7.342 0.001
2011~2013年 0.549 -0.012 -0.014 0.073 7.709 0.001
Table 3  贵州省乡村贫困全局空间依赖指数
类型 2005~2007年 2008~2010年 2011~2013年
-* 望谟县、罗甸县、三都县、榕江、
雷山、剑河
望谟县、罗甸县、荔波、三都县、榕江、雷
山、黎平、台江、剑河、天柱、施秉、镇远
望谟县、罗甸县、荔波、三都县、榕江、从
江、雷山、黎平、剑河、天柱、施秉、镇远
- 正安、绥阳、湄潭、遵义、红花岗、
金沙、息烽、修文、白云、乌当、云
岩、南明、花溪
桐梓、正安、绥阳、湄潭、遵义、红花岗、仁
怀、金沙、息烽、修文、白云、乌当、云岩、
南明、花溪、开阳
正安、绥阳、湄潭、遵义、红花岗、金沙、息
烽、开阳、修文、清镇、白云、乌当、云岩、
南明、花溪
- 六枝特区、惠水、都匀、凯里 六枝特区、都匀、凯里 六枝特区、都匀、凯里
- 习水 习水 习水
不显著 61个县区 54个县区 54个县区
Table 4  贵州省乡村贫困地域类型和空间贫困陷阱区
因变量 回归系数 标准误 t 显著性p
常数 -50.175 12.168 -4.120 0.000
平均海拔 0.006 0.003 1.610 0.111
坡度2占比 0.265 0.302 0.880 0.383
坡度3占比 0.366 0.156 2.350 0.021
坡度4占比 0.242 0.326 0.740 0.461
到贵阳市中心距离 -0.017 0.014 -1.230 0.221
到所在市中心距离 0.055 0.023 2.430 0.018
人均耕地 -13.264 46.427 -0.290 0.776
工业化率 0.079 0.055 1.430 0.156
青少年比 1.127 0.275 4.100 0.000
老年人比 0.526 0.392 1.340 0.184
少数民族比 0.225 0.033 6.870 0.000
文盲比 -0.215 0.240 -0.890 0.374
空间依赖性诊断 p
Moran's I(error) 0.349 0.727
LM-LAG 2.167 0.141
LM-ERR 0.429 0.513
Robust LM-LAG 9.747 0.002
Robust LM-ERR 8.008 0.005
Table 5  OLS回归结果和回归残差的空间依赖性检验
Fig.4  GWR分析结果
Fig.5  贵州省乡村贫困空间的形成机制
[1] Alkire S, Foster J.Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement[J].Journal of Public Economics, 2011,95(7):476-487.http://www.mendeley.com/research/sciencedirectcom-journal-public-economics-counting-multidimensional-poverty-measurement/
[2] 刘艳华,徐勇.中国农村多维贫困地理识别及类型划分[J].地理学报, 2015,70(6): 993-1007.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dlxb201506012 [Liu Yanhua, Xu Yong.Geographical identification and classification of multi-dimensional poverty in rural China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(6): 993-1007.]
[3] 王艳慧,钱乐毅,段福洲. 县级多维贫困度量及其空间分布格局研究——以连片特困区扶贫重点县为例[J].地理科学, 2013, 33(12):1489-1497.http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DLKX201312011.htm
[Wang Yanhui, Qian Leyi, Duan Fuzhou.Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Spatial Distribution Pattern at the Country Scale: A Case Study on Key Country from National Contiguous Special Poverty-stricken Areas. Scientia Geographic Sinica, 2013, 33(12):1489-1497.]
[4] Ravallion M, Wodon Q.Poor areas, or only poor people?[J].Journal of Regional science, 1999, 39(4): 689-711.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/0022-4146.00156/full
[5] 刘卫东. 经济地理学思维[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.
[Liu Weidong.Thoughts of economic geography. Beijing: The Science Press, 2013.]
[6] Green A E.The geography of poverty and wealth[M]. Warwick, UK: The Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, 1994.
