合肥经济圈空间关联时空演进研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.05.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从城市产业角度出发,依据2009~2014年的相关数据,采用城市流和ESDA模型对合肥经济圈空间关联进行分析,揭示空间相互作用的时间演变过程和空间分布。结果表明：① 经济圈形成了较稳定的中心-外围格局,空间结构呈现以合肥为中心圈层式向外辐射状,淮南和六安有望成为次增长极。② 经济圈产业外向功能性不强且出现异化,城市流倾向度呈现明显的等级异质性和不均衡性。③ 经济圈产业外向发展存在显著的空间依赖性,空间自相关符合距离衰减规律。④ 经济圈区域不平衡态势明显,空间关联的时空分异特征明显。应推进区域一体化,加快区域协调发展。

关键词: 空间相互作用, 城市流模型, 合肥经济圈

Abstract:

The coordinated development of center city and the city in the edge area has been the hot topics in the study of economic geography, spatial interaction theory is an important theoretical basis for the study. From the perspective of urban industry, based on the related data of 2009-2014. The article based on the intensity of urban flow model and ESDA method analyzed the spatial correlation of Hefei Economic Circle, explored the time evolution process and space distribution of spatial interaction. The results showed that: 1) Economic circle has formed a more stable “the center-periphery” urban spatial pattern, the layout features of spatial correlation of urban flow of economic circle present a layers of type and radial outward which is centered around Hefei, Huainan and Lu’an is expected to become the main candidates of secondary growth pole in the Hefei Economic Circle. 2) The correlation between most economic circle core cities and other cities trends to increase gradually, the correlation between part of the cities in the edge area and core cities presents mixed, the regularity is not obvious, the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of spatial correlation is obvious. Hefei Economic Circle area situation shows unbalanced clearly, the spatial differentiation characteristics of spatial correlation and the regularity of evolution shows obviously. 3) The industrial development of Hefei Economic Circle is closely related to the industrial development of the neighboring regions. There exists a significant spatial dependence on the spatial distribution of the development of outgoing service industry, but its spatial autocorrelation is consistent with the law of distance attenuation. The outgoing service industry function of the central city industry needs to be strengthened, the inadequate development of outgoing service industry result in the not high connection intensity between central city and other cities, the gap between the cities is more and more big, it shows obvious heterogeneity in the spatial correlation of the intensity of urban flow. The situation of regional imbalance in economic circle aggravate, the space “spillover effect” of economic circle should be further improved. 4) Compared with other nation’s mature urban agglomeration, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the cities of Hefei Economic Circle, but the spatial correlation is looser. Hefei has the effect of central city, but this kind of central city agglomeration ability is weak, the overall spatial correlation intensity between each city of the economic circle is low. It should promote regional integration, and accelerate the coordinated development of region.

Key words: spatial interaction, urban flow model, Hefei Economic Circle

中图分类号:

F591.99

朱道才, 孙家敏, 陆林. 合肥经济圈空间关联时空演进研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(5): 738-747.

Daocai Zhu, Jiamin Sun, Lin Lu. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Hefei Economic Circle’s Spatial Correlation[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(5): 738-747.

图/表 6

图1

表1

表2

合肥经济圈城市流强度全局自相关的时间演变"

年份	$Moran’s I$	显著水平
2009	0.1793	0.001
2010	0.1547	0.002
2011	0.1129	0.002
2012	0.2327	0.001
2013	0.2770	0.001
2014	0.1550	0.002

表2

图2

表3

合肥经济圈外向功能量和城市流倾向度"

	行业	制造业	建筑业	交通运输业等	信息传输业等	批发和零售业	住宿和餐饮业	金融业	房地产业	科学研究等	教育	卫生业等	文化业等	公共管理业等	外向功能
	行业	制造业	建筑业	交通运输业等	信息传输业等	批发和零售业	住宿和餐饮业	金融业	房地产业	科学研究等	教育	卫生业等	文化业等	公共管理业等	E_i	K_i
2009年	合肥	1.188	0.081	0.412	0.035	0.438	0.168	0	0	0.552	0	0	0.169	0	3.043	0.064
	六安	0	0.800	0	0.039	0	0	0	0	0	0.543	0.225	0	0.354	1.960	0.263
	巢湖	0.300	0	0	0.025	0	0	0	0	0	0.202	0.111	0	0.376	1.014	0.220
	淮南	0.110	0	0	0	0	0	0.162	0.315	0	0.338	0.145	0	0	1.070	0.078
	桐城	0	0	0	0.004	0.053	0	0.027	0	0	0.473	0.121	0.007	0.198	0.882	0.481
2010年	合肥	1.581	0.185	0.497	0.056	0.634	0	0	0	0.546	0	0	0.163	0	3.663	0.066
	六安	0	0.674	0	0.020	0	0.208	0	0	0	0.505	0.202	0	0.324	1.933	0.221
	巢湖	0.173	0	0	0.027	0	0	0.003	0	0	0.267	0.164	0	0.447	1.081	0.235
	淮南	0	0.078	0	0	0	0	0.169	0.449	0	0.412	0.204	0	0.026	1.337	0.094
	桐城	0	0	0	0.004	0.029	0	0.040	0	0	0.496	0.128	0.009	0.219	0.926	0.486
2011年	合肥	2.646	1.018	0.456	0.136	0	0	0.122	0	0.707	0	0	0.091	0	5.175	0.073
	六安	0	0	0	0	2.574	0.883	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.824	4.282	0.265
	淮南	0	0.088	0.048	0	0	0	0.282	0.521	0	0.738	0.438	0	0.098	2.214	0.129
	桐城	0	0	0	0.009	0	0	0.060	0	0	0.557	0.154	0.010	0.232	1.022	0.499
2012年	合肥	1.877	4.107	0.055	0.011	0	0	0.014	0	0.683	0	0	0.060	0	6.808	0.235
	六安	0.577	0.172	0.056	0.127	3.574	1.321	0	0	0	0.185	0.181	0.134	1.230	7.557	1.891
	淮南	0	0	0.208	0	0	0	0.375	0.706	0	0.936	0.494	0	0.281	2.999	0.536
	桐城	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.182	0	0	0	0.182	0.077
2013年	合肥	0	7.174	0.221	0.250	0	0	0	0	0.248	0	0	0	0	7.893	0.074
	六安	0	0	0	0	2.772	1.194	0	0	0	0	0	0.146	1.059	5.171	0.260
	淮南	0.430	0	0.206	0	0	0	0.384	0.664	0.114	1.222	0.690	0	0.562	4.273	0.259
	桐城	0.045	0	0	0	0	0	0.030	0	0	0.514	0.112	0	0.198	0.899	0.255
2014年	合肥	1.986	12.266	0.945	0.391	1.502	0.553	0	0.077	0.814	0	0	0.213	0	18.747	0.171
	六安	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.166	0.075	0	0.088	0.329	0.014
	淮南	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.311	0.439	0	0.662	0.358	0	0.375	2.146	0.086
	桐城	2.812	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.220	0	0	0.032	3.064	0.376
	滁州	1.064	0	0.275	0.260	0	0	0.214	0	0	0.215	0.121	0	0.422	2.571	0.294

表3

图3

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年份	距离（km）
年份	76	89	102	115	127	140	153	165	178	190
2009	0.1773	0.1731	0.1701	0.1679	0.1658	0.1649	0.1634	0.1621	0.1611	0.1598
2010	0.1501	0.1553	0.1569	0.1547	0.1539	0.1512	0.1498	0.1475	0.1453	0.1422
2011	0.1121	0.1192	0.1185	0.1199	0.1163	0.1147	0.1132	0.1123	0.1119	0.1109
2012	0.2311	0.2297	0.2277	0.2254	0.2231	0.2210	0.2191	0.2145	0.2123	0.2049
2013	0.2456	0.2412	0.2374	0.2325	0.2230	0.2131	0.2087	0.2103	0.2090	0.1893
2014	0.1488	0.1542	0.1501	0.1487	0.1456	0.1431	0.1412	0.1378	0.1353	0.1346