基于空间杜宾模型的山东省制造业时空分异研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.05.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2003~2014年山东省17个地级市制造业27个部门的面板数据,研究了山东省制造业的时空分异特征,并基于空间杜宾模型（SDM）探讨了主要的影响因素,结果发现：山东省制造业份额呈现出自东向西递减、先东部集聚后向中西部扩散的规律。以2007年为转折点,制造业呈现东部沿海转出、内陆转入的特点,鲁北地区成为份额增长最快的区域。由于空间溢出效应的存在,市场规模、交通基础设施、产业规模和人力资本水平均有助于提升本地区制造业份额。因此,应该从地区关联的角度重新审视制造业发展规律并制定相应政策措施。

关键词: 空间杜宾模型, 制造业, 空间自相关性, 山东省

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of 27 subsectors of manufacturing industry of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2014, using the share of the city’s manufacturing output accounting for the province’s total manufacturing output, the article analyzed the characteristics of the temporal and spatial pattern of the manufacturing industry and three sectors in Shandong Province, then investigated the main influencing factors based on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, on the spatial distribution of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province during the past 12 years, it showed the decreasing trend from the east to the west, as well as the pattern of spatial clustering in eastern region toward to the mid and west region. As to the change of spatial distribution, since 2007 the total manufacturing industry showed the transfer out from the eastern costal region to the inland region, and the northern region in Shandong Province has become an important region of attracting industry. For the change of subsectors, most of the manufacturing subsectors, especially the textile, furniture manufacturing as the representative of the labor-intensive sectors, were accelerating the transfer from the eastern region to the inland. Secondly, there is obvious spatial autocorrelation for the distribution of manufacturing industry, showing that the distribution of manufacturing industry at the city level is impacted by the geographic location and adjacent relation. The expansion of the scale of local market and enterprises, the improvement of transportation infrastructure and human capital level contributed to increase the share of manufacturing industry in the region, while the rising labor cost was the constraint factor of the development of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province. Due to the spatial spillover, the improvement of transportation infrastructure could promote the manufacturing industry of the neighboring regions, but both the expansion of the scale of local market and enterprises showed inhibitory effects. And the human capital had no obvious effects. Lastly, the article put forward some suggestions of the development of manufacturing industry, such as improving the level of human capital in east region to promote the industry upgrading, and investing on the transportation infrastructure in the mid and west region, and establishing the regional cooperation mechanism of economic integration and so on.

Key words: Spatial Durbin Model, manufacturing industry, spatial autocorrelation, Shandong Province

中图分类号:

F719

刘清春, 张莹莹, 李传美. 基于空间杜宾模型的山东省制造业时空分异研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(5): 691-700.

Qingchun Liu, Yingying Zhang, Chuanmei Li. Spatial Pattern Change of Manufacturing Industry in Shandong Province Based on Spatial Durbin Model[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(5): 691-700.

图/表 6

图1

图3

表1

山东省主要制造业部门份额变动的区域对比（%）"