[7] Kodras J E.The changing map of American poverty in an era of economic restructuring and political realignment[J]. Economic Geography, 1997, 73(1):67-93.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1944-8287.1997.tb00085.x/full
[8] Katherine J Curtis, Paul R Voss, David D.Long. Spatial variation in poverty-generating processes: Child poverty in the United States[J]. Social Science Research, 2012, (41): 14-59.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X11001372
[9] Epprecht M, Müller D, Minot N.How remote are Vietnam’s ethnic minorities? An analysis of spatial patterns of poverty and inequality[J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 2011, 46(2): 349-368.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00168-009-0330-7
[10] Ravallion M, Chen S.China’s (uneven) progress against poverty[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2007, 82(1): 1-42.
[11] 万广华,张茵.中国沿海与内地贫困差异之解析: 基于回归的分解方法[J].经济研究,2008,12:75-84.http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-JJYJ200812008.htm
[Wan Guanghua, Zhang Yin.Resource Inefficiency Not Resources Shortage Causing Higher Poverty in Inland China. Economic Research, 2008, 12:75-84.]
[12] 丁建军. 中国11个集中连片特困区贫困程度比较研究——基于综合发展指数计算的视角[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(12), 1418-1427.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dlkx201412002.aspx
[Ding Jianjun.Comparative Analysis on Poverty Degree of China’s 11 Contiguous Destitute Areas: with View of Comprehensive Development Index. Scientia Geographic Sinica, 2014, 34(12):1418-427.]
[13] 郭来喜,姜德华.中国贫困地区环境类型研究[J]. 地理研究, 1995,24(2): 1-7.http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DLYJ502.000.htm [Guo Laixi, Jiang Dehua.A study on classification and development of the poor areas in China. Geographical Research, 1995, 24(2): 1-7.]
[14] Ravallion M, Jalan J.Spatial poverty traps[R]? Washington: The World Bank, 1862.
[15] Bird K, Shepherd A.Livelihoods and Chronic Poverty in Semi-arid Zimbabwe[J]. World Development, 2003, 31(3):591-610.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X02002206
[16] Okwi P O, Ndeng’e G,Kristjanson P et al. Spatial determinants of poverty in rural Kenya[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007, 104(43):16769-16774.http://www.jstor.org/stable/25450132
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0611107104      PMID: 17942704     
[17] 曲玮,涂勤,牛叔文,. 自然地理环境的贫困效应检验——自然地理条件对农村贫困影响的实证分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2012, (2) : 21-34.http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-ZNJJ201202002.htm
[Qu Wei, Tu Qin,Niu Shuwen et al. Test on effects of physical geography on poverty. Chinese Rural Economy, 2012, (2): 21-34.]
[18] 丁文广,冶伟峰,米璇,.甘肃省不同地理区域灾害与贫困耦合关系量化研究[J].经济地理, 2013, 33(3): 28-35.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/jjdl201303005
[Ding Wenguang, Ye Weifeng, Mi Xuan et al. A quantitative research of coupled relationship between disasters and poverty in different geographic regions in Gansu province. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(3): 28-35.]
[19] Ravallion M, Chen S.‘China’s (uneven) progress against poverty[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2007, 82(1): 1-42.
[20] 丁建军. 武陵山片区经济增长益贫性与空间差异演变——基于2000~2011年县域数据的实证分析[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 948-960. [Ding Jianjun.The pro-poor properties of economic growth and spatial difference evolution in Wuling mountain area: A positive analysis of the county data from 2000 to 2011. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(5): 948-960.]
[21] Gustafsson B, Li S.The ethnic minority-majority income gap in rural China during transition[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2003, 51(4): 805-822.http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/edcc.2003.51.issue-4
DOI: 10.1086/377191     
[22] Gallup J L, Sachs J D, Mellinger A D.Geography and economic development[J]. International Regional Science Review, 1999, 22: 179-232.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470752036.ch2/pdf
[23] Partridge M, Rickman D.Distance from urban agglomeration economics and rural poverty[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2008, 48(2):285-310.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2008.00552.x/full
[24] Anselin L.Spatial econometrics: methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988.http://www.jstor.org/stable/143780
[25] 罗庆, 李小建.国外农村贫困地理研究进展[J]. 经济地理, 2014, 24(6): 1-8.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/jjdl201406001
[Luo Qing, Li Xiaojian.The research progress of foreign rural poverty geography[J]. Economic Geography, 2014, 24(6):1-8.]
