合肥市商业地价驱动因素的空间非平稳性分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.10.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于微观因素的视角,对合肥市商业地价的空间格局、空间异质性进行空间插值和回归分析,研究发现： ① 商业地价空间格局呈现多中心的结构,峰值区集中分布在城市中心,低值区分布在二环线以外的地区;② GWR模型能清晰地反映出各因素对地价影响力的空间差异,容积率、交通站点、CBD和公园是研究区商业地价的关键驱动因素;③ 较之外在因素,内在因素对商业地价的边际作用效率较大,其中尤以容积率最为突出;④ 相较于欠发达地区,容积率在高度发达的区域对地价的正向效应更为显著,而交通站点和CBD对地价的作用正好相反。商业开发更愿意为小型公园支付更高的价格。

关键词: 商业地价, 驱动因素, 空间非平稳性, 地理加权回归, 合肥

Abstract:

Land is a kind of scarce non-renewable natural resources. Price mechanism plays a key role in the rational allocation and effective utilization of land resources, especially in the rapid development of large cities where land use changes frequently. Therefore, quantitative study on the spatial characteristics between land price and its driving factors is critical. Based on the perspective of micro driving factors of land price, the spatial pattern and spatial heterogeneity of commercial land price in Hefei are analyzed by Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW) and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR). The study shows that: 1) The spatial pattern of commercial land price presents a multi-center structure, the peak district of land price in the central area of the city, and the low value area outside the second ring road in the city. 2) The GWR model based on the local statistical analysis can clearly reflect the spatial difference of the influence of driving factors on land price. Floor area ratio, D_traf, D_park and D_CBDare the key driving factors of commercial land price in the study area. 3) Compared with the external driving factors of commercial land price, the marginal effect of internal factors on commercial land price is greater, especially the influence of the floor area ratio on commercial land price is the most prominent. 4) Compared with the less developed areas, the effect of floor area ratio in highly developed areas enhancing the land price is more significant. However, the role mechanism of D_traf and D_CBD on commercial land prices is just the opposite. In addition, business development and construction are more willing to pay a higher price for a small park. However, the infrastructure’s imperfection, as well as ecological conservation requirements(close to some large parks) will have a negative impact. The outputs of this article, that provide detailed information on the relationships between commercial land price and driving factors in study areas, are promising for urban planners to scientifically evaluate land price and make area-specific strategies.

Key words: commercial land price, driving factors, spatially non-stationary, GWR model, Hefei City

中图分类号:

F293.3

王爱, 陆林, 包善驹. 合肥市商业地价驱动因素的空间非平稳性分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(10): 1535-1545.

Ai Wang, Lin Lu, Shanju Bao. Spatially Non-stationary Analysis Between Commercial Land Price and Driving Factors in Hefei City[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(10): 1535-1545.

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驱动因素		参数表示	量化标准	描述性统计
驱动因素		参数表示	量化标准	r	P值	VIF
外在因素	CBD	D_CBD	宗地至CBD的最短距离	-0.28	0.01	4.85
	大学	D_col	宗地至大学的最短距离	-0.35	0.01	4.42
	中小学	D_sch	宗地至优质中小学的最短距离	-0.21	0.05	2.17
	公园	D_park	宗地至公园的最短距离	-0.27	0.01	3.32
	医院	D_hosp	宗地至大型医院的最短距离	-0.42	0.01	4.64
	主干路	D_road	宗地至城市主干路的最短距离	-0.20	0.05	1.38
	交通站点	D_traf	宗地至交通站点的最短距离	-0.32	0.01	3.53
内在因素	宗地面积	Area	宗地的具体面积	-0.14	0.05	1.05
内在因素	容积率	Far	宗地的容积率	0.26	0.01	1.06

因素	平均值	最小值	最大值	标准差	下四分位值	中值	上四分位值
CBD	-0.069	-0.909	0.953	0.220	0.051	-0.104	-0.188
大学	-0.017	-2.640	2.583	0.556	0.186	0.050	-0.224
中小学	0.065	-1.966	0.850	0.297	0.166	0.070	-0.034
公园	0.091	-0.896	2.038	0.289	0.137	0.087	-0.004
医院	-0.068	-3.258	2.850	0.663	0.012	-0.073	-0.280
主干路	-0.279	-3.779	0.747	0.626	0.010	-0.211	-0.471
交通站点	-0.143	-0.888	0.623	0.242	0.308	-0.084	0.000
宗地面积	-0.573	-30.840	6.245	2.831	-0.016	-0.170	-1.105
容积率	39.058	-25.750	271.22	50.421	53.269	21.569	5.550