制造业部门		鲁东地区			鲁北地区		鲁西地区			鲁南地区			鲁中地区
制造业部门		2003~ 2007年		2007~ 2014年		2003~ 2007年	2007~ 2014年		2003~ 2007年	2007~ 2014年	2003~ 2007年	2007~ 2014年	2003~ 2007年	2007~ 2014年
1	农副食品加工业	-5.7	-10.4		3.5	3.2	1.8	3.0		-0.3	2.9		0.7	1.2
2	食品制造业	-2.6	-7.1		9.6	1.3	1.7	5.3		-6.6	0.8		-2.2	-0.4
3	饮料制造业	-7.1	-7.1		6	1.7	1.5	2.6		-1.4	1.5		1	1.3
4	纺织业	-7.4	-13.8		8.9	9.9	2.6	6.8		-0.1	-1.1		-3.9	-1.8
5	纺织、鞋、帽制品业	-16.6	-12.6		3.7	1.7	2.2	5.5		6.4	4.5		4.3	0.9
6	皮革、毛皮、羽毛（绒）及制品业	-9.3	-22.6		4.7	5.8	3.3	6.9		2.2	6.9		-1	2.9
7	木材加工及木竹藤棕草制品业	-12.7	-12.0		1.1	-0.5	1	15.5		12.4	-2.4		-1.8	-0.6
8	家具制造业	3.7	-16.0		-0.2	5.2	3.2	11.2		4.5	-0.1		-11.3	-0.3
9	造纸及纸制品业	-1.1	-8.6		2	-4.1	1.7	-0.2		-0.7	12.9		-1.9	0.0
10	印刷和记录媒介复制业	-16.9	44.2		13.1	-68.4	-3.6	7.7		-4.9	6.7		-27.6	9.9
11	文教体育用品制造业	-13	-11.2		-1.3	7.4	0.9	16.3		12.1	-11.1		1.3	-1.3
12	石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业	2.7	6.0		-11.2	14.8	-0.6	2.0		2.5	-1.6		6.6	-21.3
13	非金属矿物制品业	-4.5	-4.5		2.9	7.0	1.8	5.2		-1	0.2		0.8	-8.0
14	黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业	-4.2	2.6		5.8	1.2	2.6	7.6		4.9	8.2		-9.2	-19.6
15	有色金属冶炼及压延加工业	9.5	-13.6		1.4	20.5	9.5	-2.6		1.3	0.9		-21.7	-5.2
16	金属制品业	-7.8	-12.4		6	8.6	2.3	2.7		5.2	-0.1		-5.7	1.2
17	通用设备制造业	-17.6	-11.2		5.6	5.5	4.5	7.7		6.7	-1.7		0.7	-0.3
18	专用设备制造业	-5.9	-8.5		2.6	12.9	0.5	-6.5		0.1	-1.9		2.7	4.0
19	仪器仪表及文化、办公用品的制造	12	-18.5		-6.2	5.6	1.3	1.8		1.4	5.0		-8.5	6.0
20	橡胶制品业	-4	-39.4		0.6	22.8	1.5	2.7		0.3	10.7		1.5	3.2
21	化学纤维制造业	27.3	-13.0		-2.5	16.6	0.8	15.4		0.8	3.8		-26.4	-22.8
22	医药制造业	11.8	-7.7		-4.2	18.0	3.2	7.1		7.5	-11.1		-18.3	-6.3
23	化学原料和化学制品制造业	0	-15.0		0.3	17.8	1.1	7.4		3.2	-5.1		-4.6	-5.1
24	交通运输设备制造	-6.6	7.4		7.4	-3.1	0.4	6.9		1.2	-2.9		-2.5	-8.4
25	电气机械及器材制造业	-8.4	-19.3		-0.1	7.1	1.9	4.0		3.4	3.9		3	4.2
26	计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业	15.2	4.0		1.1	1.2	0.1	2.1		0.4	0.5		-16.8	-7.8
27	工艺品及其他制造品	-10.6	-19.3		-1.4	7.0	6.3	-5.9		5.2	12.3		0.6	5.9

表1

表2

表3

表4

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年份	制造业	劳动密集型	资本密集型	技术密集型
2003	0.325**	0.492***	0.275*	0.144
2004	0.318*	0.388***	0.154	0.237*
2005	0.362**	0.387***	0.098	0.357***
2006	0.382**	0.337**	0.087	0.400***
2007	0.341**	0.340**	0.030	0.384***
2008	0.349**	0.256*	0.083	0.402***
2009	0.356**	0.272*	0.056	0.406***
2010	0.278*	0.216*	0.030	0.343**
2011	0.270*	0.235*	0.101	0.324**
2012	0.265*	0.278*	0.104	0.292*
2013	0.263*	0.268*	0.097	0.290*
2014	0.258*	0.253*	0.086	0.287*

	制造业总体				劳动密集型	资本密集型	技术密集型
	SLM		SEM	SDM	SDM	OLS	SDM
OPEN	0.560	0.606	0.382		-0.129	0.647	0.328
SCALE	0.353***	0.532***	0.611***		0.317***	0.389***	0.429***
PGDP	0.284***	0.275***	1.172***		1.093***	0.299***	1.411**
TRANS	0.135***	0.147***	0.109***		0.077***	0.121***	0.099***
HC	0.151*	0.108*	0.105*		0.065*	0.152*	0.186*
WAGE	-0.137***	-0.129***	-0.043*		-0.068*	-0.150**	-0.021*
GOV	-0.697***	-0.778**	0.158		-0.061	-0.734	0.509*
W×OPEN			0.911***		1.230**		-0.678
W×SCALE			-0.594***		-0.407**		-0.655**
W×PGDP			-1.002***		-1.113***		-0.606**
W×TRANS			0.079*		0.138***		0.042
W×HC			0.021		0.063		0.064
W×WAGE			-0.1*		-0.028**		-0.001
W×GOV			0.371		-0.199*		-1.341***
ρ	0.101*	0.254*	0.160*		0.116*		0.102*
Log-likelihood	54.583	68.383	103.59		111.025	80.3801	77.28
样本数量	204	204	204		204	204	204

	制造业总体			劳动密集型行业			技术密集型行业
	直接效应		间接效应		直接效应	间接效应	直接效应	间接效应
OPEN	0.424	1.077*		-0.079	1.335*		0.349	-0.749
SCALE	0.594***	-0.574*		0.307***	-0.415*		0.464***	-0.666***
PGDP	1.137***	-0.944***		1.054***	-1.092***		1.488***	-0.751***
TRANS	0.102**	0.209*		0.084***	0.175**		0.101**	0.050
HC	0.088**	0.050		0.06*	0.09		0.171*	0.045
WAGE	-0.096*	-0.122		-0.057*	-0.023		-0.005*	0.001
GOV	0.144	-0.424		0.055	-0.241		0.567*	-1.328***