耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.012

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 1392-1402.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.012

耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例

张鹏岩^1,²(), 庞博¹, 何坚坚¹, 郭依¹, 朱连奇¹()

1.河南大学环境与规划学院, 河南开封 475004
2.城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心, 河南郑州 410001

收稿日期:2016-11-14 修回日期:2017-01-20 出版日期:2017-11-20 发布日期:2017-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介：张鹏岩（1983-）,男,吉林蛟河人,博士,副教授,研究方向为资源利用与环境保护。E-mail: pengyanzh@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（41601175）、河南省哲学社会科学规划项目（2014CJJ016）、河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划（152300410067）、河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划（16IRTSTHN012）项目资助

Coupling Relationship and Trend of Cultivated Land Productivity and Food Security: A Case Study of Henan Province

Pengyan Zhang^1,²(), Bo Pang¹, Jianjian He¹, Yi Guo¹, Lianqi Zhu¹()

1.College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan,China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordination Development, Zhengzhou 410001, Henan, China

Received:2016-11-14 Revised:2017-01-20 Online:2017-11-20 Published:2017-11-20
Supported by:
National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (General Program) (41601175), Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project of Henan Province (2014CJJ016), Foundation and Advanced Technology Research Plan of Henan Province (152300410067), University Science and Technology Innovation Team Support Plan of Henan Province (16IRTSTHN012).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

粮食是社会经济发展的重要保障。运用耕地、粮食安全测度模型对2005~2014年河南省粮食安全状况进行评估。结果表明：① 2005~2014年,农民种粮积极性上升10%,耕地压力指数下降71%,农民经济收益上升 13%,耕地重心向西南移动。 ② 不同指标对耕地生产力的贡献率具有差异性。2005~2009年粮种比对耕地生产力的贡献率最大,2010~2014年贡献率发生转移,粮食播种面积单位产量对耕地生产力的贡献率最大;10 a间,粮种比的贡献（69.77%）相对粮食单产的贡献（39.28%）更能促进河南省耕地生产力的提高。 ③ 耕地压力受到自然、社会等多方面因素影响。各指标间相关关系较强,种粮积极性与农民耕地保护能力的二者呈现负相关关系。

关键词: 粮食安全, 耕地压力指数, 驱动力模型, 河南省

Abstract:

Food is the important guarantee of the social and economic development. By taking the Henan Province agricultural data (2014-2015) as the indicator layer, this article assessed the food security in Henan Province by using standard cultivated land coefficient model, food resources carrying capacity, cultivated land pressure index model and food safety driving force model. The results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2014, the overall cultivated land productivity increased steadily, the farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain increased by 10% in study area, the pressure index of cultivated land decreased by 71%, the farmers’ income increased by 13%, and the gravity center of the cultivated land showed a southwest movement trend. It’s that cultivated land resource in 10 years appeared in the southwest area of cultivated land resource is higher than the northeast, the southwestern cities of cultivated land resources protection weak in northwestern region of Henan Province; 2) Between 2005 and 2009, the contribution rate of planting ratio of grain to the arable land productivity in Henan Province was 80.61%; In 2010-2014, contribution rate extreme value transferred to grain yield per unit, and its contribution rate was 100.37%; Compared with grain yield per unit area, planting ratio of grain had a leading role in improving the productivity of cultivated land in Henan Province. In addition, overall situation of cultivated land productivity will increase steadily, and cultivated land pressure coefficient and standard has obvious negative correlation between cultivated land coefficient, cultivated land pressure index space distribution in northern and eastern pressure is low, cultivated land pressure decrease gradually from west to east; 3) Fertilizer input, the farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and protection ability of cultivated land had a strong coupling relationship with food security; However, the farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain and protection ability of cultivated land presented a negative correlation. High cultivated land pressure index of Zhengzhou and Sanmenxia is the result of social and economic elements and natural geographical environment. In terms of Zhengzhou, the limited urban area within the scope of regional economic development, get more economic benefit, is the important foothold of its development. In terms of unit efficiency, the unit of second and third industry output value is much higher than the first industry, cultivated land become one of main way to obtain higher economic benefits. The behavior of lead to Zhengzhou City since 2005 cultivated land pressure index is high, and the food security situation showed a trend of deterioration.

Key words: food security, cultivated land pressure index, driving force model, Henan Province

中图分类号:

K903

张鹏岩, 庞博, 何坚坚, 郭依, 朱连奇. 耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(9): 1392-1402.

Pengyan Zhang, Bo Pang, Jianjian He, Yi Guo, Lianqi Zhu. Coupling Relationship and Trend of Cultivated Land Productivity and Food Security: A Case Study of Henan Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(9): 1392-1402.

