地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 283-291.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.02.015
郑江禹1(), 张强2,3,4(
), 史培军2,3,4, 顾西辉1, 郑泳杰1
收稿日期:
2016-03-03
修回日期:
2016-06-11
出版日期:
2017-02-25
发布日期:
2017-02-25
作者简介:
作者简介:郑江禹(1993-),男,江西宜春人,硕士研究生,主要从事气象水文学研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Jiangyu Zheng1(), Qiang Zhang2,3,4(
), Peijun Shi2,3,4, Xihu Gu1, Yongjie Zheng1
Received:
2016-03-03
Revised:
2016-06-11
Online:
2017-02-25
Published:
2017-02-25
Supported by:
摘要:
基于珠江流域74个气象站点1952~2013年逐日降水和气温数据,采用POT抽样、Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验、泊松回归等方法,从降水量级、降水频率及发生时间等方面系统分析了珠江流域年、雨季及旱季3个时间尺度上的极端降水特征,并从降水对温度变化响应及ENSO影响等角度,探讨了极端降水变化特征的机理。研究表明:① 珠江流域极端降水年内分布不均,多发于4~9月,其中6月份发生频率最高;② 珠江流域极端降水频率在雨季及年际间分布较为均匀。但在旱季,珠三角地区极端降水在不同年份差异性较大;③ 在雨季及年际尺度上,极端降水年序列趋势性并不显著;而相对干旱季节,极端降雨量级、发生频次均随年份增加呈显著上升趋势,且发生时间提前。珠江流域农业以水稻(Oryzasativa)种植为主,旱季极端降水增加易导致冬汛及其引起的作物倒伏与农田渍涝等灾害,同时对秋冬防洪提出新的挑战,需要引起人们的关注;④ 温度升高和ENSO事件对珠江流域极端降水过程有显著影响。从ENSO影响的角度讲,在厄尔尼诺年,珠江流域西部极端降水量级和频率增加,而流域东部沿海区域极端降水量级减少,时间延后。
中图分类号:
郑江禹, 张强, 史培军, 顾西辉, 郑泳杰. 珠江流域多尺度极端降水时空特征及影响因子研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(2): 283-291.
Jiangyu Zheng, Qiang Zhang, Peijun Shi, Xihu Gu, Yongjie Zheng. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Regimes and Related Driving Factors in the Pearl River Basin[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(2): 283-291.
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