徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应的时空异质性

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.10.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

整合ESDA和GWR 模型,以徐州都市圈为例,分析了2005~2014年成长型都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应强度及其影响因素的时空异质性特征,发现：① 研究期内徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应程度不断增强,同期各县域间差异呈持续增大趋势;② 徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应强度差异格局的多尺度性特征显著。城乡尺度上,呈现以地级市市区为中心向外围降低的圈层式区域格局;省际边界区域尺度上,呈现向鲁南>皖北>苏北>豫东的区域格局演变趋势;③ 强响应县域主要向京沪铁路沿线地区集聚,城镇空间扩展轴线正在形成。弱响应县域在皖苏、豫皖边界地区集中,形成了产业结构转型城镇空间响应强度较低走廊;④ HH型县域主要集中于地级市市区及其周围地区,LL型县域在豫皖苏边界区域的黄河故道沿线地区集聚,表明南北差异正成为徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应强度关联性差异的主要表征;⑤ 徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应的主要影响因素作用程度呈现对外开放>经济水平>创新能力>政府调控能力的特征,且空间不均衡性显著。

关键词: 产业结构转型, 城镇空间响应强度, 时空异质性, 徐州都市圈

Abstract:

using the methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Geographical weighted regression model (GWR), the article analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban space response to industrial structure transformation and its influencing factors of Xuzhou metropolitan area, a growing metropolitan, from 2005 to 2014. There are five main findings: First, the strength of urban space response to industrial structure transformation showed an upward trend in Xuzhou metropolitan area, and the difference among the various counties increased continuously at the same time. Second, The difference pattern of the strength of urban space response to industrial structure transformation in Xuzhou metropolitan area had significant multi-scale characteristics. In urban and rural scale, it showed a circle distribution pattern which gradually reduced from the center of prefecture-level city to the surrounding country; in inter-provincial border region scale, South Shandong had the highest urban space response, followed by North Anhui, North Jiangsu and East Henan. Third, The counties with high urban space response mainly distributed along the Beijing-Shanghai Railway (Xuzhou-Jining), and urban space expansion axis was forming. The low urban space response area mainly agglomerated in the border between Anhui and Jiangsu, Henan and Anhui. Fourth, the H-H counties mainly distributed in the center of prefecture-level city and its surrounding area, and the L-L counties mainly located in the old course of Yellow River area through the North Jiangsu, East Henan and North Anhui, which showed that the difference between the South and the North of Xuzhou metropolitan area are becoming the main characteristics of urban space response level to industrial structure transformation. Finally, we found that the level of opening had the greatest effects on urban space response, followed by economic development, innovation ability and government management; furthermore, the spatial imbalance was significant.

Key words: industrial structure transformation, strength of urban space response, spatio-temporal difference, Xuzhou metropolitan area

中图分类号:

TU984

仇方道, 金娜, 袁荷, 单勇兵, 白亮宇. 徐州都市圈产业结构转型城镇空间响应的时空异质性[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(10): 1459-1468.

Fangdao Qiu, Na Jin, He Yuan, Yongbing Shan, Liangyu Bai. Spatio-temporal Difference of Influencing Factors and Strength of Urban Space Response to the Transition of Industrial Structure in Xuzhou Metropolitan Area[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(10): 1459-1468.

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指标	2005年	2010年	2014年
Local R²	0.4862~0.8820	0.4338~0.9736	0.6782~0.8600
Sigma	0.0369	0.03074	0.0554
R²	0.8539	0.9602	0.8862
调整R²	0.7685	0.9260	0.8309
AICc	-129.1014	-131.7737	-100.3681

	经济水平	对外开放	政府调控能力	创新能力
2005年	0.0153	0.0229	0.0095	0.0151
2010年	0.0219	0.0200	0.0088	0.0011
2014年	0.0087	0.0201	-0.0080	0.0148