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城市	年份
城市	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
郑州市	357.32	386.78	390.89	394.48	400.60	360.11	361.65	369.09	369.68	357.87
开封市	279.94	325.56	331.15	355.36	493.83	344.07	350.98	369.05	383.77	403.97
洛阳市	426.99	464.22	477.03	487.81	496.91	419.91	410.44	429.97	388.59	364.60
平顶山市	386.17	428.48	450.85	466.22	472.02	473.72	473.24	488.78	484.35	409.99
安阳市	427.28	527.05	582.90	600.77	611.13	594.08	604.07	633.70	646.98	668.67
鹤壁市	807.09	883.80	940.43	971.81	992.28	916.23	938.13	969.06	984.99	860.75
新乡市	623.83	670.32	705.68	723.11	721.16	646.33	664.69	691.63	699.22	688.08
焦作市	651.19	726.90	801.39	823.85	824.36	792.44	798.23	819.46	826.06	825.29
濮阳市	614.48	685.09	728.82	749.21	766.14	773.59	781.72	806.84	811.15	726.14
许昌市	488.09	559.61	568.47	591.00	598.38	573.50	579.25	592.51	593.23	600.47
漯河市	507.76	606.69	632.22	697.51	712.54	635.40	642.09	663.39	665.35	664.26
三门峡市	191.24	234.25	209.19	244.31	252.81	235.48	231.90	245.94	230.93	229.18
南阳市	269.01	306.30	337.15	362.95	371.31	355.84	366.59	383.65	391.73	379.08
商丘市	453.80	512.54	545.29	578.41	596.57	558.51	570.66	602.85	626.46	670.16
信阳市	462.31	572.88	596.66	660.16	674.98	487.48	497.59	507.95	508.25	481.22
周口市	413.64	483.53	527.80	560.15	573.07	563.64	588.06	622.68	653.57	671.32
驻马店市	443.26	523.91	510.39	549.63	566.95	538.35	551.10	569.20	573.68	548.77
济源市	369.52	430.04	422.24	443.95	448.68	378.41	376.10	387.20	387.31	351.75

	年份	MCI	R	CLSI	Y	GAPCL
增长率	2005~2009	-2.35	14.54	0.22	5.51	18.03
	2010~2014	-0.16	0.19	0.25	2.64	2.63
	2005~2014	-2.52	14.75	0.48	8.30	21.15
贡献率	2005~2009	-13.07	80.61	1.26	30.58	0
	2010~2014	-6.39	7.21	9.73	100.37	0
	2005~2014	-11.92	69.77	2.29	39.28	0

指标层	均值	中间值	最大值	最小值	标准差	样本个数
耕地压力指数	0.12	0.09	0.31	0.07	0.07	180
化肥投入	12.75	12.78	12.87	12.57	0.10	180
农药投入	8.82	8.83	8.89	8.67	0.07	180
机械投入	6.29	6.32	6.43	6.09	0.12	180
灌溉基础	5.62	5.62	5.66	5.54	0.04	180
劳动力投入	5.79	5.80	5.92	5.66	0.09	180
耕地经济效益	5.76	5.77	5.82	5.66	0.05	180
种粮比效益	-1.04	-1.04	-0.96	-1.11	0.06	180
农户经济效益	8.54	8.52	9.11	8.04	0.37	180

项目	化肥投入	农药投入	机械投入	灌溉基础	劳动力投入	耕地经济效益	种粮比效益	农户经济效益
系数	1.481	-1.336	-1.826	-0.102	0.028	0.630	0.583	0.160
贡献率（%）	59.935	28.582	8.177	3.032	0.190	0.054	0.027	0.004
Sig	0.596	0.526	0.462	0.736	0.970	0.618	0.719	0.632

农民种粮积极性					农民耕地保护能力
城市		参考系数	t	Sig	城市	参考系数	t	Sig
商丘市	5.273	4.294	0.146		周口市	1.887	0.627	0.643
许昌市	3.944	1.313	0.414		信阳市	1.305	0.385	0.766
信阳市	3.168	0.796	0.572		南阳市	1.091	2.817	0.217
郑州市	2.420	0.186	0.883		驻马店市	0.937	0.463	0.724
平顶山市	2.266	2.336	0.258		鹤壁市	0.291	10.355	0.061
开封市	1.109	1.373	0.401		焦作市	0.177	0.314	0.807
漯河市	0.536	0.716	0.604		三门峡市	-0.063	-0.048	0.969
鹤壁市	0.386	7.480	0.085		洛阳市	-0.064	-0.131	0.917
安阳市	0.295	0.216	0.865		开封市	-0.231	-1.001	0.500
洛阳市	0.226	0.156	0.901		济源市	-0.272	-1.946	0.302
濮阳市	0.206	1.013	0.496		新乡市	-0.345	-1.880	0.311
焦作市	0.027	0.034	0.979		濮阳市	-0.504	-5.274	0.119
济源市	-0.072	-0.230	0.856		平顶山市	-0.667	-0.807	0.568
新乡市	-0.088	-0.178	0.888		郑州市	-0.853	-0.180	0.887
三门峡市	-0.600	-0.248	0.845		许昌市	-1.016	-1.181	0.447
驻马店市	-0.954	-0.475	0.718		漯河市	-1.387	-3.069	0.201
周口市	-1.927	-0.655	0.631		商丘市	-2.544	-2.988	0.206
南阳市	-1.972	-2.794	0.219		安阳市	-2.988	-0.907	0.531

耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例

Coupling Relationship and Trend of Cultivated Land Productivity and Food Security: A Case Study of Henan Province

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标准耕地系数	年份
标准耕地系数	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年
CLSI<0.5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
CLSI∈[0.5~0.8]	4	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	3
CLSI∈[0.8~1.0]	4	2	2	3	2	4	4	4	4	4
CLSI>1	9	11	10	10	11	10	10	10	10	10
合计	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

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