[26] D V D Walle,D Gunewardena.2001. Sources of ethnic inequality in Vietnam[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 65:177-207.
[27] Baulch B.Ethnic minority development in Vietnam[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2007, 43(7):1151-1176.http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673030701526278
[28] Fotheringham A S, Brunsdon C, Charlton M.Quantitative geography: Perspectives on spatial data analysis[M]. London: SAGE Publications, 2000.
[29] 贵州省统计局, 国家统计局贵州调查总队. 贵州统计年鉴2011[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2011.
[Statistical Bureau of Guizhou Province, NBS survey office in Guizhou. Statistical yearbook of Guizhou in 2011. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011.]
[30] 贵州省统计局, 国家统计局贵州调查总队. 贵州统计年鉴2012[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2012.
[Statistical Bureau of Guizhou Province, NBS survey office in Guizhou. Statistical yearbook of Guizhou in 2012. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012.]
[31] 贵州省统计局, 国家统计局贵州调查总队. 贵州统计年鉴2013[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2013.
[Statistical Bureau of Guizhou Province, NBS survey office in Guizhou. Statistical yearbook of Guizhou in 2013. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.]
[32] 贵州省统计局, 国家统计局贵州调查总队. 贵州统计年鉴2014[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2014
[Statistical Bureau of Guizhou Province, NBS survey office in Guizhou. Statistical yearbook of Guizhou in 2014. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2014.]
[33] 贵州省第六次人口普查领导小组办公室. 贵州省2010年人口普查资料[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2012.
[The Sixth Census Leading Group Office of Guizhou Province. Census data of Guizhou Province in 2010. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012.]
[1] 刘艳军,田俊峰,付占辉,刘德刚. 哈大巨型城市带要素集聚程度与生态环境水平关系演变[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(2): 172-180.
[2] 王丽,曹有挥,仇方道. 高铁开通前后站区产业空间格局变动及驱动机制——以沪宁城际南京站为例[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(1): 19-27.
[3] 杨宇,董雯,刘毅,李小云. 东北地区资源型产业发展特征及对策建议[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(9): 1359-1370.
[4] 王姣娥,杜德林. 东北振兴以来地区经济发展水平演化及空间分异模式[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(9): 1320-1329.
[5] 张立生. 基于市级尺度的中国城乡协调发展空间演化[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(8): 1165-1171.
[6] 李在军,张雅倩,胡美娟,马志飞,吴启焰. 新时期中国经济增长的空间格局[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(8): 1134-1140.
[7] 周侃. 中国环境污染的时空差异与集聚特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(7): 989-997.
[8] 潘竟虎,胡艳兴,刘晓,张建辉. 中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展效率的时空分异测度[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 512-520.
[9] 杜志威,吕拉昌,黄茹. 中国地级以上城市工业创新效率空间格局研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(3): 321-327.
[10] 胡曙虹,黄丽,范蓓蕾,肖刚. 中国高校创新产出的空间溢出效应与区域经济增长——基于省域数据的空间计量经济分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(12): 1767-1776.
[11] 罗秋菊,罗倩文. 中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1729-1735.
[12] 贺三维,王伟武,曾晨,刘明辉. 中国区域发展时空格局变化分析及其预测[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1622-1628.
[13] 赵林,张宇硕,焦新颖,吴迪,吴殿廷. 河南省基本公共服务质量空间格局与空间效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1495-1504.
[14] 杨永春,宋美娜,史坤博,金淑婷,王梅梅,张伟芳. 渐进制度变迁模式下中国城市转型测度的空间分异[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1466-1473.
[15] 王建康,谷国锋,姚丽,陈园园. 中国新型城镇化的空间格局演变及影响因素分析——基于285个地级市的面板数据[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(1): 63-71.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《地理科学》编辑部
地址:长春市高新北区盛北大街4888号 邮编:130102 电话:+86 431 85542324 E-mail: geoscien@neigae.ac.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn