1960~2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.08.017

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 1259-1269.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.08.017

1960~2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析

高文华¹(), 李开封^1,², 崔豫¹

1.河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封 475004
2.中国地质科学院年轻沉积物年代学与水文环境变化重点实验室,河北石家庄 050061

收稿日期:2016-09-19 修回日期:2016-12-07 出版日期:2017-08-15 发布日期:2017-08-15
作者简介:
作者简介：高文华（1985-）,女,山西阳泉人,博士,研究方向：全球气候变化、沉积动力学中的示踪方法。E-mail: gaowenhua@henu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41501214）、中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所联合开放基金项目（KF201509）、河南大学引进博士科研启动基金项目（B2014242,B2015075）资助

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Temperature Events in Henan Province During 1960-2014

Wenhua Gao¹(), Kaifeng Li^1,², Yu Cui¹

1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
2. Key Laboratory of Quaternary Chronology and Hydro-Environment Evolution, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, Hebei, China

Received:2016-09-19 Revised:2016-12-07 Online:2017-08-15 Published:2017-08-15
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501214);Open Foundation of the Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (KF201509);Scientific Research Foundation for the Introduction of Doctor in Henan University (B2014242, B2015075).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于河南1960~2014年18个气象台站逐日最高温、最低温、平均气温实测数据,采用线性趋势、相关分析等方法,根据选取的16个极端气温指数,分析了河南省极端气温变化趋势和空间差异,探讨了极端气温指数的影响因素以及与该区气候变化的关系。结果表明：① 河南近55 a来日最高气温的极小值、最低气温的极大/小值、暖昼/夜日数、夏季日数、热夜日数、暖持续日数、生物生长季呈现增大/加趋势;日最高气温的极大值、冷昼/夜日数、冰/霜冻日数、冷持续日数和气温日较差呈现减小/少趋势。② 极端最低气温的变暖主要发生在黄淮海平原区、豫西南南阳盆地以及豫南桐柏山-大别山山地丘陵区;而极端最高气温的变暖则主要发生在豫西山地丘陵区。③ 与中国其他地区相比,河南极端气温近55 a的变化速率较慢,低温出现的日数显著减少;但近20 a来大部分极端气温指数的变化速率均提高了2倍多,表明该区极端气温进入了加速变化阶段。④ 相关分析表明河南极端气温指数变化可以指示该区气候变化,且地形条件是该区极端气温空间变化的控制因素。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端气温, 时空变化, 河南

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature (average, maximum and minimum) data of 18 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in Henan province, the variation trends and spatial differences of 16 extreme temperature indices are analyzed by using the linear regression and correlation analysis methods. Besides, the influence factors of the extreme temperature indices and the relationship between extreme temperature indices and climate change are also discussed. The results are as follows: 1) In the last 55 years, coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), coldest night (TNn), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P), summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm spell duration days (WSDI) and growing season length (GSL) indicate statistically significant increasing trends. Whereas, warmest day (TXx), cool days (TX10P), cool nights (TN10P), ice days (ID0), frost days (FD0), cold spell duration days (CSDI) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) have significantly decreasing trends. 2) In terms of spatial variations, the extreme cold temperature increase in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Nanyang Basin and the hilly area of Tongbai-Dabie mountainous area. Meanwhile, the increase of extreme warm temperature has mainly occurred in the western mountainous and hilly region of Henan Province. 3) Compared to other areas of China, the change rate of extreme temperature in Henan is slowly, in last 55 a, the cold days have significantly decreased. However, the change rate of extreme temperature of last 20 a has increased more than two times than last 55 a, this shows that the change rate of extreme temperature in Henan is accelerating. 4) Based on the correlation results, the variation of extreme temperature in Henan could indicate the climate change in this area. Besides, the topographic condition is the dominant factor for the spatial variations of the extreme temperature in Henan.

Key words: climate change, extreme temperature, temporal and spatial variation, Henan Province

中图分类号:

P467

高文华, 李开封, 崔豫. 1960~2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(8): 1259-1269.

Wenhua Gao, Kaifeng Li, Yu Cui. Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Temperature Events in Henan Province During 1960-2014[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(8): 1259-1269.

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分类	缩写	极端气温指数	定义	单位
相对指数	TX10p	冷昼日数	最高气温小于10%分位值的天数	d
	TN10p	冷夜日数	最低气温小于10%分位值的天数	d
	TX90p	暖昼日数	最高气温大于90%分位值的天数	d
	TN90p	暖夜日数	最低气温大于90%分位值的天数	d
绝对指数	ID0	冰冻日数	年内日最高温度低于0℃的天数	d
	FD0	霜冻日数	年内日最低温度低于0℃的天数	d
	SU25	夏季日数	年内日最低气温大于25℃的日数	d
	TR20	热夜日数	年内日最低气温大于20℃的日数	d
极值指数	TXx	日最高气温的极大值	年内每月日最高气温的最大值	℃
	TXn	日最高气温的极小值	年内每月日最高气温的最小值	℃
	TNx	日最低气温的极大值	年内每月日最低气温的最大值	℃
	TNn	日最低气温的极小值	年内每月日最低气温的最小值	℃
其它指数	WSDI	暖持续日数	连续6 d最高温在90%分位值日数	d
	CSDI	冷持续日数	连续6 d最低温在10%分位值日数	d
	GSL	生物生长季	年内首先出现平均气温至少连续6 d高于5℃的总日数及7月1日后平均气温至少连续6 d低于5℃的总日数	d
	DTR	气温日较差	年内日最高气温与最低气温的差值	℃

指数 (/10a)	河南			豫南^[20]	中国沿海^[30]	黄河流域^[31]	长江流域^[26]	中国^[32]
指数 (/10a)	1960~2014年		1990~2014年	1958~2013年	1960~2013年	1963~2013年	1962~2011年	1961~2008年
TX10p	-0.84	-2.11		-0.55^*	-0.70^**	-1.06^**	-0.84^*	-0.47
TN10p	-2.82^***	-4.77^***		-4.06^*	-2.19^***	-1.93^***	-2.78^***	-2.06^*
TX90p	0.22	2.01		0.07^**	1.31^***	1.56^***	2.24^***	0.62
TN90p	3.65^***	7.65^***		7.35^**	2.24^***	2.22^***	2.86^***	1.75^*
ID0	-0.49	0.37		-0.36^**	/	-2.4^***	-0.48^***	/
FD0	-3.93^***	-4.94		-3.78^**	/	-3.36^***	-3.29^***	-3.73
SU25	1.83^*	4.28		2.35^**	2.27^**	2.66^***	2.93^***	1.18
TR20	2.36^***	5.87^**		2.81^**	3.25^***	1.56^*	1.8^***	/
TXx	-0.12	0.69^**		-0.13^*	0.12^*	0.18^*	0.16^*	0.07
TXn	0.20	0.18		/	0.21^*	0.27^*	0.32^**	0.35^*
TNx	0.13^*	0.42^**		/	0.20^***	0.25^***	0.19^***	0.21^*
TNn	0.41^**	1.00^*		0.62^**	0.40^***	0.40^*	0.47^***	0.63^*
WSDI	0.25	0.96		/	/	1.48^***	0.83^***	/
CSDI	-0.24	-0.28		/	/	-1.12^***	-0.67^**	/
GSL	2.54^*	3.64		/	/	3.47^***	2.30^**	3.04
DTR	-0.18^***	-0.36^**		/	-0.12^***	-0.09^*	-0.07^*	-0.18^*

	黄淮海平原区			豫西黄土丘陵区		豫西山地丘陵区			南阳盆地区			桐柏山-大别山山地丘陵区
	均值		变化幅度		均值	变化幅度		均值	变化幅度	均值	变化幅度	均值	变化幅度
TN10p	19.01	-3.60*		16.19	-0.93*	18.61	-1.87*		18.96	-4.35*		19.31	-2.48*
TN90p	20.87	4.58*		18.36	2.16*	19.04	1.87*		21.27	5.60*		21.54	3.77*
TX10p	20.00	-0.95		16.89	-0.46	19.21	-1.05		20.90	-0.96		20.80	-0.11
TX90p	20.11	-0.42		18.21	1.80*	19.17	1.38*		19.99	-0.77		20.39	0.50
FD0	76.63	-4.74*		79.60	-2.35*	84.29	-2.78*		66.64	-5.70*		51.11	-3.05*
ID0	5.20	-0.48		5.37	-0.34	5.70	-0.62		3.11	-0.40*		4.00	-0.21*
SU25	144	1.61*		139	0.44	131	2.79*		143	1.85		143	2.28*
TR20	78.05	3.43*		70.65	0.31	52.64	0.77		82.22	3.57		89.95	2.14*
TNn	-10.46	0.49*		-9.99	0.20	-10.71	0.23		-9.08	0.49*		-8.73	0.62*
TNx	27.37	0.20*		27.05	-0.06	25.34	0.01		27.14	0.25*		28.53	0.28*
TXn	-2.00	0.18		-2.36	0.10	-2.53	0.25		-1.14	0.27		-1.94	0.20
TXx	38.50	-0.15		39.19	-0.11	37.85	-0.01		37.99	-0.14		37.38	0.01
CSDI	1.66	-0.32		1.59	0.13	1.76	-0.31		1.58	-0.21		2.80	0.10
DTR	10.12	-0.27*		10.15	-0.12*	10.87	0.00*		9.82	-0.32*		8.87	-0.17*
GSL	287	2.78*		285	1.28*	290	2.31*		299	4.44*		312	2.20*
WSDI	2.35	0.02*		3.55	0.80*	3.40	0.87*		3.44	0.11*		2.58	0.03*

平均气温	TN10p	TN90p	TX10p	TX90p	FD0	ID0	SU25	TR20
平均气温	-0.76^**	0.79^**	-0.73^**	0.62^**	-0.79^**	-0.35^**	0.70^**	0.70^**
平均气温	TNn	TNx	TXn	TXx	CSDI	DTR	GSL	WSDI
平均气温	0.52^**	0.37^**	0.38^**	0.22	-0.46^**	0.12	.0.65^**	0.46^**

	纬度	经度	海拔		纬度	经度	海拔
TX10p	-0.43	-0.10	-0.11	TXx	-0.11	-0.20	0.51^*
TX90p	-0.11	-0.66^**	0.88^**	TXn	-0.02	-0.14	0.18
TN10p	-0.11	-0.51^*	0.55^*	TNx	0.02	0.54^*	-0.43
TN90p	0.10	0.56^*	-0.57^*	TNn	-0.16	0.47^*	-0.60^**
SU25	-0.45	-0.23	0.45	WSDI	0.44	-0.74^**	0.73^**
ID0	-0.23	-0.09	-0.02	CSDI	0.12	-0.03	-0.29
TR20	0.09	0.64^**	-0.63^**	DTR	-0.15	-0.65^**	0.77^**
FD0	-0.13	-0.47^*	0.61^**	GSL	0.07	0.06	-0.01

1960~2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Temperature Events in Henan Province During 1960-2014

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