地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 691-700.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.05.006

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基于空间杜宾模型的山东省制造业时空分异研究

刘清春, 张莹莹, 李传美()   

  1. 1.山东财经大学经济学院, 山东 济南 250014
    2.山东财经大学区域经济研究院, 山东 济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-01 修回日期:2016-11-23 出版日期:2017-05-25 发布日期:2017-05-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘清春(1979-),女,山东诸城人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为区域经济。E-mail:lqc7919@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41401163)、山东省软科学重点项目(2014RZB01009)资助

Spatial Pattern Change of Manufacturing Industry in Shandong Province Based on Spatial Durbin Model

Qingchun Liu, Yingying Zhang, Chuanmei Li()   

  1. 1.School of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
    2. Research Institute of Regional Economy, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-09-01 Revised:2016-11-23 Online:2017-05-25 Published:2017-05-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (41401163), Major Program of Soft Science of Shandong Province (2014RZB01009)

摘要:

利用2003~2014年山东省17个地级市制造业27个部门的面板数据,研究了山东省制造业的时空分异特征,并基于空间杜宾模型(SDM)探讨了主要的影响因素,结果发现:山东省制造业份额呈现出自东向西递减、先东部集聚后向中西部扩散的规律。以2007年为转折点,制造业呈现东部沿海转出、内陆转入的特点,鲁北地区成为份额增长最快的区域。由于空间溢出效应的存在,市场规模、交通基础设施、产业规模和人力资本水平均有助于提升本地区制造业份额。因此,应该从地区关联的角度重新审视制造业发展规律并制定相应政策措施。

关键词: 空间杜宾模型, 制造业, 空间自相关性, 山东省

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of 27 subsectors of manufacturing industry of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2014, using the share of the city’s manufacturing output accounting for the province’s total manufacturing output, the article analyzed the characteristics of the temporal and spatial pattern of the manufacturing industry and three sectors in Shandong Province, then investigated the main influencing factors based on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, on the spatial distribution of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province during the past 12 years, it showed the decreasing trend from the east to the west, as well as the pattern of spatial clustering in eastern region toward to the mid and west region. As to the change of spatial distribution, since 2007 the total manufacturing industry showed the transfer out from the eastern costal region to the inland region, and the northern region in Shandong Province has become an important region of attracting industry. For the change of subsectors, most of the manufacturing subsectors, especially the textile, furniture manufacturing as the representative of the labor-intensive sectors, were accelerating the transfer from the eastern region to the inland. Secondly, there is obvious spatial autocorrelation for the distribution of manufacturing industry, showing that the distribution of manufacturing industry at the city level is impacted by the geographic location and adjacent relation. The expansion of the scale of local market and enterprises, the improvement of transportation infrastructure and human capital level contributed to increase the share of manufacturing industry in the region, while the rising labor cost was the constraint factor of the development of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province. Due to the spatial spillover, the improvement of transportation infrastructure could promote the manufacturing industry of the neighboring regions, but both the expansion of the scale of local market and enterprises showed inhibitory effects. And the human capital had no obvious effects. Lastly, the article put forward some suggestions of the development of manufacturing industry, such as improving the level of human capital in east region to promote the industry upgrading, and investing on the transportation infrastructure in the mid and west region, and establishing the regional cooperation mechanism of economic integration and so on.

Key words: Spatial Durbin Model, manufacturing industry, spatial autocorrelation, Shandong Province

中图分类号: 

  • F719